DCEFM Model for Emergency Risk Assessment of Ship Inflow

Abstract

This paper proposes a risk assessment model considering danger zone, capsizing time, and evaluation time factors (DCEFM) to quantify the emergency risk of ship inflow and calculate the degree of different factors to the emergency risk of water inflow. The DCEFM model divides the water inflow risk factors into danger zone, capsizing time, and evacuation time factors. The danger zone, capsizing time, and evacuation factors are calculated on the basis of damage stability probability, the numerical simulation of water inflow, and personnel evacuation simulation, respectively. The risk of a capsizing scenario is quantified by risk loss. The functional relationship between the location of the danger zone and the probability of damage, the information of breach and the water inflow time, the inclination angle and the evacuation time, and the contribution of different factors to the risk model of ship water inflow are obtained. Results of the DCEFM show that the longitudinal position of the damaged zone and the area of the breach have the greatest impact on the risk. A simple local watertight plate adjustment in the high-risk area can improve the safety of the ship.

Keywords

Ship inflow / Quantification of risk model / Risk factor analysis / Simulation / Subdivision design optimization

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