Multivariate Risk Assessment for Offshore Jacket Platforms by Gaidai Reliability Method

Abstract

The novel structural reliability methodology presented in this study is especially well suited for multidimensional structural dynamics that are physically measured or numerically simulated over a representative timelapse. The Gaidai multivariate reliability method is applied to an operational offshore Jacket platform that operates in Bohai Bay. This study demonstrates the feasibility of this method to accurately estimate collapse risks in dynamic systems under in situ environmental stressors. Modern reliability approaches do not cope easily with the high dimensionality of real engineering dynamic systems, as well as nonlinear intercorrelations between various structural components. The Jacket offshore platform is chosen as the case study for this reliability analysis because of the presence of various hotspot stresses that synchronously arise in its structural parts. The authors provide a straightforward, precise method for estimating overall risks of operational failure, damage, or hazard for nonlinear multidimensional dynamic systems. The latter tool is important for offshore engineers during the design stage.

Keywords

Monte carlo simulation / System reliability / Jacket offshore structure / Bohai bay / Energy

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