Spatiotemporal dynamics and driving factors of soil organic carbon storage in the Yangtze River Basin under climate change and land use scenarios

Abstract

Soil is crucial in the global carbon cycle, while modeling the spatiotemporal changes of soil organic carbon (SOC) is challenging. This study integrates an ensemble model and the spatiotemporal substitution method to predict and map SOC reserves in the surface layer of the Yangtze River Basin under future climate change and land use patterns. We identified total nitrogen, precipitation, altitude, fertilization amount, and land use as the main factors affecting the spatial variability of SOC reserves. Under the scenario of moderate greenhouse gas emissions with some climate mitigation efforts (SSP245), the soil will act as a carbon sink, increasing by 20 Tg C in the 2030s and by 70 Tg C in the 2050s compared to 2010. In contrast, under the scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions with minimal climate mitigation efforts (SSP585), the soil will act as a carbon source, decreasing by 50 Tg C in the 2030s and by 20 Tg C in the 2050s. In the future, SOC reserves will be mainly concentrated in cultivated land and forests, accounting for 70.23% and 72.07%, respectively. These findings provide insights for ecological restoration and land use planning, guiding future carbon sequestration policies in the Yangtze River Basin.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

ensemble learning / soil organic carbon stocks / climate scenarios / land use change

Highlight

	● A predicting model for SOC stocks was developed at a 1 km spatial resolution.
	● Spatiotemporal distribution of SOC in the topsoil of the Yangtze Basin was mapped.
	● SOC stocks in topsoil of the Yangtze Basin under future scenarios were predicted.
	● The key environmental factors influencing SOC stocks successfully were identified.

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