Optimization of routing considering uncertainties

Abstract

A route optimization methodology in the frame of an onboard decision support/guidance system for the ship’s master has been developed and is presented in this paper. The method aims at the minimization of the fuel voyage cost and the risks related to the ship’s seakeeping performance expected to be within acceptable limits of voyage duration. Parts of this methodology were implemented by interfacing alternative probability assessment methods, such as Monte Carlo, first order reliability method (FORM) and second order reliability method (SORM), and a 3-D seakeeping code, including a software tool for the calculation of the added resistance in waves of NTUA-SDL. The entire system was integrated within the probabilistic analysis software PROBAN. Two of the main modules for the calculation of added resistance and the probabilistic assessment for the considered seakeeping hazards with respect to exceedance levels of predefined threshold values are herein elaborated and validation studies proved their efficiency in view of their implementation into an on-board optimization system.

Keywords

routing system / operational risk assessment / multi-objective optimization / epistemic and aleatory uncertainties

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