The Role of Prior Disaster Experience in Shaping Risk Perception and Preparedness in Brazil

Abstract

The intensification of extreme rainfall events, driven by climate change, has exacerbated hydrological hazards in Brazil, affecting millions of people. This study investigated how previous disaster experience influences individuals’ self-preparedness and key elements of community resilience, following the model by Norris et al. (2008), which includes information, social capital, community competence, and economic resources. A total of 1064 responses to a structured questionnaire survey was analyzed using the χ² test to identify statistical associations between behavioral variables and disaster experience. The results show that individuals with prior disaster experience report higher levels of perceived individual preparedness, concern about the impacts of heavy rainfall, and greater sensitivity to climate change. However, direct experience did not translate into greater confidence in institutional measures or stronger perceptions of community preparedness, revealing weaknesses in information flows and social cohesion. All interpretations are presented strictly in relation to the sample and do not imply population-level generalization. The study reinforces the relevance of experiential learning in shaping risk perception and preparedness, while highlighting contextual constraints associated with Brazil’s socio-spatial inequalities and uneven governance capacities. These findings underscore the need for policies that strengthen institutional credibility, participatory risk communication, and community-level preparedness structures. The findings contribute to advancing risk management strategies in vulnerable contexts.

Keywords

Community resilience / Disaster preparedness / Heavy rainfall / Hydrological disasters / Previous disaster experience / Risk perception

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