Unequal Access to Emergency Facilities for Older Adults: A Spatial Analysis in Shanghai, China

Abstract

Increasingly frequent disasters and the heightened vulnerability of older adults highlight the need for equitable access to lifesaving resources such as evacuation shelters and emergency supply storage. This study evaluates whether the spatial accessibility of these facilities aligns with the distribution of older residents in core and non-core areas of Pudong New Area, Shanghai Municipality. We develop a spatial equity framework employing bivariate local Moran’s I, Lorenz curves, and Gini coefficients to quantify alignment and inequity, using data from the First National Survey on Natural Disaster Risks (2020–2022). Our analysis uncovers a pronounced spatial disconnect. Both shelters and supply storage cluster in the urban core, leaving older adults in peripheral areas with substantially lower access. Shelters correspond more closely to general population clusters than to older adult clusters, and this misalignment worsens as evacuation time thresholds increase. Emergency supply storage exhibit a more even distribution and a positive spatial correlation with ageing communities, yet Lorenz curve analysis reveals persistent inequities outside the core. These results demonstrate that current facility siting amplifies disaster inequities for older adults. We therefore recommend that emergency planning move beyond per capita targets to incorporate spatial accessibility metrics and age-sensitive siting strategies, ensuring that vulnerable populations have timely access to shelter and supplies when disasters occur.

Keywords

Distributional equity / Emergency facility accessibility / Older adults / Shanghai / Spatial clustering / 2SFCA

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