Balancing Safety and Mobility: Experience with Iceland’s SMS Avalanche Warning System

Abstract

Early warning systems should balance safety and mobility, especially where a few lifeline roads connect remote communities. This article examines Iceland’s Short Message Service (SMS) avalanche warning service as an impact-based early warning system in the context of road safety. It explores how SMS alerts and resulting road closures shape trust in the Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration (Vegagerðin), perceived safety, and travel behavior. An online census-style survey targeted all 1,704 registered SMS users in the country and received 545 valid responses (32.2%). Analysis relied on descriptive statistics and coding of open-ended comments. Respondents reported high awareness of avalanche danger levels and strong trust in Vegagerðin’s closure decisions. Most participants felt safer because of the SMS service and were not bothered by precautionary false alarms, although behavioral responses varied by warning type and region. Residents of the Westfjords, who depend on lifeline roads, were more likely to continue traveling under elevated danger. Confusion between SMS A (heightened caution) and SMS B (uncertainty) indicates that message design influences protective action. Open comments showed broad satisfaction with the system but called for clearer terms, earlier warnings, more informative follow-up messages, and expanded geographic coverage. The findings indicate that Iceland’s SMS system functions as a trusted, low-barrier tool that broadly supports people-centered early warning objectives while also revealing important gaps. Enhancing message clarity, strengthening outreach to younger and non-Icelandic-speaking drivers, and aligning warning practices more closely with local mobility constraints could further improve the contribution of SMS-based alerts to road safety and avalanche risk management.

Keywords

Avalanche risk / Early warning / Iceland / Public trust / Risk communication / Road closures

References

[1] Adam, D. 2023. West and Westfjords roads in dangerously poor condition. https://www.ruv.is/english/2023-02-23-west-and-westfjords-roads-in-dangerously-poor-condition. Accessed 23 Jan 2026.

[2] Adam, D. 2024. Five new tunnels wanted in Westfjords. https://www.ruv.is/english/2024-10-21-five-new-tunnels-wanted-in-westfjords-425267. Accessed 23 Jan 2026.

[3] Almannavarnir. n.d. Civil Protection emergency levels/phases.https://www.almannavarnir.is/english/general-information/emergency-response/. Accessed 30 Jan 2026.

[4] Arnadottir, A.T., G.F. Ulfarsson, and S. Kim. 2025. Single-vehicle injury crashes on rural roads in Iceland: Contribution of unforgiving roadsides to fatal and serious injuries of vehicle occupants. Traffic Safety Research 9: Article e000083

[5] Bannan D, Ólafsdóttir R, Hennig BD. Local perspectives on climate change, its impact and adaptation: A case study from the Westfjords region of Iceland. Climate, 2022, 10(11): 169

[6] Baudoin M-A, Henly-Shepard S, Fernando N, Sitati A, Zommers Z. From top-down to “community-centric” approaches to early warning systems: Exploring pathways to improve disaster risk reduction through community participation. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2016, 7(2): 163-174

[7] Bessason B, Eiríksson G, Thórarinsson O, Thórarinsson A, Einarsson S. Automatic detection of avalanches and debris flows by seismic methods. Journal of Glaciology, 2007, 53(182): 461-472

[8] Bhardwaj J, Asghari A, Aitkenhead I, Jackson M, Kuleshov Y. Climate risk and early warning systems: Adaptation strategies for the most vulnerable communities. Journal of Science Policy & Governance, 2021

[9] Bird, D.K., and G. Gísladóttir. 2018. Responding to volcanic eruptions in Iceland: From the small to the catastrophic. Palgrave Communications 4(1): Article 151

[10] Bird DK, Gísladóttir G, Dominey-Howes D. Different communities, different perspectives: Issues affecting residents’ response to a volcanic eruption in southern Iceland. Bulletin of Volcanology, 2011, 73(9): 1209-1227

[11] Creswell JW, Creswell JDResearch design: Qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches, 20226Thousand Oaks, CASAGE Publications

[12] Decaulne A. Snow-avalanche and debris-flow hazards in the fjords of north-western Iceland, mitigation and prevention. Natural Hazards, 2007, 41(1): 81-98

[13] Diakakis, M., M. Skordoulis, and P. Kyriakopoulos. 2022. Public perceptions of flood and extreme weather early warnings in Greece. Sustainability 14(16): Article 10199

[14] Dillman DA, Smyth JD, Christian LMInternet, phone, mail, and mixed-mode surveys: The tailored design method, 2014Hoboken, NJWiley

[15] Eckerstorfer M, Vickers H, Malnes E, Grahn J. Near-real time automatic snow avalanche activity monitoring system using Sentinel-1 SAR data in Norway. Remote Sensing, 2019

[16] Eikenes ÅH, Sivle AD, Jeuring J. Combining design-driven innovation with plain language to improve warning communication. Nordic Journal of Innovation in the Public Sector, 2025, 4(1): 1-19

[17] Eiser JR, Donovan A, Sparks RSJ. Risk perceptions and trust following the 2010 and 2011 Icelandic volcanic ash crises. Risk Analysis, 2015, 35(2): 332-343

[18] eurostat. 2025. Passenger cars – Per thousand inhabitants. https://doi.org/10.2908/ROAD_EQS_CARHAB. Accessed 17 Oct 2025.

[19] Hilmarsson, Ó. 2018. Avalanches in Iceland in the winter 2017–2018 (Snjóflóð á Íslandi veturinn 2017–2018). https://www.vedur.is/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2018/VI_2018_015_rs.pdf. Accessed 22 Jan 2026.

[20] Hovelsrud GK, Karlsson M, Olsen J. Prepared and flexible: Local adaptation strategies for avalanche risk. Cogent Social Sciences, 2018

[21] Icelandic Met Office. 2017. IMO: Impact based color-coded warnings on web. https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/imo-impact-based-color-coded-warnings-on-web. Accessed 21 Jan 2026.

[22] Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration. n.d. Winter services. Reykjavík: Icelandic Road and Coastal Administration.

[23] Jacobsen JKS, Leiren MD, Saarinen J. Natural hazard experiences and adaptations: A study of winter climate-induced road closures in Norway. Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift, 2016, 70(5): 292-305

[24] Jeuring J, Sivle A, Bredesen R, Ingebrigtsen KO. Warning perceptions and response for ice throw risk in Norwegian wind farms. Weather, Climate, and Society, 2025, 17(3): 555-574

[25] Jóhannesdóttir G, Gísladóttir G. People living under threat of volcanic hazard in southern Iceland: Vulnerability and risk perception. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2010, 10(2): 407-420

[26] Jónasdóttir, S., and H.R. Helgadóttir. 2025. Avalanches in Iceland, winter 2023–2024 (Snjóflóð á Íslandi veturinn 2023–2024 Veðurstofa Íslands). https://www.vedur.is/media/ads_in_header/Snjoflod-a-Islandi-2023-2024.pdf. Accessed 23 Jan 2026.

[27] Kokorsch M, Gísladóttir J. “You talk of threat, but we think of comfort”: The role of place attachment in small remote communities in Iceland that experience avalanche threat. Regional Environmental Change, 2023, 23(4): 1-11

[28] Leiren MD, Jacobsen JKS. Silos as barriers to public sector climate adaptation and preparedness: Insights from road closures in Norway. Local Government Studies, 2018, 44(4): 492-511

[29] Marchezini V. Transnational dialogues on interdisciplinary approaches for advancing people-centered warning systems. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2023, 14(5): 868-872

[30] Neußner, O. 2021. Early warning alerts for extreme natural hazard events: A review of worldwide practices. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 60: Article 102295

[31] Orset, K.I., and M.H. Frekhaug. 2024. Natural hazard preparedness in the Norwegian Public Roads Administration (NPRA). In Proceedings of the International Snow Science Workshop 2024, 23–27 September 2024, Tromsø, Norway, 252–256.

[32] Potter, S.H., T. Kox, B. Mills, A. Taylor, J. Robbins, C. Cerrudo, F. Wyatt, S. Harrison, et al. 2025. Research gaps and challenges for impact-based forecasts and warnings: Results of international workshops for High Impact Weather in 2022. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 118: Article 105234

[33] Ripberger JT, Silva CL, Jenkins-Smith HC, Carlson DE, James M, Herron KG. False alarms and missed events: The impact and origins of perceived inaccuracy in tornado warning systems. Risk Analysis, 2015, 35(1): 44-56

[34] Rokhideh M, Fearnley C, Budimir M. Multi-hazard early warning systems in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: Achievements, gaps, and future directions. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2025, 16(1): 103-116

[35] Sadiq AA, Okhai R, Tyler J, Entress R. Public alert and warning system literature review in the USA: Identifying research gaps and lessons for practice. Natural Hazards, 2023, 117(2): 1711-1744

[36] Sawada Y, Kanai R, Kotani H. Impact of cry wolf effects on social preparedness and the efficiency of flood early warning systems. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2022, 26(16): 4265-4278

[37] Sigurðardóttir, M., Ó. Hilmarsson, and H. Þórisdóttir. 2022. Avalanches in Iceland in the winter 2020–2021 (Snjóflóð á Íslandi veturinn 2020–2021). https://www.vedur.is/media/vedurstofan-utgafa-2022/VI_2022_007_annall.pdf. Accessed 21 Jan 2026.

[38] Sigurðsson, G., H. Grímsdóttir, and M.H. Jónsson. 2019. Avalanches on Icelandic roads. In Proceedings of the International Symposium on Mitigative Measures against Snow Avalanches and Other Rapid Gravity Mass Flows, 3–5 April 2019, Siglufjörður, North Iceland.

[39] Smith KR, Grant S, Thomas RE. Testing the public’s response to receiving severe flood warnings using simulated cell broadcast. Natural Hazards, 2022, 112(2): 1611-1631

[40] Stötter, J. 2009. Avalanche risk assessment for mountain roads – A comparison of case studies from Iceland and the Alps. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/252962693. Accessed 16 Oct 2025.

[41] UNISDR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction). 2015. Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. https://www.preventionweb.net/files/43291_sendaiframeworkfordrren.pdf. Accessed 15 Oct 2025.

[42] UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) and CIMA Research Foundation. 2024. Handbook on the use of risk knowledge for multi-hazard early warning systems. Geneva: UNDRR.

[43] UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization)Global status of multi-hazard early warning systems, 2025GenevaUNDRR

[44] Vivier, B., C. van Arum, H. Straume, A. Grangeat, and P. Gomez. 2019. Public warning systems. https://eena.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/2021_02_18_PWS_Document_FINAL_Compressed.pdf. Accessed 20 Jan 2026

[45] WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2015. WMO guidelines on multi-hazard impact-based forecast and warning services. WMO-No. 1150. Geneva: WMO.

[46] WMO (World Meteorological Organization)Early warnings for all: The UN global early warning initiative for the implementation of climate adaptation, 2022GenevaWMO

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s)