Prognostic significance of organ failure and infected pancreatic necrosis in acute pancreatitis: An updated systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract

Objectives: In patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), minimally invasive treatment and the step-up approach have been widely used to deal with infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) in the last decade. It is unclear whether IPN has become a less important determinant of mortality relative to organ failure (OF). We aimed to statistically aggregate recent evidence from published studies to determine the relative importance of IPN and OF as determinants of mortality in patients with AP (PROSPERO: CRD42020176989).

Methods: Relevant studies were sourced from MEDLINE and EMBASE databases. Relative risk (RR) or weighted mean difference (WMD) was analyzed as outcomes. A two-sided P value of less than 0.05 was regarded as statistical significance.

Results: Forty-three studies comprising 11 601 patients with AP were included. The mortality was 28% for OF patients and 24% for those with IPN. Patients with OF without IPN had a significantly higher risk of mortality compared to those with IPN but without OF (RR 3.72,P < 0.0001). However, patients with both OF and IPN faced the highest risk of mortality. Additionally, IPN increased length of stay in hospital for OF patients (WMD 28.75,P = 0.032).

Conclusion: Though IPN remains a significant concern, which leads to increased morbidity and longer hospital stay, it is a less critical mortality determinant compared to OF in AP.

Keywords

acute pancreatitis / infected pancreatic necrosis / mortality / organ failure

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2023 Chinese Medical Association Shanghai Branch, Chinese Society of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.