According to the experience and problems of seismic monitoring and earthquake prediction for many years in China, it was discussed the earthquake mechanism, preliminary methods for prediction research and the mechanism and miss report of Wenchuan Earthquake, analyzed prediction precursor of short-term and impending earthquake, seismometry application limitation and ground stress transfer and track, and put forward 9 suggestions for future earthquake prediction.
The characteristic of large scale and deep layer on dynamic force of Wenchuan Earthquake occurrence has been recognized. The seismicity before Wenchuan Earthquake of May 12, 2008 has been studied, by using the data from 1977 to May, 2008. The characteristics, such as intersection between big and small circularities, between strips in globe scale, and earthquake activity enhanced in deep layer, are important phenomena before Wenchuan Earthquake. Such characteristics have already been found in the phenomena before Tangshan Earthquake in 1976. The directions of particle movement at intersections between strips, circularities, and strip and circularity are different from each other and are locked to each other. Since particle movement cannot be easy released, it will make stress concentric and become a location of large earthquake occurrence. The characteristic of lock in deep layer is not easy to find by observation at shallower earth surface, that means some difficult to detect precursor on the great earthquake. Since the disaster of a great earthquake is very serious, it should be enhanced to collect and study on information of large scale and deep layer.
This paper presents the major lessons learnt from the recently occurred devastating earthquake of May 12, 2008 in the Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province. It discussed some bottle-neck questions existing in the current earthquake disaster prevention work of the China, such as low quality construction in both rural and town area, seismic hazard assessment and seismic zoning, earthquake induced geological hazard, and earthquake prediction etc., and pointed out that the civil engineering prevention method is the best choice for the solution of reducing earthquake losses and mitigating earthquake disasters.
The big Wenchuan Earthquake has passed for a year, but the huge disaster caused by the earthquake cannot be forgotten yet. The scientific development view should be better carried out and the earthquake mechanism should be analyzed thoroughly, so that effective scientific reference can be provided for consideration of the prevention and reduction of future disaster.
In this paper the damages and behaviors of dams, especially for the 4 dams with a height over 100 m, in the area affected by the devastative Wenchuan Earthquake on May 12, are briefly described. The lessons concerning dam safety learnt from the quake are preliminarily drawn. Some critical problems related to the seismic safety of dams in China are discussed. The strategic priority of dam safety for large dam in China and the corresponding tactics to overcome its main obstacles are suggested. Finally, some suggestions and comments for improving seismic safety of dams in China are provided.
The aerial photogrammetry is the main method of surveying and mapping, and it can mosaic thousands of aerial images into the ortho-image and provide us detailed information about the disaster area. But the traditional Digital Photogrammetry Workstation (DPW) is based on serial computing and cannot process the unconventional aerial photogrammetry data, so it cannot meet the needs of high production efficiency and rapid respond. The paper introduces the application of Digital Photogrammetry Grid System in the fast response for China earthquake rescue, and discusses its distributed computing technique and key analyses method for unconventional aerial photogrammetry data.
The engineering management of medical emergent rescue in severe natural disaster was discussed following Chinese Wenchuan Earthquake. It is illustrated that the medical rescue is much more important and difficult in such a severe sudden incident. The great achievement and problems of the medical rescue in Wenchuan Earthquake were discussed in detail. On the basis of these discussions, the thinking and suggestions for enhancement of medical rescue in the level of macro policy, medicine and health, as well as education and training were given in these papers.
At present China's air emergency rescue ability lags far behind, which urgently requires planning and constructing China's air emergency rescue systems nationwide. As soon as possible, we should work out "the Master Plan for China National Air Emergency Rescue Systems Construction" , strengthen the architecture of air equipment and air infrastructure, set up the administrative agency for the national air anti-disaster and rescue actions, expedite the opening up of the low-altitude airspace, establish the specially-trained air emergency rescue troops, heighten the air emergency rescue capabilities, and build China's national air emergency rescue systems with Chinese characteristics.
This thesis briefly introduces the emergency handling of Tangjiashan barrier lake. Combined with practice, it concludes the rapid capture and application technique of the relative landform, geologic and water information for barrier lake. From the form condition and process, the form mechanism of barrier dam is analysed analyzes.The security of barrier dam is evaluated and analyzed, and the flood propagation after the dam break is calculated. Finally, the emergency handling scheme, digging channel and draining scheme and the handling effects are briefly introduced.
Since 1700, M≥7strong earthquakes have had an obvious commensurability and orderliness in the north block of Tibet Plateau. The main orderly values are 53~54 a, 26~27 a, 11~12 a and 3~4 a. According to the information prediction theory of Weng Wenbo and self-organization network technology, we try to explore the practical method for strong earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics, and conceive strong earthquake with magnitude 7 informational network structure. Based on this, the 2008 Wenchuan M 8.0 great earthquake was predicted and M≥7 strong earthquakes will happen around 2012, 2016 and 2027 in this area. Meanwhile, the cause of formation about Wenchuan Earthquake has been discussed primarily. The results show that strong earthquake and strong earthquake chain can be predicted. This method has a unique effect on mid-and-long term prediction for strong earthquake.
Some significant inspirations have been received based on the study of anti -seismic relief practice in the major disaster of the Wenchuan Earthquake which shocks the whole world.These inspirations are as follows:saving lives is the first task, information maintains lives, emergency pre -plan has been broken through,professional emergency rescue plays a role,and the public scientific accomplishment was examined, and so on. Seizing these inspirations, persisting in puting people first, perfecting the construction of earthquake emergency rescue system, one may get ready for major disaster rescue at all times, and will realize the purpose of saving people's lives and reducing property lose.
Is earthquake predictable? This question has been discussed a lot by earthquake researchers and common people after the Wenchuan Earthquake.The specialists in Chinese Earthquake Prediction Consultation Committee started the aftershock prediction research after the earthquake to support emergency rescue and disaster relief with practical action.From May 15 to August 15, the committee formally reported prediction results for 3 times and the three strong aftershocks, i.e.M 6.0 earthquake on May 18 in Jiangyou, M 6.4 earthquake on May 25 in Qingchuan and M 6.1 earthquake on August 1 in Beichuan, have been correctly predicted.Through predicting aftershock isn't so difficult as predicting main shock, those people who think earthquake can be predicted after decades of generations and despise the academic viewpoint that earthquake is predictable should think over the fact that the prediction of all three aftershocks was correct without any miss report, and treat the academic viewpoint equally.
The method of earthquake short-term and impending prediction by using tidal wave (abbr HRTwave method) is a new, quantitative technology of simultaneous determination of the location, magnitude and time of an earthquake.The earthquake preparation processes and precursor mechanism are considered as a "blackbox" .Using the modern control theory in system recognition, we can calibrate this "black box" mathematically with different input and output parameters.We regard the tidal force as our "input signal" while geoelectric response to the tidal forces is considered as an "output" .
According to many years of earthquake prediction exploring work based on analysis of drought -earthquake relations and ordered strong earthquake activities and the method of strong geomagnetic storm combinations,the paper briefly reviewed the consecutive three year studies of seismic activities in the Sichuan-Gansu-Qinghai-Shaanxiregion, especially within the Sichuan Abazhou area, and revealed the main points of the "Urgent advice to enhance strong earthquake short-term/imminent monitoring and analysis prediction contingency work for the Sichuan-Gansu-Qinghai-Shaanxi region" report submitted to the China seismological Bureau on Dec.8, 2005.
Earthquake is difficult to forecast, but it doesn't happen without signs or unknown,our country has the case summary for every large earthquake.Statistics clearly show that there have been 77 predictions about middle -term, short -term or imminent earthquakes in the last 40 years.Therefore, success in Chinese earthquake prediction could not be denied only because of failure in Wenchuan Earthquake prediction.China's earthquake prediction score should be positive,and Wenchuan Earthquake is not a "strange shock" without any precursor.
The focal point of this paper is to use the principle and method of systems sciences to prove that the standpoint of the mainstream earthquake scientists is unscientific and unreasonable, namely, the earthquake can't be forecasted essentially, and to prove the opposed standpoint is scientific and reasonable, namely, roughly estimate the range of time and location of the strong shock to a certain degree, and lead masses to know beforehand. To have limited space, this paper further proves the conclusion with only 2 examples only.
Based on the characteristics of large spacing masonry buildings with few transverse walls and theseismic hazards on teaching buildings, the authors analyzed the effects of constructional columns and ring beams to the seismic resistance of buildings and presented the concept of improving ductility of buildings.Some suggestions were then proposed for the design of this type of structures.
An earthquake preparation physical model was established based on observation data of sand layer stress instrument in Changping and Xiji, Beijing, earthquake precursor in the past 30 years observed by this instrument and precursor of Indonesia Earthquake (M =8.7) on December 26, 2004.The short-term and impending precursor of Wenchuan Earthquake recorded by the sand layer stress instrument was in accordance with this model.The observed short-term and impending abnormal stage change of time and shape appeared in March,2008, which was in accordance with the observation results of satellite thermal infrared and other testing methods in the aspect of time, had very obvious characters of impending earthquake anomaly.
The equitableness to long-distance of the disaster reduction aims at improving the bad condition of some structural parts, and seeking optimization of the whole system.Under certain constraints, by partition and deformation of the territory, localization of the center and the corresponding long-distance operation mechanism, the disturbance of the disadvantage factors to the system may be reduced, the bottleneck can be technically eliminated, expectation and achieving-degree of the technical indexes in a weaker condition can be improved.The equitableness to long-distance can remedy system's flaw by the long-distance mechanism or construct the complete system in an incomplete condition, safeguard the interest of the whole and the far effect, scientize the disaster reduction management, and improve the disaster reduction work in each aspects.
Earthquake prediction is an undertaking of public welfare.But earthquakes cannot be successfully predicted at present due to technological reasons.Earthquake prediction should be studied earnestly to adapt the demand of society for earthquake prediction at present.In order to study the possiblity of predicting the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake occurred on May 12,2008, based on the earthquake information itsself, this paper has suggesed a kind of numerical modeling method for predicting the earthquake magnitudes,and a method for predicting seismogenic areas by means of the Outgoing-Long-Wave-Radiation (OLR) information of satellite remote sensing. The results show that it is a technically feasible approach.
According to the index of solar activity we predicted in 2006 that during 2007 ~2008 an earthquake M >7 will possibly occur in segment between Tianshui and Kangding.Based on the flood-earthquake chain along the latitude circle of 30°,we predicted in the end of 2007 that an earthquake M6 ~7 will possibly occur in Kangding region in 2008.