Research on scenario simulation and driving factors of ecosystem service value in Tumen River Basin based on PLUS model

Abstract

[Objective] This study aims to reveal the intrinsic relationship between land use and land cover(LULC) in ecological function zones and ecosystem service value(ESV), which is crucial for effectively maximizing ecosystem benefits and advancing regional ecological civilization. [Methods] The ESV of the Tumen River Basin was assessed using modified standard equivalent factors. Geodetector was used to analyze the relationships between ESV and potential influencing factors, including temperature(TEM), precipitation(PRE), normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI), elevation(DEM), soil organic matter content(SOMC), and human activity intensity on land surfaces(HAILS), as well as their influence on the spatiotemporal evolution of ESV. Furthermore, based on the Territorial Spatial Plan of Jilin Province(2021—2035) and the Overall Territorial Spatial Plan of Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture(2021—2035), the PLUS model was used for spatially constrained multi-scenario settings to explore the spatial changes of ESV in the Tumen River Basin under the natural development scenario(S1) and the target-oriented scenario(S2) in 2030. [Results] The result indicated that from 2000 to 2020, the total ESV of the study area fluctuated but showed an overall upward trend, with the largest increase observed between 2005 and 2010, where the ESV increased by 0.87×10¹⁰ yuan within five years. Forestland contributed the highest ESV, accounting for nearly 94% of the total value. Regulating service value(RSV) and supporting service value(SSV) were the dominant ecosystem services. Geodetector result showed that HAILS(q=0.678) was the primary factor influencing the spatial variation of ESV, followed by TEM(q=0.470) and NDVI(q=0.435), while DEM and SOMC had relatively minor impacts. Correlation analysis revealed that ESV was negatively correlated with the landscape shape index(SI)(-0.65) but positively correlated with the Shannon diversity index(SHDI)(0.72) and aggregation index(AI)(0.60). The PLUS simulation result indicated that, by 2030, forestland would still have the highest ESV. The unit ESV of different land use types in 2030, predicted by the grey model(GM)(1,1) were: cultivated land, 3 394.79 yuan/hm²; grassland, 10 367.71 yuan/hm²; water areas, 107 954.26 yuan/hm²; unused land, 558.64 yuan/hm²; and wetlands, 44 708.07 yuan/hm². [Conclusion] The observed changes in high-value and low-value ESV areas under different scenarios further validate the scientific basis of the Plans and the necessity of their implementation. This study provides spatial visualization analysis and data support for achieving planning goals by predicting the spatial evolution of ESV under different land resource management strategies. Additionally, it serves as a reference for comprehensive land resources and environmental protection planning and the sustainable development of ecological function zones in China's northeastern border area.

Keywords

ESV / scenario simulation / LULC / PLUS model / driving factors / influencing factors