Structural Reliability Analysis of Ship Hulls Accounting for Collision or Grounding Damage

Branka Bužančić Primorac , Joško Parunov , C. Guedes Soares

Journal of Marine Science and Application ›› 2020, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (4) : 717 -733.

PDF
Journal of Marine Science and Application ›› 2020, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (4) : 717 -733. DOI: 10.1007/s11804-020-00176-w
Research Article

Structural Reliability Analysis of Ship Hulls Accounting for Collision or Grounding Damage

Author information +
History +
PDF

Abstract

Classical structural reliability analysis of intact ship hulls is extended to the case of ships with collision or grounding damages. Still water load distribution and residual bending moment capacity are included as random variables in the limit state equation. The probability density functions of these random variables are defined based on random damage parameters given by the Marine Environment Protection Committee of the International Maritime Organization, while the proposed reliability formulation is consistent with international recommendations and thus may be valuable in the development of rules for accidental limit states. The methodology is applied on an example of an Aframax oil tanker. The proposed approach captures in a rational way complex interaction of different pertinent variables influencing safety of damaged ship structure.

Keywords

Ship structures / Hull girder / Collision and grounding / Damaged oil tanker / Residual strength / Uncertainty modelling / Structural reliability

Cite this article

Download citation ▾
Branka Bužančić Primorac, Joško Parunov, C. Guedes Soares. Structural Reliability Analysis of Ship Hulls Accounting for Collision or Grounding Damage. Journal of Marine Science and Application, 2020, 19(4): 717-733 DOI:10.1007/s11804-020-00176-w

登录浏览全文

4963

注册一个新账户 忘记密码

References

[1]

ABS, DNV, Lloyd’s register (2006) Common structural rules for double hull oil tankers

[2]

American Bureau of Shipping (1995) ABS 1995. Guide for assessing hull-girder residual strength for tankers

[3]

Begovic E, Day AH, Incecik A (2011) Experimental ship motion and load measurements in head and beam seas. 9th Symposium on High Speed Marine Vehicles. Italy, 1–8

[4]

Begovic E, Mortola G, Incecik A, Day AH. Experimental assessment of intact and damaged ship motions in head, beam and quartering seas. Ocean Eng, 2013, 72: 209-226

[5]

Begovic E, Day AH, Incecik A. An experimental study of hull girder loads on an intact and damaged naval ship. Ocean Eng, 2017, 133: 47-65

[6]

Bužančić Primorac B, Parunov J. Probabilistic models of ultimate strength reduction of damaged ship. Trans FAMENA, 2015, 39(2): 55-74

[7]

Bužančić Primorac B & Parunov J (2016) Review of statistical data on ship accidents. In: Guedes Soares, C. & Santos T. A., (Eds.). Maritime Technology and Engineering 3; Taylor & Francis Group; pp 809–814

[8]

Bužančić Primorac B, Ćorak M and Parunov J (2015a) Statistics of still water bending moment of damaged ship. Analysis and Design of Marine Structures, Guedes Soares C. & Shenoi RA (Eds), Taylor and Francis Group, 491-497

[9]

Bužančić Primorac B, Slapničar V, Munić I, Grubišić V, Ćorak M, Parunov J (2015b) Statistics of still water bending moment of damaged Suezmax oil tanker. 18th International Conference on Ships and Shipping Research,Lecco, Italy, M. Altosole and A. Francescutto (Editors), 580–589

[10]

Campanile A, Piscopo V, Scamardella A. Comparative analysis among deterministic and stochastic collision damage models for oil tanker and bulk carrier reliability. Int J Naval Architect Ocean Eng, 2018, 10: 21-36

[11]

Campanile A, Piscopo V, Scamardella A. Conditional reliability of bulk carriers damaged by ship collisions. Mar Struct, 2018, 58: 321-334

[12]

Ćatipović I, Ćorak M, Parunov J, Alujević N (2019) Seakeeping experiments on damaged ship. Ships Offshore Struct, 14:sup1, 100–111

[13]

Ćorak M, Parunov J. Structural reliability of oil tanker in the Adriatic Sea damaged in collision and exposed to combined bending moments. J Offshore Mech Arctic Eng - Trans ASME, 2020, 142(3): 031103

[14]

Ćorak M, Parunov J, Guedes Soares C (2017) Structural reliability assessment of an oil tanker accidentally grounded in the Adriatic Sea. Proc. 36th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering (OMAE2017), Trondheim, Norway, Paper OMAE2017–62278

[15]

Downes J, Moore C, Incecik A, Stumpf E and McGregor J (2007) A method for the quantitative assessment of performance of alternative designs in the accidental condition. 10th International Symposium on Practical Design of Ships and Other Floating Structures, Houston. 1025-1032

[16]

Faisal M, Noh SH, Kawsar MRU, Youssef SAM, Seo JK, Ha YC, Paik JK. Rapid hull collapse strength calculations of double hull oil tankers after collisions. Ships Offshore Struct, 2017, 12(5): 624-639

[17]

Folsø L, Rizzuto E and Pino E (2008) Wave induced global loads for a damaged vessel. Ships Offshore Struct 3(4):269–287

[18]

Gaspar B, Guedes Soares C. Hull girder reliability using a Monte Carlo based simulation method. Probabilistic Eng Mech, 2013, 31: 65-75

[19]

Gaspar B, Teixeira AP, Guedes Soares C. Effect of the nonlinear vertical wave-induced bending moments on the ship hull girder reliability. Ocean Eng, 2016, 119: 193-207

[20]

Goerlandt F, Hanninen M, Stahlberg K, Montewka J, Kujala P. Simplified risk analysis of tanker collisions in the Gulf of Finland. Int J Mar Navig Saf Sea Transp, 2012, 6(3): 381-387

[21]

Gordo JM, Guedes Soares C. Interaction equation for the collapse of tankers and containerships under combined bending moments. J Ship Res, 1997, 41(3): 230-240

[22]

Gordo JM, Guedes Soares C, Faulkner D. Approximate assessment of the ultimate longitudinal strength of the hull girder. J Ship Res, 1996, 40(1): 60-69

[23]

Guedes Soares C, Garbatov Y. Fatigue reliability of the ship hull girder accounting for inspection and repair. Reliab Eng Syst Saf, 1996, 51(3): 341-351

[24]

Guedes Soares C, Garbatov Y. Reliability of corrosion protected and maintained ship hulls subjected to corrosion and fatigue. J Ship Res, 1999, 43(2): 65-78

[25]

Guedes Soares C, Ivanov LD. Time-dependent reliability of the primary ship structure. Reliab Eng Syst Saf, 1989, 26(1): 59-71

[26]

Guedes Soares C, Teixeira AP. Risk assessment in maritime transportation. Reliab Eng Syst Saf, 2001, 74: 299-309

[27]

Guedes Soares C, Dogliani M, Ostergaard C, Parmentier G, Pedersen PT. Reliability based ship structural design. Trans Soc Naval Architects Marine Eng (SNAME), N Y, 1996, 104: 357-389

[28]

Guedes Soares C, Luís RM, Nikolov PI, Modiga M, Quesnel T, Dowes J, Toderan C, Taczala M. Benchmark study on the use of simplified structural codes to predict the ultimate strength of a damaged ship hull. Int Shipbuild Prog, 2008, 55(1–2): 87-107

[29]

Heinvee M, Tabri K. A simplified method to predict grounding damage of double bottom tankers. Mar Struct, 2015, 43: 22-43

[30]

Hirdaris S, Argiryiadis K, Bai W, Dessi D, Ergin A, Fonseca N, Gu X, Hermundstad OA, Huijsmans R, Iijima K, Nielsen UD, Papanikolau A, Parunov J, Incecik A. Loads for use in the design of ships and offshore structures. Ocean Eng, 2014, 78: 131-174

[31]

Hussein AW, Guedes Soares C. Reliability and residual strength of double hull tankers designed according to the new IACS common structural rules. Ocean Eng, 2009, 36: 1446-1459

[32]

International Association of Classification Societies (2000) IACS 2000 Recommendation No. 34: standard wave data. Rev. 1

[33]

International Association of Classification Societies (2014) IACS 2014. Common structural rules for bulk carriers and oil tankers

[34]

International Maritime Organisation (2003) IMO Revised Resolution MEPC 2003;110(49), Annex 16., Interim guidelines for the approval of alternative methods of design and construction of oil tankers under Regulation 13F(5) of Annex 1 of MARPOL 73/78

[35]

International Maritime Organisation (2004) IMO, Maritime Safety Committee MSC 78/6/2. Goal-based new ship construction standards. Submitted by The Bahamas, Greece and IACS

[36]

International Maritime Organisation (2006) IMO Maritime Safety Committee MSC 81/INF.6. Goal-based new ship construction standards - linkage between FSA and GBS

[37]

International Maritime Organisation (2008) IMO MEPC 58/INF.2, 2008, Annex 1–3. Formal safety assessment

[38]

International Ships and Offshore Structures Congress (2015a) ISSC, Committee III.1. Ultimate strength, In: Guedes Soares, C. & Garbatov Y., (Eds.). 19th International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress (ISSC 2015). Taylor & Francis Group; pp. 279–349

[39]

International Ships and Offshore Structures Congress (2015b) ISSC in: Guedes Soares, C. & Garbatov Y., (Eds.). 19th International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress (ISSC 2015). Taylor & Francis Group pp. 520–590

[40]

Jensen JJ, Mansour AE (2002) Estimation of ship long-term wave-induced bending moment using closed-form expressions. The Royal institution of Naval Architects, W291

[41]

Jia H and Moan T (2008) Reliability analysis of oil tankers with collision damage. 27th International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, Estoril, Portugal, paper OMAE2008-57102

[42]

Khan IA, Das PK. Reliability analysis and damaged ships considering combined vertical and horizontal bending moments. Ships Offshore Struct, 2008, 3(4): 371-384

[43]

Kim DK, Kim HB, Mohd MH, Paik JK. Comparison of residual strength-grounding damage index diagrams for tankers produced by the ALPS/HULL ISFEM and design formula method. Int J Naval Architect Ocean Eng, 2013, 5: 47-61

[44]

Lee Y, Chan H-S, Pu Y, Incecik A, Dow RS. Global wave loads on a damaged ship. Ships Offshore Struct, 2012, 7(3): 237-268

[45]

Luís RM, Teixeira AP, Guedes Soares C. Longitudinal strength reliability of a tanker hull accidentally grounded. Struct Saf, 2009, 31(3): 224-233

[46]

Magoga T, Flockhart C. Effect of weld-induced imperfections on the ultimate strength of an aluminum patrol boat determined by the ISFEM rapid assessment method. Ships Offshore Struct, 2014, 9(2): 218-235

[47]

Makouei SH, Teixeira AP and Guedes Soares C (2015) A study on the progressive collapse behavior of a damaged hull girder. Maritime Technology and Engineering, Guedes Soares C. & Santos (Eds), Taylor & Francis Group, London, 405-416

[48]

Mansour AE, Faulkner D. On applying the statistical approach to extreme sea loads and ship hull strength. Trans Royal Inst Naval Architects (RINA), 1973, 115: 277-314

[49]

Mikulić A, Parunov J, Guedes Soares C. Wave-induced vertical motions and bending moments in damaged ships. J Mar Sci Appl, 2018, 17(3): 389-405

[50]

Muhammad Zubair MA (2013) Residual hull girder strength of asymmetrically damaged ships, PhD thesis, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University

[51]

Paik JK, Mansour AE. A simple formulation for predicting the ultimate strength of ships. J Marine Sci Technol, 1995, 1(1): 52-62

[52]

Paik JK, Kim BJ, Seo JK. Methods for ultimate limit state assessment of ships and ship-shaped offshore structures: part III hull girders. Ocean Eng, 2008, 35: 281-286

[53]

Paik JK, Kim DK, Park DH, Kim HB, Kim MS. A new method for assessing the safety of ships damaged by grounding. Int J Marit Eng, 2012, 154(A1): 1-20

[54]

Paik JK, Kim DK, Park DH, Kim HB, Mansour AE, Caldwell JB. Modified Paik-Mansour formula for ultimate strength calculation of ship hulls. Ships Offshore Struct, 2013, 8(3–4): 245-260

[55]

Papanikolaou A, Bulian G, Mains C (2011) Goalds, goal-based damaged stability: collision and grounding damages. In: Proceedings of the 12th International Ship Stability Workshop. 37-44

[56]

Parunov J, Guedes Soares C. Effects of common structural rules on hull-girder reliability of an Aframax oil tanker. Reliab Eng Syst Saf, 2008, 93: 1317-1327

[57]

Parunov J, Senjanović I, Guedes Soares C. Hull-girder reliability of new generation oil tankers. Mar Struct, 2007, 20(1–2): 49-70

[58]

Parunov J, Ćorak M, Gledić I (2015) Comparison of two practical methods for seakeeping assessment of damaged ships, In: Guedes Soares C, Shenoi RA (eds) Analysis and Design of Marine Structures, Taylor & Francis Group, London, pp 37–44

[59]

Parunov J, Ćorak M, Rudan S (2017a) Correlation analysis of IMO collision damage parameters. In: Guedes Soares C, Garbatov Y (eds) Progress in the Analysis and Design of Marine Structures. Taylor & Francis Group, pp 477–485

[60]

Parunov J, Rudan S, Ćorak M. Ultimate hull-girder-strength-based reliability of a double-hull oil tanker after collision in the Adriatic Sea. Ships Offshore Struct, 2017, 12(S1): 55-67

[61]

Parunov J, Rudan S, Bužančić Primorac B. Residual ultimate strength assessment of double hull oil tanker after collision. Eng Struct, 2017, 148: 704-717

[62]

Parunov J, Ćorak M, Guedes Soares C, Jafaryeganeh H, Kalske S, Lee Y, Liu S, Papanikolaou A, Prentice D, Prpić-Oršić J. Benchmark study and uncertainty assessment of numerical predictions of global wave loads on damaged ships. Ocean Eng, 2020, 197(106876): 24

[63]

Prestileo A, Rizzuto E, Teixeira AP, Guedes Soares C. Bottom damage scenarios or the hull girder structural assessment. Mar Struct, 2013, 33: 33-55

[64]

Ringsberg JW, Amdahl J, Chen BQ, Cho SR, Ehlers S, Hu ZQ, Kõrgesaar M, Liu B, Nicklas K, Parunov J, Samuelides M, Guedes Soares C, Tabri K, Quinton BW, Yamada Y, Zhang SM. MARSTRUCT benchmark study on nonlinear FE simulation of an experiment of an indenter impact with a ship side-shell structure. Mar Struct, 2018, 59: 142-157

[65]

Saydam D, Frangopol DM. Performance assessment of damaged ship hulls. Ocean Eng, 2013, 68: 65-76

[66]

Sun BC, Zhang Y, Li FW, Jiang XL, Lodewijks G (2014) (2015) Systems structure and simulation design of emergency response to maritime accidents. In: Guedes Soares C, Santos TA (eds) Maritime Technology and Engineering. Taylor & Francis Group, London, pp 235–241

[67]

Tagg R, Bartzis P, Papanikolaou A, Spyrou K, Lützen M. Updated vertical extent of collision damage. Mar Struct, 2002, 15(4–5): 475-498

[68]

Teixeira AP, Guedes Soares C. Reliability analysis of a tanker subjected to combined sea states. Probabilistic Eng Mech, 2009, 24(4): 493-503

[69]

Teixeira AP, Guedes Soares C (2010) Reliability assessment of intact and damaged ship structures. Advanced ship Design for Pollution. Guedes Soares C & Parunov J (Eds), Taylor & Francis Group, London, 79–93

[70]

Teixeira AP, Guedes Soares C and Wang G (2005) Reliability based approach to determine the design loads for the remaining lifetime of ship hulls. Maritime Transportation and Exploitation of Ocean and Coastal Resources – Guedes Soares, Garbatov & Fonseca (eds), Taylor & Francis Group, London, 1611-1619

[71]

Teixeira AP, Parunov J, Guedes Soares C. Guedes Soares C, Garbatov Y, Fonseca N, Teixeira AP. Assessment of ship structural safety. Marine Technology and Engineering, 2011, London: Taylor & Francis Group, 1377-1394

[72]

Wang G, Yongjun C, Hanqing Z, Hua P. Longitudinal strength of ships with accidental damages. Mar Struct, 2002, 15: 119-138

[73]

Xu MC, Teixeira AP, Guedes Soares C. Reliability assessment of a tanker using the model correction factor method based on the IACS-CSR requirement for hull girder ultimate strength. Probabilistic Eng Mech, 2015, 42: 42-53

[74]

Youssef SA, Faisal M, Seo JK, Kim BJ, Ha YC, Kim DK, Paik JK, Cheng F, Kim MS. Assessing the risk of ship hull collapse due to collision. Ships Offshore Struct, 2016, 11(4): 335-350

[75]

Zayed A, Garbatov Y, Guedes Soares C. Time variant reliability assessment of ship structures based on fast integration techniques. Probabilistic Eng Mech, 2013, 32: 93-102

AI Summary AI Mindmap
PDF

191

Accesses

0

Citation

Detail

Sections
Recommended

AI思维导图

/