Wang Liheng, Tu Hailing, Wang Kunsheng, Yuan Jianhua, Ge Hongzhi, Hu Liangyuan, Wang Hainan, Zhao Yan, Lu Yue, Cui Jian
The development of an industry follows an objective cyclical law of an inevitable progression from technological and manufacturing maturity to a developed market for new products. Based on research into this cyclical law for emerging industries combined with systems engineering and data-based decision making, this thesis uses an industrial maturity levels’ theory and assessment method to assess the maturity of technology, manufacture, product, market, and industry in a consistent, standardized, and quantitative method. Comprehensive evaluation results are obtained through the integration of evaluation results and data from experts’ judgment. The method is then used to predict what the emerging industrial trend will be at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan in 2020. This study takes the material industry in the Chinese Academy of Engineering’s major advisory project “research on Promotion and Development Planning of China’s Strategic Emerging Industry in the 13th Five-Year Plan Period” as an example and uses the industrial maturity levels to assess and predict industrial development trends and analyze industrial constraints, thereby proposing targeted policy
recommendations.