Modal Shift Potential of Different Mode Users Due to Introduction of the First MRT in Dhaka: A Prelaunch Study

Abstract

Dhaka city is experiencing tremendous growth in traffic. Until recently, the city’s demand for traffic was entirely served by public buses, a mix of motorized and non-motorized paratransit, and private personalized transport. The first ever rail-based metro, mass rapid transit (MRT), namely MRT Line 6, was partially inaugurated on 28 December 2022. Authority expects that there will be visible modal shift. However, MRT systems in many Asian and European countries are attracting much lower private motorists than what is expected. Moreover, in Dhaka, a unique mix in road-based transport with public transit and varieties of paratransit and private personalized vehicles intensifies the uncertainties involved in modal shift. Therefore, based on a field survey done before four (04) months of the partial inauguration of MRT Line 6, this study intends to explore the modal shift potentials of different mode users to a completely new mode and the modal choice factors. The analysis of the results finds overall, 75% of all mode users are willing to shift, while para and public transit users are comparatively more willing than private personalized vehicle users. However, such willingness comes up with one or more conditions: comfort, reasonable fare, reduced total travel time, less crowd, etc. The study finds that affordability, availability, and accessibility factors have an influence on their modal shift behavior. Also, results from binary logistic model identify significant impact of several sociodemographic, trip- and accessibility-related factors influencing modal shift choice. Findings from this study explain the optimism regarding MRT by different mode users and inform the decision-makers about their course of actions including different interventions, strict and carrot approaches to hold on to the potential shifters and attract more.

References

[1] Roy AK, Labony Z (2019) RSTP A COMPREHENSIVE STUDY. School of Applied sciences & Technology, SUST, Sylhet

[2] DTCA (2023) Updating the Revised Strategic Transport Plan for Dhaka. Interim Report 2. Ministry of Road Transport and Bridges, Road Transport and Highways Division,GoB

[3] Fraszczyk A, Weerawat W, Kirawanich P. Commuters’ willingness to shift to metro: a case study of Salaya, Thailand. Urban Rail Transit, 2019, 5: 240-253.

[4] Vu Anh Tuan (2023) Examining Modal Shift to Public Transport in Developing Asian Cities: A Case Study in Hanoi City, Vietnam. JTTE 11:. https://doi.org/10.17265/2328-2142/2023.04.004

[5] DMTCL (2024) DHAKA MASS TRANSIT COMPANY LIMITED (DMTCL)-GOVERNMENT OWNED COMPANY. http://www.dmtcl.gov.bd/. Accessed 10 Mar 2024

[6] Chiu Chuen O, Karim MR, Yusoff S. Mode choice between private and public transport in Klang Valley, Malaysia. Sci World J, 2014, 2014: e394587.

[7] Wang YQ, Li L, Wang ZC, et al. . Mode shift behavior impacts from the introduction of metro service: case study of Xi’an, China. J Urban Plan Dev, 2013, 139: 216-225.

[8] Sohoni AV, Thomas M, Rao KVK. Mode shift behavior of commuters due to the introduction of new rail transit mode. Transp Res Proc, 2017, 25: 2603-2618.

[9] Department for Transport (UK) (2011) Public attitudes to climate change and the impact of transport in 2011. In: GOV.UK. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/public-attitudes-to-climate-change-and-the-impact-of-transport-in-2011. Accessed 10 Mar 2024

[10] Youssef Z, Alshuwaikhat H, Reza I. Modeling the modal shift towards a more sustainable transport by stated preference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Sustainability, 2021, 13: 337.

[11] Cats O, Susilo YO, Reimal T. The prospects of fare-free public transport: evidence from Tallinn. Transportation, 2017, 44: 1083-1104.

[12] Febriani D, Olivia CM, Sholilah SA, Hidajat M. Analysis of modal shift to support MRT-based urban transportation in Jakarta. J Phys Conf Ser, 2020, 1573: 012015.

[13] Shakya S (2022) Analyzing willingness to shift to proposed metro rail system for work trips: a case of new baneshwor and radhe radhe. Thesis, I.O.E. Pulchowk Campus

[14] Bhaduri E, Goswami AK, Moeckel R. How sustainable is the growth of mass transit system in developing countries–an Indian perspective. Transp Res Procedia, 2020, 48: 2706-2724.

[15] Kakar KA, Prasad CSRK. Modal shift by using ordinal regression model in terms of bus rapid transit system introduction. Innov Infrastruct Solut, 2022, 8: 22.

[16] Lesteven G (2016) Behavioral Responses to Traffic Congestion – Findings from Paris, São Paulo and Mumbai. In: Traffic Management. Wiley, pp 121–138

[17] Boussauw K, Vanoutrive T. Transport policy in Belgium: translating sustainability discourses into unsustainable outcomes. Transp Policy, 2017, 53: 11-19.

[18] Wójcik S (2019) The determinants of travel mode choice: the case of Łódź, Poland. In: Bulletin of Geography Socio-economic Series, pp 93–101. https://doi.org/10.2478/bog-2019-0018

[19] Witchayaphong P, Pravinvongvuth S, Kanitpong K, et al. . Influential factors affecting travelers’ mode choice behavior on mass transit in Bangkok, Thailand. Sustainability, 2020, 12: 9522.

[20] Li J, Lo K, Guo M. What influences the choice between private car and public transport for shopping trips? impact of socio-economic and built environment factors. J Asian Energy Stud, 2019,

[21] Hamidun R, Sarani R, Yunin NAM, et al. . Factors Influencing the use of MRT service in Klang Valley, Malaysia. Construction, 2023, 3: 275-284.

[22] Calvo F, Eboli L, Forciniti C, Mazzulla G. Factors influencing trip generation on metro system in Madrid (Spain). Transp Res Part D Transp Environ, 2019, 67: 156-172.

[23] Song MZ, Zhang Y, Li M, Zhang Y. Accessibility of transit stops with multiple feeder modes: walking and private-bike cycling. Sustainability, 2021, 13: 3522.

[24] DMTCL (2024) Timetable. DMTCL. https://dmtcl.gov.bd/site/page/d95a6907-4278-4a36-8a90-ee38c2dd43e8/http%3A%2F%2Fdmtcl.gov.bd%2Fsite%2Fpage%2Fd95a6907-4278-4a36-8a90-ee38c2dd43e8%2FTimetable. Accessed 14 Mar 2024

[25] DMTCL (2024) MRT Line 6. https://dtca.gov.bd/site/page/5e1416b8-ed34-4283-8679-e657a3fb9379/http%3A%2F%2Fdtca.gov.bd%2Fsite%2Fpage%2F5e1416b8-ed34-4283-8679-e657a3fb9379%2F-. Accessed 14 Mar 2024

[26] The Financial Express (2018) Introducing feeder bus service | The Financial Express. https://thefinancialexpress.com.bd/views/opinions/introducing-feeder-bus-service-1534782081. Accessed 14 Mar 2024

[27] MoRTB (2016) Metro Rail Act 2015. https://dmtcl.gov.bd/site/page/84cf8279-9bfc-45d6-9937-cbdc9b12a346/http%3A%2F%2Fdmtcl.gov.bd%2Fsite%2Fpage%2F84cf8279-9bfc-45d6-9937-cbdc9b12a346%2F-. Accessed 27 Apr 2024

[28] DMTCL (2015) Gender Action Policy. https://dmtcl.portal.gov.bd/sites/default/files/files/dmtcl.portal.gov.bd/policies/24a2d0e9_4f30_49b5_9d42_3ac3e8963742/d4c141db2d47be261286bf42fe3b4532.pdf. Accessed 27 Apr 2024

[29] MoRTB (2013) National Integrated Multimodal Transport Policy 2013. Ministry of Road Transport and Bridges, Road Transport and Highways Division,GoB

[30] DTCA (2015) Urban Transport Policy. https://dtca.portal.gov.bd/sites/default/files/files/dtca.portal.gov.bd/page/489fc4f6_77f0_4dac_8103_eac42b6429c4/UrbanTransport%20Policy%20(RSTP).pdf. Accessed 27 Apr 2024

[31] DTCA (2019) Draft Parking Policy. https://dtca.portal.gov.bd/sites/default/files/files/dtca.portal.gov.bd/page/281b8363_f239_4e42_a323_4d04fa029ef2/2020-03-12-12-04-bb1d52de33cdf9f11806e44751c80e0c.pdf. Accessed 27 Apr 2024

Funding

Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology,