This article first analyzes the strategic trend of energy development in the world, and the current situation, problems and challenges of energy in China. Then it proposes the guiding thought and principles for China's mid-long term development strategy of energy, emphasizing that a new energy strategy with Chinese characteristics must incorporate the Scientific Outlook on Development and it will secure the rational demand by scientific supply. The article defines the strategic position of different development stages of China's energy in the first half of the 21st century, and sets forth the basic content of "China's scientific, green and low carbon energy strategy" and its 6 sub-strategies. The sub-strategies include: a.to strengthen the strategy of "saving first with control of the total" , introducing a concept of "ceiling" for the consumption of coal and oil; b.to explore coal in a scientific way and to use it in clean and high efficient way and to adjust its position in China's energy strategy, introducing the concepts of "Scientific Producing Capacity of Coal" and "Degree of Clean Use of Coal" ; c.to secure the strategic pillar position of oil and natural gas, taking natural gas as one of the key points in adjusting the energy composition; d.to actively develop hydro power and non-hydro renewable energy, developing them into one of the green pillars to China's energy; e.to actively develop nuclear energy taking it as a strategic choice for the sustainable development of China's energy; f.to develop highly efficient, safe, and smart grid system adoptable to multi-power sources characterized in China, and to develop off-grid power using and energy-storage technologies. "China's scientific, green and low carbon energy strategy" is an economy and environment "win-win" strategy, constituting an important part in the national strategy addressing the climate change. As the implementation of "China's scientific, green and low carbon energy strategy" requires strong support of science and technology, the article proposes 3 levels of support by science and technology. It also gives the perspective of the development of energy in China in the first half of 21st century. Finally, it proposes several critical suggestions to the implementation of the above strategy.
The paper explored the urgent needs of scientific development practice and economic development pattern transform. The integrated economic effectiveness of energy conservation and intensity decrease were analyzed,and the economic rationality of energy conservation priority strategy was identified. The paper assessed the integrated economic benefit of energy conservation effort during the "11th Five-Year Plan" period. With data and facts, it was approved that the energy conservation efforts achieved great economic benefit. The paper analyzed the macro-economic effectiveness contributed by efforts of energy conservation in the "12th Five-Year Plan" period to support the transform of economic development pattern, and to achieve long term sustainability of economic growth.
The environmental impacts of energy use over last decade and environmental damages cost by coal exploitation and use, which is 185.6 Yuan/t coal, were analyzed. The four key challenges of China's energy development were pointed out, and environmental protection targets in sustainable energy development to improve the environmental quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions were proposed. According to the main air pollutants emissions control targets, the possible constraints on coal consumption were discussed. Meanwhile, the strategic measures and policy recommendations to achieve green and low-carbon energy development were presented.
The main reason of energy demand growth in China from the perspective of life cyce of society was analyzed. After that, the basic concept of energy saving for China was analyzed, and the importantce to distinguish the construction energy consumption and the operation energy consumption were pointed out. Then, the strategic goal of mid-long term energy saving of China, and three ways to implement it were proposed and they were: institutional energy saving, systematic energy saving and technological energy saving. And a case study of systematic energy saving for the problem of the life time of domestic building was also introduced.
The state of current China building energy use is presented. It is classified into the energy for space heating in North urban buildings, energy for space heating in Yangtze River area, energy for urban residential buildings, energy for non-residential buildings as well as energy for rural residential buildings. The characters, problems and key points for saving energy for each classification above were discussed in detail. Comparison with real building energy data in developed countries was also made in order to get clear idea on current China building energy state. It shows that current China building energy use is much lower than developed countries whatever in terms of per capita or in terms of building floor area. This is mainly due to the different lifestyles and different modes of building use. It is important to maintain the thrift mode in China in order to achieve the Chinese building energy conservation target. This should be the start point to design Chinese building energy strategy. As different lifestyles and different building use modes do need different technique measures, we should develop our own approach to realize their low building energy use target rather than follow the approaches that what happened in the developed countries.
On the basis of analyzing the current status and development trends of LED(light emitting diode) lighting industry in both international and domestic markets, the technical road-map for China's LED lighting, as well as the research results of long-term energy saving potential of LED lighting under different development scenarios were presented. In the end, some suggestion and policies of how to facilitate China's LED lighting development were pointed out.
Aiming at the current status and difficulties of coal mining, a new concept of sustainable capacity of coal mining was proposed in order to promote the sustainable development of China's coal industry and change its negative image of "high-risk, pollution, extensive mode and irregular industry" . On the basis of China's coal resources characteristics, the scale of coal production, layout and development potential were systematically analyzed. Moreover, the total amount of sustainable capacity of coal production in 2030 and 2050 in China were predicted. A strategic plan and initiatives of how to fulfill the target of sustainable capacity of coal mining were also suggested.
The clean coal utilization strategy which is an important part of energy development strategy of China was presented. The main forms and problems of coal utilization in China were analyzed, and an index system for efficient and clean utilization of coal, including clean degree, eco-friendly degree, and low-carbon degree was developed. Based on the analysis of the structure and quantity of coal consumption in China, the paper gives the index values of 2020, 2030, and 2050, respectively. The development strategy of efficient and clean utilization of coal in China is finally proposed for 2011 to 2030 and 2031 to 2050. The results show that: a. By 2030, coal will still play a dominating role in the strategic layout of energy supply in China. With the adjustment of energy structure, the application and innovation of new technologies, coal will be used more cleanly, more environmental friendly, and with less CO2 emissions by 2050. b. The efficient and clean utilization of coal is the strategic direction for sustainable development of energy supply. Low-carbon utilization of high-carbon energy source can be obtained. c. In the next few decades, complete transform from currently extensive coal supply mode into scientific supply which meets the reasonable needs will provide direct support for the efficient utilization of coal. d. Low-carbon utilization of high-carbon energy is in accordance with green development strategy of China.
On the basis of forecasting mid-long term electricity consumption demand in China, power supply capacity, including supply capacities of coal-fired power, hydropower, nuclear power, non-hydro renewable resource power and gas power, was analyzed. The principle and purpose for developing mid-long term power supply pattern were expounded, and mid-long term power grid pattern is proposed.Finally, it was indicated that mid-long term electric power development strategy in China need some new power technologies, such as intelligent power distribution and utilization, intelligent power dispatching, large scale energy storage, superconducting power, distributed power supply, etc.
Considering energy resource reserves in China and relevant energy development policies, this paper comprehensively analyzed China's mid-long term power supply capacity, including supply capacities of coal-fired power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power, biomass power and gas power. Based on this, with the objective of minimizing the total cost to society, it also optimized the mid-long term generation mix in China, and proposed the mid-long term generation arrangement.
Based on the super-long term forecast, by analyzing the supply and demand situation of oil & gas for our country in 2030—2050, some strategic measures and advice on energy security challenge were put forward. The results showed that in a long period, our national demand for petroleum will be at strong growth, but the petroleum production will keep stable. Therefore, the gap between supply and demand is constantly increasing. In order to confine the dependency of domestic petroleum consumption on import at 60 %, it is necessary to control energy demand and develop reliable petroleum substitution at the same time. As a clean and fine fossil fuel, natural gas is of great significance to change our national energy structure and promote a low-carbon economy, so it is urgent to take effective measures to quicken domestic natural gas exploration and import as much natural gas resource as possible from oversea market, and to realize the goal that the proportion of natural gas can reach more than 10 % in our national primary energy structure in 2030—2050. According to the results, the sustainable strategy and technical options for oil & gas mid-long term development in our country were also proposed, and suggestions on strategic measures were given.
Based on the analysis of natural gas development trend, a system research on natural gas resource potential, the favorable condition for accelerating natural gas exploration, its future scale after 2030 and its status on the coming low-carbon economy are carried out. The research results show that, both conventional and unconventional natural gas resources of China are very rich. The natural gas industry, which developed later than oil industry for about 30 years,has just entered the initial stage of rapid development and has a very bright development prospect, with a forecasting annual yield arriving at 3×1011 m3 by 2030, and this trend will possibly keep to 2050. And study also shows that our country is adjacent to three gas-rich areas: Central Asia-Russia, Middle East and Asia Pacific area, so we can take the advantage of our good position to make best use of oversea energy resource. By producing energy at home and importing from abroad, the proportion of natural gas will probably reach more than 10 % in our national primary energy structure in 2030—2050, which is of great importance to change our national energy structure and promote a low-carbon economy.
In the context of the coal-dominated primary energy mix in China and the national strategy of restructuring such energy mix, this paper reviews the technological and industrial progress in renewable energy sector, and analyzes the strategic targets, technological roadmap, key areas and enabling policies for renewable energy development by 2030 and 2050 in a strategic perspective. This paper concludes that renewable energy is expected to evolve from supplementary energy now to alternative energy by 2020, mainstream energy by 2030 and dominative energy by 2050, through the deployment of renewable energy technologies, focusing on power generation, thermal utilization and gasification, and biofuel for transportation
In February 2008, Chinese Academy of Engineering started up the great consultative project of Research on the Energy Development Strategy of China in mid-long term(2030, 2050), which includes six sub-tasks. According to the arrangement of renewable sub-tasks, the work of wind energy working group is to further understand the wind resources on the basis of "China Renewable Energy Development Strategic Research" , make comprehensive analyses on wind market strategy, industry, technology and application from the strategic prospect, and put forward the strategic targets, the technical routes, development focus and policy measures for the wind energy development of China in mid-long term. This article briefly introduced the achievements of the research.
The guarantee feedstock resources for developing bio-energy in China were introduced in this paper, including land resources, forest resources, straw resource, agricultural residual and organic waste. The significance and developing prospect of biomass energy were presented from a strategic perspective. Main bio-energy products and biomass conversion techniques were reviewed, such as fuel ethanol, biodiesel, biogas and bio-pelletes etc. The goals of developing bio-energy at different stages in our nation from now to 2050 were introduced, and some feasible advices were given from the views of policy, technology and environmental protection.
Based on the hydropower potential and distribution features,analyze the status and role of hydropower in China, review the history of hydropower development and current situation, contrast and analyze the differences of hydropower development in China and some other overseas countries, present strategy route and target and key point of hydropower development in China and present measures and suggestions to hydropower development in future.