This article is the first part of summary of strategy research on automobile power (comprising two parts) sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Engineering. This study investigates and summarizes the overall situation of automobile development, and analyzes the environment and the development trend of automobile in China. We conclude that the China automotive industry is experiencing a vital development period. Based on our analysis, we describe the essence of automobile power in the new era. We propose focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in the automotive industry and on the coordinated development of the automotive society as two main features of automobile power in the new era. In addition, we discuss the importance of building an automobile power from ten aspects.
In the first part of the strategy research about building automotive power, we draw a conclusion that China should seize the great opportunity of starting a new revolution in the automotive industry and accelerate the building of automobile power in the new era. Based on this, the paper investigates the problems existing in the automotive industry and determines 34 constraints arising from seven aspects that are hindering the establishment of automobile industry. We analyze the constraints and summarize them into ten. Then we describe the principal contradictions, and carry out the strategic thinking on the construction of automobile power combining with the current situation and constraints. We conclude that China should accelerate implementing the strategy of building automobile power in the new era, and propose core measures and key suggestions to promote it.
This study proposes that we must jump out of electric vehicles to evaluate its impact on the future economy and society from the perspective of welcoming the automobile revolution, and expounds the characteristics of the automobile revolution and some attitudes to welcome the automobile revolution from seven aspects.
To realize the commitment toward reducing CO2 emission made in the Paris Agreement, the automotive industry in China must lower its CO2 emission and contribute toward low carbonization. We have created a prediction model for CO2 emission from automobiles based on the architecture of low carbonization systems for automobiles, current emission situation within the automobile life cycle, and the sales prediction for 2030 in China. Using this model, the total CO2 emission of automobiles in China was predicted for 2030; we also analyzed the CO2 emission of the automobiles with respect to the total amount of CO2 emission in China. An evaluation system has also been set up for low CO2 emission from automobiles in China, and comprehensive suggestions for a low-carbon technology roadmap in China are also presented in this paper.
This paper analyzes the innovation system in the automobile industry on the basis of the basic definition of the automobile industry innovation system. The paper points out that non-profit research institutions dedicated to application technology, focusing on technology maturity from grade 4 to grade 7 and responsible for closing the gap between basic research and industrial technology, are falling short. The paper takes into account the international standards and experiences, and studies the structure of the innovation system in the automobile industry of China. It recommends setting up a Chinese automotive innovation council and speeding up the construction of an automobile industry-related innovation center.
As an important supporting industry of the national economy, the automobile industry has an important impact on the overall economic strength of the country. To cope with the scenario of motorized transformation, intelligent network connection, and operational mode innovation of the global automotive industry, a strategy for developing a powerful automobile industry in China is needed, as it will contribute toward improving the international competitiveness of China’s automobile industry. Through an analysis of domestic and international automobile industries under the new revolution, in this work, we identify opportunities and existing problems of the domestic automobile industry, such as the development of a new energy automotive industry and intelligent networks in automobiles. By establishing a multilink development path that considers Chinese automobile local enterprises as main elements, we provide corresponding measures and suggestions for preparing a development strategy for China’s automobile industry.
This paper analyzes the problems faced by the automobile manufacturing industry in China, including low quality and efficiency, weak competitiveness, insufficient high-mid-level supply ability, pressures due to highly competitive overseas brands and less approved status of independent brands, and the worrying situation about independent auto parts brands. Subsequently, the long-term bottlenecks that beset the development of the automobile industry in China are summarized, such as the weak foundations of good quality technology and manufacturing, as well as the lack of core technology, innovation, and a generic research platform. This paper puts forward the guiding ideology and phase-wise goals to improve the manufacturing quality from the perspective of developing new energy and intelligently connected vehicles, implementing automotive quality improvement projects, and other development strategies.
The intelligent and connected vehicle (ICV), a trendy and promising industry form, has evolved with the development of information technology. Benefiting from the disciplinary crossing and integration of emerging technologies of various industries and fields, related industries will be witnessing a collaborative growth through the industrialization of ICVs. China, as the most productive nation in terms of automobiles in the world, desires to promote industrial transformation and upgradation, thus becoming one of the most powerful nations in the automobile industry. In this study, the connotation and significance of establishing an automobile power is illustrated, the current conditions and future challenges in the development of ICV that China faces are analyzed, and a top-level strategic design is proposed.
The development of new energy vehicles has reached a world consensus. Accordingly, pure electric vehicles have been identified as a national strategic emerging industry in China and a key field of the “China Manufacture 2025”. This study reviews the history, technical route, and characteristic of the development of electric commercial vehicles in China. Combining the requirements of “zero-emission” and “24 h non-interrupted safe operation” in the Beijing Olympics, we propose herein the concept of “system engineering of electric commercial vehicles” with three core components, namely, vehicle platform, swap charging station, and operation monitoring. This study also introduces and investigates the key technologies of the three components. Lastly, this study discusses the main technical measures for upgrading the system engineering of electric commercial vehicles to realize a 5 million-level application of the new energy vehicle in 2020 and satisfy the application in an environment of −25 ℃ in the Beijing Winter Olympics in 2022. The study aims to realize a pure electric commercial vehicle with superior performance, no technical defects, and a forbidden application zone.
This study first analyzes the significance of developing a new industry with respect to energy, environment, information, and scientific technology. It then provides a strategic plan for China’s new energy vehicle development for 2050. The technical routes for new energy vehicles, power batteries, and driving motors and systematic configurations of the new energy vehicles are discussed. Toward the end, we provide suggestions for establishing national technological innovation alliances to achieve technological breakthroughs in the new energy vehicle industry. It is expected that these suggestions can provide references for the future development of China’s new energy vehicle industry.
The rapid development of the automobile industry brings substantial environmental challenges to China. Therefore, integrated development strategies targeting both the automobile industry and emission control, although difficult, are essential. Based on a localized model, this paper analyzes the characteristics of and historical trends in China’s vehicle emissions and quantifies future trends under various emission control scenarios. The research summarizes and combs the bottlenecks and main contradictions in the process of synergetic development of China’s future automobile industry and environmental improvement, puts forward the roadmap for the synergetic development applicable to China, and gives corresponding development proposals and control strategies.
This study reviews the development of aluminum and magnesium alloys, including new materials, forming technologies, and application trends; analyzes the obstacles of their application in the automobile industry; and suggests possible solutions to promote the process of making lightweight vehicles in China.
Tire dynamics is an important bottleneck in the autonomous development of automobiles and aircraft. This study compares the development of tire dynamics both nationally and in other nations, and indicates a significant challenge in the development of tire dynamics in China in the face of an increasingly fierce international competition. The strategies and suggestions for the collaborative development of tire dynamics in China are proposed after analyzing the characteristics of the tire dynamics test, simulation, and application technology.
This study compares the advantages of new energy vehicles and internal combustion engines to achieve low carbon emissions and zero pollution. Internal combustion engines are predicted to remain the main driving force of automobiles for a long time in the future. High-efficiency, energy-saving, and clean new technologies for the automobile internal combustion engine are summarized herein, including advanced combustion, turbocharging and small enhancement, multi-system and multi-variable control, waste heat recovery, intelligent cylinder stop, and cylinder water spraying technology, among others. New internal combustion engine technologies with great potential have endlessly emerged in response to the pressure of environmental pollution, global warming, and energy crisis. The internal combustion engine industry in China cannot be slack because it is an important part of the advancement of China’s automobile industry toward automobile power.
Energy security and climate have become issues of increasing importance globally. China, as a major political and economic power, has a responsibility toward energy conservation and emission reduction. The automobile industry is facing severe emission reduction challenges in following the low carbon process. The trend of the total expansion of China’s automobile industry is irresistible and transformation of the vehicle energy structure is also imminent. An initiative to effectively determine the gap between China and other auto powers in low-carbon development and remove the key influence factors will be essential toward realizing low-carbon development of China’s automobile industry in the future. This study uses an analytic hierarchy process to analyze the factors that influence China’s low-carbon development in the automobile industry and presents comparisons with other countries. This will provide a reference for the low-carbon development of the future automobile industry in China.
This work discusses the importance of improving the recycling and utilization of end-of-life vehicles through three perspectives that include resource saving, environmental protection, and transportation safety. It then analyzes the situation of recycling and utilizing end-of-life vehicles by using the recycle rate of end-of-life vehicles and their dismantling ability, as well as the administrative regulations and supervising system. Based on this analysis, we propose an ecologically beneficial evaluation model for the recycling and utilization of end-of-life vehicles to solve the existing problem.
This study briefly introduces the present situation and the prospects of the development of car sharing at home and abroad. Combining new features such as low carbonization, electrification, networking, intelligence, and sharing in the current stage of automobile development, this study aims to explain the influence of car sharing in promoting automobile transformation. In addition, this study proposes the idea that the government should put car sharing on the strategic height of automobile power to create a favorable development environment and promote the rapid development of car sharing in the country.
With the rapid growth in vehicle production, sales, and ownership, vehicle energy and key mineral resources for vehicle manufacture have become an important issue in China. This study predicts future vehicle ownership and analyzes the current situation in terms of utilization, technical development level, and development trend of vehicle energy and key mineral resources in China, by employing the Chinese vehicle ownership prediction model developed by the China Automotive Energy Research Center of Tsinghua University. The results indicate that China’s vehicle ownership will continue to grow and the contradiction between the supply and demand of vehicle energy will be further highlighted. The mineral resource reserves, product performance, and technological level of vehicle materials in China need to be improved. Relevant policies are suggested to cope with the aforementioned challenges.
The automobile parts industry is the foundation of automobile power and is the main driving force promoting the development of the automobile industry. All automobile power countries have a strong parts industry. Now China is in a critical period of growing from a large automobile to automobile power, but it is difficult for the development of the parts industry to support the development of the automobile industry. Through the analysis of problems and opportunities for the development of China’s parts industry, we suggest building a complete independent parts system through strengthening the industrial base, expanding the scale of independent support, and cultivating leading companies to consolidate the development foundation and support the development of automobile power.
With China entering the automobile society, to become an automobile power, it urgently needs an advanced automobile culture. In addition to analyzing and discussing the importance of developing an advanced automobile culture, this study also dissects the present situation and existing problems of China’s automobile culture and clarifies the objective and guiding ideology of implementing it in China. The procedure to develop an advanced automobile culture, offered in this study, will be beneficial in developing China’s automobile culture.
Under the guidance and support of national policies, the new energy vehicle industry in China is developing rapidly. It is estimated that the number of new energy vehicles will exceed five million by 2020. The ensuing battery recycling problem of the new energy vehicle has become a major issue. Power batteries without effective recycling will result in serious environmental pollution and a waste of resources. The United States, Germany, Japan, and other developed countries have planned for power battery recycling. After extensively analyzing the existing problems of power battery recycling, concrete suggestions for accelerating the development of power batteries for new energy vehicles are put forward.
Presently, China is at a crucial stage, shifting from a large automobile-manufacturing and-consuming country to an automobile power. Developed countries such as European countries, the United States, and Japan have formed relatively mature automobile management systems and have an important reference for building a harmonious automobile society and a powerful nation of automobile to China. By comparing the management system of the automobile industry in China and developed countries, this paper summarizes the existing problems and defects in the management system of the Chinese automobile industry and draws lessons from the experiences of developed countries to propose that we should reform the vehicle management system, promote legalization of construction, play the role of market mechanism, strengthen strategic guidance, and encourage technological innovation.