Process Chain of a Potential Transboundary Glacial Lake Outburst Flood at Qiangzongke Co, Southwestern Tibet, China, Using Multi-Source Data and Hydrodynamic Modeling

Abstract

The acceleration of climate change has led to an increase in the frequency of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Himalayas, resulting in significant devastation. InSAR data indicate that Qiangzongke Co, located in southwestern Tibet, China near the China-Nepal border, experienced considerable deformation of the adjacent terrain over recent decades, implying a potential landslide. Landslide entry into a glacial lake typically initiates surge waves that propagate forward, eroding the moraine dam and ultimately inducing a GLOF disaster. This study integrated multi-source data and hydrodynamic models to assess the potential GLOF process chain and downstream impact. The results indicate that the surface area of Qiangzongke Co has increased by 194% from 1975 to 2024. From 2018 to 2024, an unstable slope area was identified on the lakefront bank in the upper reaches of northern Qiangzongke Co, with a maximum annual displacement rate of over 100 mm. The potential landslide-induced GLOF is estimated to reach a peak discharge of 1.9 × 10⁴ m³/s, threatening 101 buildings in China and 45 in Nepal. This research can effectively facilitate the establishment of GLOF early warning systems, the planning of major projects, and the development of regional disaster prevention frameworks.

Keywords

Glacial lake / Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) / InSAR / Landslide / Numerical simulation

References

[1] Ahmed R, Wani GF, Ahmad ST, Sahana M, Singh H, Ahmed P. A review of glacial lake expansion and associated glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalayan region. Earth Systems and Environment, 2021, 5(3): 695-708

[2] Azarafza M, Akgün H, Ghazifard A, Asghari-Kaljahi E, Rahnamarad J, Derakhshani R. Discontinuous rock slope stability analysis by limit equilibrium approaches –– A review. International Journal of Digital Earth, 2021, 14(12): 1918-1941

[3] Byers AC, Rounce DR, Shugar DH, Lala JM, Byers EA, Regmi D. A rockfall-induced glacial lake outburst flood, Upper Barun Valley. Nepal. Landslides, 2019, 16(3): 533-549

[4] Cenderelli DA, Wohl EE. Peak discharge estimates of glacial-lake outburst floods and “normal” climatic floods in the Mount Everest region. Nepal. Geomorphology, 2001, 40(1–2): 57-90

[5] Chen C, Hollingsworth J, Clark MK, Chamlagain D, Bista S, Zekkos D, Siwakoti A, West AJ. Erosional cascade during the 2021 Melamchi flood. Nature Geoscience, 2025, 18(1): 32-36

[6] Chen F, Lin H, Li Z, Chen Q, Zhou J. Interaction between permafrost and infrastructure along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway detected via jointly analysis of C-and L-band small baseline SAR interferometry. Remote Sensing of Environment, 2012, 123: 532-540

[7] Chen M, Chen Y, Fang G, Zheng G, Li Z, Li Y, Zhu Z. Risk assessment of glacial lake outburst flood in the Central Asian Tienshan Mountains. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2024, 7(1): 209

[8] Chen N, Liu M, Allen S, Deng M, Khanal NR, Peng T, Tian S, Huggel C, et al.. Small outbursts into big disasters: Earthquakes exacerbate climate-driven cascade processes of the glacial lakes failure in the Himalayas. Geomorphology, 2023, 422: 108539

[9] Cody E, Anderson BM, McColl ST, Fuller IC, Purdie HL. Paraglacial adjustment of sediment slopes during and immediately after glacial debuttressing. Geomorphology, 2020, 371: 107411

[10] Cook KL, Andermann C, Gimbert F, Adhikari BR, Hovius N. Glacial lake outburst floods as drivers of fluvial erosion in the Himalaya. Science, 2018, 362(6410): 53-57

[11] Duan H, Yao X, Zhang Y, Jin H, Wang Q, Du Z, Hu J, Wang B, et al.. Lake volume and potential hazards of moraine-dammed glacial lakes –– A case study of Bienong Co, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The Cryosphere, 2023, 17(2): 591-616

[12] Dubey S, Goyal MK. Glacial lake outburst flood hazard, downstream impact, and risk over the Indian Himalayas. Water Resources Research, 2020, 56(4): e2019WR026533

[13] Evans SG. The maximum discharge of outburst floods caused by the breaching of man-made and natural dams. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 1986, 23(3): 385-387

[14] Fujita K, Sakai A, Takenaka S, Nuimura T, Surazakov AB, Sawagaki T, Yamanokuchi T. Potential flood volume of Himalayan glacial lakes. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2013, 13(7): 1827-1839

[15] Gong P, Liu H, Zhang M, Li C, Wang J, Huang H, Clinton N, Ji L, et al.. Stable classification with limited sample: Transferring a 30-m resolution sample set collected in 2015 to mapping 10-m resolution global land cover in 2017. Science Bulletin, 2019, 64(6): 370-373

[16] Gouli MR, Hu K, Khadka N, Liu S, Yifan S, Adhikari M, Talchabhadel R. Quantitative assessment of the GLOF risk along China-Nepal transboundary basins by integrating remote sensing, machine learning, and hydrodynamic model. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2025, 118: 105231

[17] Gu XT, Yue ZR, Hu TF, Chen JL. Study on orthogonal test on the influence factors of frost depth and frost heave deformation of moraine soil in Chada Gully. Xizang. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2024, 46(1): 272-283

[18] Hanshaw MN, Bookhagen B. Glacial areas, lake areas, and snow lines from 1975 to 2012: Status of the Cordillera Vilcanota, including the Quelccaya Ice Cap, northern central Andes Peru. The Cryosphere, 2014, 8(2): 359-376

[19] Huggel C, Kääb A, Haeberli W, Teysseire P, Paul F. Remote sensing based assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: A case study in the Swiss Alps. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 2002, 39(2): 316-330

[20] Hugonnet R, McNabb R, Berthier E, Menounos B, Nuth C, Girod L, Farinotti D, Huss M, et al.. Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century. Nature, 2021, 592(7856): 726-731

[21] Jia MC, Zheng YM, Huang J. Mechanical properties of glacial till in Pulan, Xizang. Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University, 2024, 60: 1-8(in Chinese)

[22] Khadka N, Chen X, Liu W, Gouli MR, Zhang C, Shrestha B, Sharma S. Glacial lake outburst floods threaten China-Nepal connectivity: Synergistic study of remote sensing, GIS and hydrodynamic modeling with regional implications. Science of the Total Environment, 2024, 948: 174701

[23] Khadka N, Chen X, Shrestha M, Liu W. Risk perception and vulnerability of communities in Nepal to transboundary glacial lake outburst floods from Tibet, China. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2024, 107: 104476

[24] Khanal NR, Hu JM, Mool P. Glacial lake outburst flood risk in the Poiqu/Bhote Koshi/Sun Koshi river basin in the Central Himalayas. Mountain Research and Development, 2015, 35(4): 351-364

[25] King O, Bhattacharya A, Bhambri R, Bolch T. Glacial lakes exacerbate Himalayan glacier mass loss. Scientific Reports, 2019, 9(1): 18145

[26] Kuang X, Jiao JJ. Review on climate change on the Tibetan Plateau during the last half century. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2016, 121(8): 3979-4007

[27] Kumar N, Verma AK, Sardana S, Sarkar K, Singh TN. Comparative analysis of limit equilibrium and numerical methods for prediction of a landslide. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment, 2018, 77(2): 595-608

[28] Lemaire E, Walden J, Higman B, Dufresne A, Hamdi P, Manconi A, Amann F. Progressive development of a paraglacial rock slope failure at Portage Glacier, Alaska. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 2025, 130(11): e2024JF008255

[29] Li D, Lu X, Walling DE, Zhang T, Steiner JF, Wasson RJ, Harrison S, Nepal S, et al.. High Mountain Asia hydropower systems threatened by climate-driven landscape instability. Nature Geoscience, 2022, 15(7): 520-530

[30] Lützow N, Veh G, Korup O. A global database of historic glacier lake outburst floods. Earth System Science Data, 2023, 15(7): 2983-3000

[31] Majeed U, Rashid I, Sattar A, Allen S, Stoffel M, Nüsser M, Schmidt S. Recession of Gya Glacier and the 2014 glacial lake outburst flood in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh India. Science of the Total Environment, 2021, 756: 144008

[32] Medeu AR, Popov NV, Blagovechshenskiy VP, Askarova MA, Medeu AA, Ranova SU, Kamalbekova A, Bolch T. Moraine-dammed glacial lakes and threat of glacial debris flows in South-East Kazakhstan. Earth-Science Reviews, 2022, 229: 103999

[33] Mergili M, Fischer JT, Krenn J, Pudasaini SP. r. avaflow v1, an advanced open-source computational framework for the propagation and interaction of two-phase mass flows. Geoscientific Model Development, 2017, 10(2): 553-569

[34] Mool PK. Glacier lake outburst floods in Nepal. Journal of Nepal Geological Society, 1995, 11: 273-280

[35] Osmanoğlu B, Sunar F, Wdowinski S, Cabral-Cano E. Time series analysis of InSAR data: Methods and trends. ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, 2016, 115: 90-102

[36] Patton AI, Rathburn SL, Capps DM. Landslide response to climate change in permafrost regions. Geomorphology, 2019, 340: 116-128

[37] Peng M, Wang X, Zhang G, Veh G, Sattar A, Chen W, Allen S. Cascading hazards from two recent glacial lake outburst floods in the Nyainqêntanglha range, Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Hydrology, 2023, 626: 130155

[38] Pudasaini SP, Mergili M. A multi-phase mass flow model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 2019, 124(12): 2920-2942

[39] Rinzin S, Dunning S, Carr RJ, Sattar A, Mergili M. Exploring implications of input parameter uncertainties in glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) modelling results using the modelling code r. avaflow. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2025, 25(6): 1841-1864

[40] Rinzin S, Zhang G, Sattar A, Wangchuk S, Allen SK, Dunning S, Peng M. GLOF hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya. Journal of Hydrology, 2023, 619: 129311

[41] Saha S, Bera B, Bhattacharjee S, Ghosh D, Tamang L, Shit PK, Sengupta N. Identification of the multiple causes of recent series of landslides and related damage by extreme rainfall and GLOF in Sikkim Himalaya, India, during October 2023. Landslides, 2024, 21(12): 2993-3009

[42] Sattar A, Cook KL, Rai SK, Berthier E, Allen S, Rinzin S, Van Wyk M, de Vries W, Haeberli, et al.. The Sikkim flood of October 2023: Drivers, causes, and impacts of a multihazard cascade. Science, 2025, 387(6740): eads2659

[43] Sattar A, Haritashya UK, Kargel JS, Karki A. Transition of a small Himalayan glacier lake outburst flood to a giant transborder flood and debris flow. Scientific Reports, 2022, 12(1): 12421

[44] Scawthorn C, Flores P, Blais N, Seligson H, Tate E, Chang S, Lawrence M. HAZUS-MH flood loss estimation methodology. II. Damage and loss assessment. Natural Hazards Review, 2006, 7(2): 72-81

[45] Shi M, Peng J, Chen X, Zheng Y, Yang H, Su Y, Wang G, Wang W. An improved method for InSAR atmospheric phase correction in mountainous areas. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, 2021, 14: 10509-10519

[46] Shrestha F, Steiner JF, Shrestha R, Dhungel Y, Joshi SP, Inglis S, Ashraf A, Wali S, et al.. A comprehensive and version-controlled database of glacial lake outburst floods in High Mountain Asia. Earth System Science Data, 2023, 15(9): 3941-3961

[47] Shugar DH, Burr A, Haritashya UK, Kargel JS, Watson CS, Kennedy MC, Bevington AR, Betts RA, et al.. Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990. Nature Climate Change, 2020, 10(10): 939-945

[48] Song C, Sheng Y, Wang J, Ke L, Madson A, Nie Y. Heterogeneous glacial lake changes and links of lake expansions to the rapid thinning of adjacent glacier termini in the Himalayas. Geomorphology, 2017, 280: 30-38

[49] Wang SJ. Variations of extreme temperature in the Mount Qomolangma region in China during 1971–2020. Journal of Mountain Science, 2023, 20(12): 3488-3499

[50] Wang M, Shen ZK. Present-day crustal deformation of continental China derived from GPS and its tectonic implications. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 2020, 125(2): e2019JB018774

[51] Wang W, Gao Y, Iribarren Anacona P, Lei Y, Xiang Y, Zhang G, Li S, Lu A. Integrated hazard assessment of Cirenmaco glacial lake in Zhangzangbo valley, central Himalayas. Geomorphology, 2018, 306: 292-305

[52] Wang X, Zhang G, Veh G, Sattar A, Wang W, Allen SK, Bolch T, Peng M, Xu F. Reconstructing glacial lake outburst floods in the Poiqu River basin, central Himalaya. Geomorphology, 2024, 449: 109063

[53] Westoby MJ, Glasser NF, Brasington J, Hambrey MJ, Quincey DJ, Reynolds JM. Modelling outburst floods from moraine-dammed glacial lakes. Earth-Science Reviews, 2014, 134: 137-159

[54] Wood JL, Harrison S, Wilson R, Emmer A, Kargel JS, Cook SJ, Glasser NF, Reynolds JM, et al.. Shaking up assumptions: Earthquakes have rarely triggered Andean glacier lake outburst floods. Geophysical Research Letters, 2024, 51(7): e2023GL105578

[55] Yang DX, You Y, Wang JZ, Yang D, Liu JK. Characteristics of typical glacial tills in Parlung Zangbo basin in southeastern Tibet and its engineering effect. Journal of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Engineering, 2020, 40(6): 841-851

[56] Zemp M, Huss M, Thibert E, Eckert N, McNabb R, Huber J, Barandun M, Machguth H, et al.. Global glacier mass changes and their contributions to sea-level rise from 1961 to 2016. Nature, 2019, 568(7752): 382-386

[57] Zhang G, Carrivick JL, Emmer A, Shugar DH, Veh G, Wang X, Labedz C, Mergili M, et al.. Characteristics and changes of glacial lakes and outburst floods. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 2024, 5(6): 447-462

[58] Zhang G, Yao T, Xie H, Wang W, Yang W. An inventory of glacial lakes in the Third Pole region and their changes in response to global warming. Global and Planetary Change, 2015, 131: 148-157

[59] Zhang T, Wang W, An B. A massive lateral moraine collapse triggered the 2023 South Lhonak Lake outburst flood. Sikkim Himalayas. Landslides, 2025, 22(2): 299-311

[60] Zhang T, Wang W, Gao T, An B, Yao T. An integrative method for identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Himalayas. Science of the Total Environment, 2022, 806: 150442

[61] Zheng G, Mergili M, Emmer A, Allen S, Bao A, Guo H, Stoffel M. The 2020 glacial lake outburst flood at Jinwuco, Tibet: Causes, impacts, and implications for hazard and risk assessment. The Cryosphere, 2021, 15(7): 3159-3180

[62] Zhong Y, Liu Q, Westoby M, Nie Y, Pellicciotti F, Zhang B, Lu X. Intensified paraglacial slope failures due to accelerating downwasting of a temperate glacier in Mt. Gongga, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Earth Surface Dynamics, 2022, 10(1): 23-42

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s)

Just Accepted

This article has successfully passed peer review and final editorial review, and will soon enter typesetting, proofreading and other publishing processes. The currently displayed version is the accepted final manuscript. The officially published version will be updated with format, DOI and citation information upon launch. We recommend that you pay attention to subsequent journal notifications and preferentially cite the officially published version. Thank you for your support and cooperation.