Study on large-scale disaster risk assessment and risk transfer models

Abstract

This article analyzes the risk assessment and risk transfer models of large-scale disasters in line with the characteristics of such disasters. A large-scale disaster risk assessment model based on the Regional Disaster System concept is developed: large-scale disaster risk (R _L) is a function of the disaster triggering hazard (H), the vulnerability of the concerned objects (V), and the stability of the contextual hazard-formative environment (E), or R _L = f(H, V, E). Based on our discussions, we propose that large-scale disaster risk transfer in China should be supported by governments at all levels, operated by insurance companies, and the responsibilities should be shared by all stakeholders. At the global level, large-scale disaster risk transfer should employ a uniform definition and be characterized by government support, market operation, public participation, disaster mitigation, and risk sharing.

Keywords

China / large-scale disaster risk / risk assessment model / risk transfer model

References

[1] Dilley M., Chen R. S., Deichmann U., Lerner-Lam A. L., Arnold M.. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis, 2005, Washington, DC: World Bank

[2] FEMA (U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency). 2004. Using HAZUS-MH for Risk Assessment. http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/dl_fema433.shtm.

[3] Greiving S.. Birkmann J.. Multi-Risk Assessment of Europe’s Regions. Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Towards Disaster Resilient Societies, 2006, Tokyo: United Nations University 210-26.

[4] IDEA (Instituto de Estudios Ambientales), and IDB (the Inter-American Development Bank). 2005. System of Indicators for Disaster Risk Management: Program for Latin America and the Caribbean (Main technical report). IDB/IDEA Program of Indicators for Disaster Risk Management, National University of Colombia. http://idea.unalmzl.edu.co.

[5] Linnerooth-Bayer J., Mechler R., Pflug G.. Refocusing Disaster Aid. Science, 2005, 309(5737): 1044-46

[6] OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Financial Management of Large-Scale Catastrophes, 2008, Paris: OECD

[7] Shi, P. J. 1991. Theory and Practice of Disaster Studies. Journal of Nanjing University (Natural Sciences) (Special): 37–42. [In Chinese.]

[8] Shi P. J.. Third Discussion Theory and Practice for Systematic Studies on Disasters. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2002, 11(3): 1-9.

[9] Shi P. J.. Fifth Discussion Theory and Practice of Systematic Studies on Disasters. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2009, 18(5): 1-9.

[10] Shi P. J., Du J., Ji M. X., Liu J., Wang J. A.. A Study on Risk Evaluation of Major Natural Disasters of Chinese Cities. Geosciences Progress, 2006, 21(2): 170-77.

[11] Shi P. J., Liu Y. H.. Chinese Paradigm of Catastrophe Risk Governance. Journal of US-China Public Administration, 2009, 6(6): 18-28.

[12] Shi, P. J., M. Wang, J. A. Wang, W. Xu, D. Tang, W. F. Chen, and J. B. Shuai. 2009. On the Classification Standards of Large-Scale Disaster and Large-Scale Disaster Insurance: The Pesperctive from Wenchuan Earthquake and Southern Freezing Rain and Snowstorm Disaster, China. Paper presented at the 2^nd International Conference on Asian Catastrophe Insurance, 8–9 December 2009, Beijing, China.

[13] Shi, P. J., J. A. Wang, W. Xu, J. Du, and S. Q. Du. 2009. Integrated Large Scale Disaster Risk Governance. Paper presented at the 9th IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management, 12–16 October 2009, Kyoto, Japan.

[14] UNDP (United Nations Development Programme) Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development, 2004, New York: UNDP

[15] Wang J. A., Shi P. J., Yi X. S., Jia H. C., Zhu L. Y.. The Regionalization of Urban Natural Disasters in China. Natural Hazards, 2008, 44(2): 169-79