Survival Trends of Liver Cancer in 1975–2019 and Projection for 2020–2024: A 50-Year Analysis Using SEER Database
Yi-Xin Zou , Zhuo-Jun Ye , Zhuo-Ying Li , Yu-Xuan Xiao , Jun Chen , Yu-Xin Zhou , Hong-Lan Li , Qun Xu , Yong-Bing Xiang
Journal of Digestive Diseases ›› 2025, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (11-12) : 530 -543.
Objectives: Primary liver cancer (PLC) is a leading cause of global cancer-related mortality, with rising incidence and survival disparities. We aimed to analyze its long-term survival trends that likely help establish future prevention and treatment strategies for PLC.
Methods: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program (1975–2019), we assessed long-term survival rates of PLC patients stratified by age groups, sex, race, and SEER tumor stage using period analysis. Model-based period analysis was employed to predict the 5-year relative survival rates (RSRs) during 2020–2024. Survival statistics included observed survival rates (OSRs), RSR, conditional RSR (CRSR), and age-standardized RSR (ARSR).
Results: From 2015 to 2019, female patients with PLC had a higher 5-year ARSR of 27.26% compared to male patients (24.81%). The 5-year CRSR improved to 72.17% in women and 70.05% in men. The 5-year RSR declined with age and from localized tumor stage (41.45%) to distant cancer (5.52%) in men. In addition, black male patients had the lowest 5-year ARSR (19.61% vs. 23.86% in white males and 31.22% in men of other races). Long-term trends during 1975–2019 showed rising survival rates, yet disparities persisted. Projections for 2020–2024 estimated an overall 5-year RSR of approximately 30%, with persistent gaps for patients aged ≥ 75 years and black males.
Conclusions: Despite improved PLC survival over the 45 years, persistent disparities in age, sex, race, and tumor stage underscore the need for early detection and equitable care. The converging prognosis among long-term survivors highlights the value of survivorship programs.
long-term trend / period analysis / primary liver cancer / SEER program / survival
2026 Chinese Medical Association Shanghai Branch, Chinese Society of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.
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