Feb 2017, Volume 19 Issue 1
    

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  • Yang Wei
    China’s engineering science and technology development strategy research is a common project organized by the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the National Natural Science Foundation of China. The purposes of this research are to build a high-level national engineering science and technology think tank, to build a Chinese science and technology planning platform, and to develop science and technology planning in a manner that suits the Chinese national condition. This paper describes the Chinese level of science and technology to 2035, using top-level design and two operating systems (an administrative line system to ensure the efficiency of the strategy research, and a technical line system to ensure the quality of the strategy research) in order to achieve the desired results.
  • Song Chao, Sun Shengkai, Chen Jindong
    This paper examines recent major strategic planning projects in engineering science and technology from several major countries around the world, and briefly analyzes the current development status of major fields. Through a comparison and analysis of the goal, path, and content of current planning in different countries, this study draws a relationship diagram and depicts the focus and frontier issues of global engineering science and technology planning.
  • Li Ping, Lou Feng, Wang Hongwei
    In this paper, we consider the main factors affecting the potential economic growth of China in the future and their transmission mechanism, in order to construct an economic system model and forecast the scale and structure of China’s economy over the next 20 years. In the benchmark scenario, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates from 2016–2020, 2021–2025, 2026–2030, and 2031–2035 are 6.4 %, 5.6 %, 4.9 %, and 4.5 %, respectively. In 2035, China’s GDP scale will be 10.06 times greater than in 2000, 3.99 times greater than in 2010, and 2.02 times greater than in 2020. Over the next 20 years, investment-driven economic growth will gradually change into a new stage of development that is led by consumption demand. In the face of slowing growth in developed economies and the gradual reduction of its domestic labor force, China needs to strengthen its research and education investment; improve investment efficiency, total factor productivity, and technological progress; promote the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry; and accelerate the tax reform of the financial system and the reform of the income distribution system.
  • Luan Enjie, Yuan Jianhua, Man Xuan
    The object of this analysis is to closely link China’s economic and social development with its engineering science and technology demands. This article introduces the background and methods of demand analysis in China and abroad. The analysis uses interviews and surveys from core experts in the field of economic and social development, along with other methods, to depict six visions of China’s economic and social development to 2035, and to point out the demand for engineering science and technology.
  • Task Force for the Research on China’s Engineering Science and Technology Development Strategy Comprehensive Research Group
    Engineering science and technology is strongly linked with production, and is the most direct driving force for the Two Centenary Goals of China. The main tasks of medium- and long-term strategic research on engineering science and technology are to design a development route for China’s engineering science and technology aim toward scientific and technological power, based on China’s situation and development requirement analyses. This paper introduces the methodology applied in our project for medium- and long-term development strategy research on engineering science and technology, and proposes a general idea and strategic framework for China’s engineering science and technology development to 2035.
  • Wang Kunsheng, Zhou Xiaoji, Gong Xu
    Technology foresight is a process that promotes the integration of technology, the economy, and major planning projects, and explores the development of future technology. In consideration of the future economic and social development needs of our country, technology foresight in development strategy research on engineering science and technology involves predicting and selecting key technologies for engineering science and technology in the next 20 years. Combining objective analysis with subjective judgment, the methods and procedures applied in technology foresight on China’s engineering science and technology to 2035 were designed by considering the characteristics of engineering science and technology. This technology foresight selects key, common, and disruptive technologies from more than 800 technologies in 11 fields, and analyzes their technical realization time, development level, and constraints. The results of the technology foresight are adopted to create a technology roadmap for China’s engineering science and technology development to 2035 in various fields.
  • Zhang Jun, Wang Yunpeng, Lu Guangquan
    With the rapid development of the social economy and the deep application and integration of new-generation information technology, integrated transportation faces serious challenges regarding safety, high efficiency, and environmental protection. To address the major demands of socioeconomic and transportation development, based on analyses of the development situation, this study conducted strategic research on the development trends and path for integrated transportation engineering science and technology to 2035. This research focused on network connections, collaboration, and intelligence. Furthermore, this paper proposes strategic plans, key directions, development paths, and major projects for integrated transportation engineering science and technology to 2035, all of which may help to provide valuable insight into the realization of a leap forward in the development of China’s integrated transportation engineering science and technology.
  • An Da, Li Mengnan, Xu Shouren
    As one of the most innovative, integrated, and cutting-edge science and technology fields, the information and electronics field has developed very rapidly in recent years, and has had a profound effect on almost all other fields. Therefore, technology foresight for this field is particularly important. Sponsored by the project titled “Research on China’s Engineering Science and Technology Development Strategy 2035”, this study implemented two rounds of investigation into the field of information and electronics, using the Delphi method. By using different approaches, this study was able to identify critical applied technologies, important generic technologies, and potential disruptive technologies that are particularly noteworthy. In addition, this paper draws a careful comparison between two rounds of survey conclusions for “big data technology”, “advanced computing technology”, “space-ground integrated information network technology”, and other important technologies. This paper provides a reference for the establishment of important technical directions for China’s engineering science and technology development plan to 2035 and for future technology foresight.
  • Cao Xianghong, Yuan Qingtang, Liu Peicheng
    Based on assessments of domestic and international trends in the petrochemical industry and in engineering science and technology development, analyses of China’s economic and social development prospects to 2035, and predictions of China’s major strategic demands, this article proposes a development strategy, strategic objectives, major tasks, and measures and suggestions for China’s petrochemical engineering science and technology development to 2025 and to 2035.
  • Zhang Bo, Guo Danning, Peng Supin
    In the next 20 years, science and technology innovation in energy will bring about profound reform in the characteristics and patterns of China’s energy industries. This paper analyzes the basic background and related strategic demands of China’s energy development, describes the present situation, and identifies existing problems in energy engineering science and technology. It also proposes medium- and long-term development strategies for China’s energy engineering science and technology, including overall conception, main tasks, and important technical directions. Trends, impacts, and a possible blueprint for energy engineering science and technology to 2035 are predicted. These results can contribute to the scientific establishment of innovation systems in energy engineering science and technology, based on China’s energy resources and development conditions. Furthermore, these results can contribute to the formation of China’s strategic countermeasures in energy engineering science and technology to 2035 by considering China’s overall and long-term development demands.
  • Tao Muxuan, Nie Jianguo, Fan Jiansheng
    China’s urbanization development needs to shift from rapid growth to quality improvement. As a major carrier and symbol of urbanization, civil and structural engineering will become one of the key development methods for China to improve the quality of its urbanization by creating higher quality living environments. China’s civil and structural engineering will undergo crucial transformations and will embrace important opportunities in the period between now and the year 2035. This paper provides an overall review of world-leading technologies in civil and structural engineering fields; summarizes the development direction and trends of civil and structural engineering technologies to 2035; and identifies pending major issues in China’s civil and structural engineering, along with their demands for engineering science and technology. This paper then proposes key technologies and a development path for civil and structural engineering, and suggests major projects that need to be implemented on a national level for China’s civil and structural engineering to 2035.
  • Dan Zhigang, Shi Feifei, Wang Zhizeng
    The Delphi method is the most common method of technology foresight, which is a significant basis for establishing development strategies and policies of science and technology. This study proposes 45 alternative technologies in the field of environmental engineering science and technology through a literature survey, experts’ advice, and discussion meetings. These technologies relate to air pollution prevention and control; water pollution prevention and control; soil pollution prevention and control; solid waste pollution prevention, control, and utilization; ecological protection and restoration; environmental monitoring, early warning, and risk control; resource utilization and cleaner production. Based on results that were obtained according to the Delphi method, this research analyzes the realization time, R&D level, and restriction factors for the key technologies, common technologies, and disruptive technologies that were determined for 2035. This study provides a reference for establishing development strategies and objectives for China’s environmental engineering science and technology over the next 20 years.
  • Task Force for the Research on China’s Engineering Science and Technology Development Strategy Agriculture Research Group
    To improve the scientific judgment of the development strategy for China’s agricultural engineering science and technology to 2035, the technology foresight method was used. This method entailed a wide collection of detailed technology foresight lists and two rounds of a questionnaire survey. Based on the survey results, which were studied and judged by specialists, overall development characteristics of agricultural engineering science and technology were confirmed, and then 12 directions for key technologies in agriculture were put forward. Furthermore, a development strategy for key technologies in agriculture was proposed in order to overcome a lack of talent and of R&D inputs in agriculture. In conclusion, technology foresight results can provide important support for creating development strategies for China’s agricultural engineering science and technology to 2035.
  • Sun Dianjun, Sun Changhao, Zhang Fengmin
    Key technology foresight in the fields of medical and population health is very important to China’s population health, economy, and social development. Such foresight permits technological development trends in medical and population health to be grasped, thereby meeting major national strategic demands. In this paper, a list of alternative technologies is put forward on the basis of technology foresight, bibliometrics, and patent analysis (both domestic and international). A Delphi investigation of the list was carried out among experts in the fields of medical technology and medical industry all over the country. A total of 10 major key technologies, 10 major common technologies, and 10 major disruptive technologies were put forward, by analyzing the results of the Delphi investigation in combination with the experts’ judgment. The realization time, development level, and limiting factors of these major technologies were also analyzed. The results of this study provide a scientific basis for the raising of major projects in the fields of medical and population health.
  • Wang Xue, Zhang Li
    Instrumentation is the fundamental technology and essential equipment for intelligent manufacturing, scientific research, environmental monitoring, healthcare, national defense construction, and so forth. As an important support toward achieving a national innovation strategy, instrumentation development determines the level of strategic new industries, which include the innovative information industry, high-end equipment-manufacturing industry, energy industry, materials industry, and so forth. This paper analyzes development trends of instrumentation engineering science and technology to 2035. Within the requirements of digital, intelligent, and networked instruments, key technologies and future trends are depicted for three main aspects: intelligent instrumentation, medical instruments, and micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS). Development strategies and suggestions for China’s instrumentation engineering science and technology to 2035 are also put forward.
  • Task Force for the Research on China’s Engineering Science and Technology Development Strategy Marine Research Group
    It is a critical and long-term strategic goal for China to enhance its capacity to exploit marine resources, develop marine economics, protect the marine ecological environment, uphold maritime rights and interests, and build a maritime power. However, China is still in the preliminary stage of marine exploration; therefore, we need to enhance our ability to utilize and control the ocean from a global perspective. It is urgent that the development and utilization of marine resources—including exploration, engineering exploitation, and environmental protection—and the safeguarding of the rights and interests of the state should be treated as an organic whole in the top-level engineering science and technology designs that are required to build a maritime power. Based on a series of technology foresight analyses that were performed through inter-disciplinary integration, this project puts forward key directions in marine engineering science and technology development. In addition, this paper outlines the development path for China’s marine engineering science and technology in six key aspects, including: marine environment stereo-observation technology and equipment, submarine resources exploration and development technology, marine biological resources exploration and development technology, seawater resources and marine energy comprehensive utilization technology, marine environment security technology, and marine development equipment. This paper presents the scientific and technological vision, key points of development, development strategy, and development path for China’s marine engineering science and technology to 2035.
  • Liu Yi, Ni Shunjiang, Weng Wenguo
    Public safety, as an essential element of a nation’s development, must be firmly embedded in and linked to the goal of the national power strategy. In the study of China’s medium- and long-term development strategy for engineering science and technology, public safety is regarded as an interdisciplinary research field with the core capabilities of protecting life and safeguarding property for the public while maintaining economic development and social stability. In order to build a well-off society that is powerful in science and technology, it is urgent to improve public safety at all levels and to carry out research on a public-safety science and technology development strategy. This paper introduces the public-safety science and technology development strategy along with its path design.
  • Lin Heng, Zhou Yuan, Liu Yufei
    This paper focuses on technology hot spots, frontier identification, and trend analysis of high-tech foresight, and puts forward a more complete analysis method based on previous studies. In this paper, we take robot technology as an example in order to identify hot spots and frontiers in technology, along with their development trends. These findings have great significance for the proposal of a technology list and for the allocation of the technology industry in the Research on China’s Engineering Science and Technology Development Strategy 2035.
  • Sun Shengkai, Wei Chang, Song Chao
    Technology foresight is a systemic national science and technology policy in Japan, where it has been consistently and effectively implemented. To date, Japan has implemented technology foresight research 10 times, thus meaningfully promoting research and development in science and technology in Japan, the technological innovation and management abilities of Japanese companies, and a deep understanding of the development law of technology. This paper introduces the methodology, modes, implementation system, and survey process of Japan’s 10th technology foresight; analyzes its experiences and problems; and provides reference and guidance for technology foresight in China.