Developing a robust correlation for prediction of sweet and sour gas hydrate formation temperature

Abstract

There are numerous correlations and thermodynamic models for predicting the natural gas hydrate formation condition but still the lack of a simple and unifying general model that addresses a broad ranges of gas mixture. This study was aimed to develop a user-friendly universal correlation based on hybrid group method of data handling (GMDH) for prediction of hydrate formation temperature of a wide range of natural gas mixtures including sweet and sour gas. To establish the hybrid GMDH, the total experimental data of 343 were obtained from open articles. The selection of input variables was based on the hydrate structure formed by each gas species. The modeling resulted in a strong algorithm since the squared correlation coefficient (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE) were 0.9721 and 1.2152, respectively. In comparison to some conventional correlation, this model represented not only the outstanding statistical parameters but also its absolute superiority over others. In particular, the result was encouraging for sour gases concentrated at H₂S to the extent that the model outstrips all available thermodynamic models and correlations. Leverage statistical approach was applied on datasets to the discovery of the defected and doubtful experimental data and suitability of the model. According to this algorithm, approximately all the data points were in the proper range of the model and the proposed hybrid GMDH model was statistically reliable.

Keywords

Hydrate formation temperature / HFT / Wide range of natural gas mixtures / Unified correlation / Group method of data handling / GMDH / Outlier detection

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