Predicting Human Reliability for Shore-based LNG Bunkering Operation Process on Tanker Ships Using SLIM and Improved Z-numbers

Abstract

With the increasing utilization of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a marine fuel, the safety and reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations have become vital concerns. Human factors are crucial to the successful execution of these operations. However, predicting human reliability in such complex scenarios remains challenging. This paper focuses on the prediction of human reliability analysis (HRA) for shore-based LNG bunkering operations on tanker ships to address the aforementioned gap. Practical approaches to predicting HRA under the success likelihood index method (SLIM) and an improved Z-numbers approach are both adopted in this paper. SLIM provides a powerful tool to calculate human error, while the improved Z-numbers can address uncertainty and improve the reliability of qualitative expert judgments. Results show that the reliability of shore-based LNG bunkering operations is 0.861. In addition to its robust theoretical contribution, this research provides substantial practical contributions to LNG ship owners, ship superintendents, safety inspectors, and shore-based and ship crew for enhancing safety at the operational level and efficiency of shore-based LNG bunkering operations.

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