Strontium and cesium accumulation in soil-rice system: Influencing factors and predictive modeling

Hong-Ling Chen , Bao-Min Yao , Zi-Yang Pan , Dong-Li Sun , Guang Yang , Tian-Ran Sun , Guo-Xin Sun

Soil Ecology Letters ›› 2026, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (3) : 260414

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Soil Ecology Letters ›› 2026, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (3) :260414 DOI: 10.1007/s42832-026-0414-7
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Strontium and cesium accumulation in soil-rice system: Influencing factors and predictive modeling
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Abstract

Strontium (Sr) and cesium (Cs) accumulation in rice grains poses significant dietary health risks, yet their nationwide distribution patterns and controlling mechanisms in soil-rice systems remain poorly quantified. This nationwide study analyzed 14 major rice-producing regions in China through multiple linear regression and positive matrix factorization source apportionment (PMF), exploring the source, distribution, and key factors influencing Sr and Cs. Random forest analysis showed that soil Sr was primarily influenced by total calcium, cation exchange capacity, clay, and pH, whereas grain Sr was mainly governed by organic matter, total calcium, and clay. For Cs, soil accumulation was predominantly affected by total potassium, while grain Cs was largely controlled by total potassium and total nitrogen. And we developed highly reliable models for predicting soil and grain concentrations of Sr and Cs (R2 values of 0.97 for soil Sr, 0.93 for soil Cs, 0.86 for grain Sr and 0.65 for grain Cs), validated by field experiments. Spatial mapping showed high-concentration areas for soil Sr were in central China, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. Soil Cs was mainly in the southeast of the Heihe-Tengchong Line and the Tibetan Plateau. Source analysis identified mining activities as the predominant Sr contributor (62.7%), while Cs exhibited balanced sources including traffic-related (20.2%) and nature source (25.7%). This study clarifies Sr and Cs distribution mechanisms and offers a scientific basis for regional pollution prevention and control strategies, stressing the need for targeted measures in high-risk areas to ensure food safety and public health.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

Sr and Cs accumulation / soil-rice system / paddy soil / prediction model / environmental risks

Highlight

● Soil pH significantly affects strontium uptake in rice grains.

● Cesium accumulation in rice is influenced more by organic matter and clay content.

● Multiple linear regression models predict soil and rice Sr and Cs concentrations accurately.

● Southeast China shows higher concentrations of strontium and cesium in rice and soil.

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Hong-Ling Chen, Bao-Min Yao, Zi-Yang Pan, Dong-Li Sun, Guang Yang, Tian-Ran Sun, Guo-Xin Sun. Strontium and cesium accumulation in soil-rice system: Influencing factors and predictive modeling. Soil Ecology Letters, 2026, 8(3): 260414 DOI:10.1007/s42832-026-0414-7

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