Heat Risk Communication by Operational Meteorologists in Indonesia: Current Operational Challenges and Decision-Making Dilemmas in Heat Early Warning System

Abstract

The rapid change of heat patterns resulting from human-induced climate change are affecting the heat thresholds used in early warning systems. In Indonesia, the current heat early warning guidelines employ a nationwide fixed threshold that, considering current heat trends, may fail to adequately capture localized heat stress and vulnerability. In such conditions, operational meteorologists (OMs) authorized to issue warnings may face challenges and dilemmas when implementing heat early warning systems (HEWS) using existing thresholds. This study explores the decision-making processes and challenges faced by OMs using a cross-sectional survey involving 140 OMs serving in urban coastal areas across 31 provinces in Indonesia using hierarchical ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. We identified terminology ambiguity and reliance on weather station data as the primary technical and institutional determinants of dissemination challenges. Furthermore, the decision to issue a warning is predicted by past experience with successful warnings and the adoption of a “liberal” warning philosophy. These findings also provide conceptual insights into how institutional constraints and personal judgment interact to shape HEWS operations and contribute to the broader theoretical understanding of OMs’ decision making under uncertainty.

Keywords

Communication / Decision making / Heat early warning systems / Indonesia / Meteorologist

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Funding

Copenhagen University

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