Applications and prospects of river basin simulators in digital river basin development and hydropower forecasting and scheduling enhancement

Abstract

[Objective] To comprehensively enhance the capacity for hydropower forecasting and scheduling at the scale of a river basin in China, it is imperative to accelerate the development of digital river basin systems based on the theoretical foundation of water system science, in which the “river basin simulator” plays an increasingly important role as a core supporting tool. [Methods] Based on typical application practices in the Yangtze River Basin, the research and development background, technical system, and engineering application outcomes of the “Yangtze River Simulator”(a representative river basin simulator platform) were systematically elaborated, focusing on the key value of water system science and river basin simulation technologies in hydropower scheduling management and in response to extreme hydrological events. The platform integrated core technologies including hydrological monitoring, real-time sensing, and model coupling, through which a multi-scale dynamic simulation and forecasting system for basin water systems was established, enabling simulation and prediction of complex river basin hydrological evolution processes. [Results] Practical applications showed that the river basin simulator could significantly improve the spatiotemporal resolution and the system simulation ability to reduce uncertainties through observation and multi-mode in medium-and long-term hydrological forecasting, while enhancing the scientific validity and response efficiency of multi-objective reservoir group optimized scheduling strategies. Notably, they demonstrated effective capabilities in decision support and risk prevention, especially when addressing sudden hydrological events such as extreme floods and droughts. [Conclusion] China's practical experience indicates that digital river basin development driven by river basin simulators can improve the accuracy of hydrological forecasting and the coordination efficiency of joint reservoir scheduling, and demonstrating system adaptability and operational resilience under extreme hydrological change conditions. Looking ahead, future efforts should focus on addressing challenges such as water system evolution and uncertainties driven by the constantly changing environment. The integrated development of complex “river-reservoir” system simulators should be promoted, and the system construction of multi-objective reservoir group optimized scheduling large models should be deepened. Furthermore, cross-sectoral coordination mechanisms and joint efforts in key technologies should be strengthened, and the in-depth application and capacity improvement of river basin simulators within the digital river basin system should be continuously advanced.

Keywords

digital river basin / water system science / river basin simulator / intelligent river basin management / risk assessment / Yangtze River Basin / digital twin / flood forecasting