Pedestrian Evacuation Simulation Considering Hiding Behavior and Obstacle Configurations Under Violent Attacks

Abstract

Analyzing pedestrian evacuation dynamics under violent attacks is critical for understanding the risk evolution of this specific disaster scenario. One particularity of pedestrian movement under violent attacks is that pedestrians would intend to hide toward obstacles for protection when they cannot escape from exits immediately. However, the hiding behavior and obstacles have attracted little attention in existing simulation studies. To fill this gap, an extended cellular automaton model for pedestrian evacuation coupling interactions between attackers, pedestrians, and obstacles was constructed. In the model, the motion and assaultive behaviors of the attacker are modeled. The movement rules of three types of pedestrians are elaborated respectively. In particular, the hiding behaviors are taken into account, the decision-making process of Type-I pedestrians to move towards obstacle hiding zones or exits is characterized, and a novel exit selection strategy for Type-I pedestrians is proposed. The effects of critical factors on pedestrian evacuation dynamics are fully analyzed. Results indicate that an optimal individual hiding intensity is essential for reducing fatalities and enhancing evacuation efficiency. There is an optimal length of the obstacle to maximize the evacuation performance, while the location and number of obstacles, as well as the exit configuration, have considerable impacts on pedestrian evacuation time and death tolls. Placing a single obstacle perpendicular to the exit achieves the most effective evacuation outcomes. Additionally, placing two exits on opposite walls or a single exit in the corner is more useful. Increasing exit width and numbers can significantly shorten evacuation time for crowds.

Keywords

Attack hazards / Hiding behavior / Obstacles / Pedestrian evacuation model

References

[1] Cao, S., J. Qian, X. Li, and J. Ni. 2022. Evacuation simulation considering the heterogeneity of pedestrian under terrorist attacks. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 79: Article 103203.

[2] Chen, C.-K., and Y.-H. Tong. 2019. Evacuation simulation considering action of guard in artificial attack. Chinese Physics B 28(1): Article 010503.

[3] Chen, C., H. Sun, P. Lei, D. Zhao, and C. Shi. 2021. An extended model for crowd evacuation considering pedestrian panic in artificial attack. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 571: Article 125833.

[4] Chen, C., Y. Tong, C. Shi, and W. Qin. 2018. An extended model for describing pedestrian evacuation under the threat of artificial attack. Physics Letters A 382(35): Article 2445–2454.

[5] Ding, N., Z. Fan, X. Zhu, S. Lin, and Y. Wang. 2024. Multi-agent modeling of crowd dynamics under bombing attack cases. Frontiers in Physics 11: Article 1200927.

[6] Ding, N., Y. Ma, D. Dong, and Y. Wang. 2021. Experiment and simulation study of emergency evacuation during violent attack in classrooms. Journal of Safety Science and Resilience 2(4): Article 208–221.

[7] Ding, Z., S. Xu, X. Xie, K. Zheng, D. Wang, J. Fan, H. Li, and L. Liao. 2024. A building information modeling-based fire emergency evacuation simulation system for large infrastructures. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 244: Article 109917.

[8] D’Orazio M, Quagliarini E, Bernardini G, Spalazzi L. EPES – Earthquake pedestrians’ evacuation simulator: A tool for predicting earthquake pedestrians’ evacuation in urban outdoor scenarios. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2014, 10: 153-177.

[9] Fu, L., Y. Liu, H. Qin, Q. Shi, Y. Zhang, Y. Shi, and J.T.Y. Lo. 2022. An experimental study on bidirectional pedestrian flow involving individuals with simulated disabilities in a corridor. Safety Science 150: Article 105723.

[10] Gao, D., E.W.M. Lee, and Y.Y. Lee. 2023. The influence of context effects on exit choice behavior during building evacuation combining virtual reality and discrete choice modeling. Advanced Engineering Informatics 57: Article 102072.

[11] Helbing D, Farkas I, Vicsek T. Simulating dynamical features of escape panic. Nature, 2000, 407(6803): 487-490.

[12] Huo, F., S. Deng, C. Guo, Y. Ma, and W. Zhang. 2024. Evacuation simulation considering pedestrian risk perception under toxic gas diffusion. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 109: Article 104589.

[13] Huo, F., C. Li, Y. Li, W. Lv, and Y. Ma. 2022. An extended model for describing pedestrian evacuation considering the impact of obstacles on the visual view. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 604: Article 127932.

[14] Jiang Y-Q, Guo R-Y, Tian F-B, Zhou S-G. Macroscopic modeling of pedestrian flow based on a second-order predictive dynamic model. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 2016, 40(23–24): 9806-9820.

[15] Jiang Y-Q, Zhou S-G, Tian F-B. A higher-order macroscopic model for bi-direction pedestrian flow. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2015, 425: 69-78.

[16] Li S, Zhuang J, Shen S. A three-stage evacuation decision-making and behavior model for the onset of an attack. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 2017, 79: 119-135.

[17] Lin P, Ma J, Liu TY, Ran T, Si YL, Wu FY, Wang GY. An experimental study of the impact of an obstacle on the escape efficiency by using mice under high competition. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2017, 482: 228-242.

[18] Liu, Q. 2020. A social force approach for the defensive strategy of security guards in a terrorist attack. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 46: Article 101605.

[19] Liu, J., Y. Jia, T. Mao, and Z. Wang. 2022. Modeling and simulation analysis of crowd evacuation behavior under terrorist attack. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 604: Article 127891.

[20] Liu S, Lo S, Ma J, Wang W. An agent-based microscopic pedestrian flow simulation model for pedestrian traffic problems. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2014, 15(3): 992-1001.

[21] Liu, J., H. Zhang, N. Ding, and Y. Li. 2024. A modified social force model for sudden attack evacuation based on Yerkes-Dodson Law and the tendency toward low risk areas. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 633: Article 129403.

[22] Lu P, Li M, Zhang Z. The crowd dynamics under terrorist attacks revealed by simulations of three-dimensional agents. Artificial Intelligence Review, 2023, 56(11): 13103-13125.

[23] Lu X, Yang Z, Cimellaro GP, Xu Z. Pedestrian evacuation simulation under the scenario with earthquake-induced falling debris. Safety Science, 2019, 114: 61-71.

[24] Marzouk, M., and F. Hassan. 2022. Modeling evacuation and visitation proximity in museums using agent-based simulation. Journal of Building Engineering 56: Article 104794.

[25] Moustaid E, Flötteröd G. Macroscopic model of multidirectional pedestrian network flows. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2021, 145: 1-23.

[26] Niu, H., Y. Zhang, L. Li, Y. Han, Q. Hou, and S. Niu. 2024. Analysis of the effect of obstacles on evacuation efficiency in emergencies. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment 2024(6): Article 063405.

[27] Ren G, Lu L, Wang W, Gong X, Huang Z. Microscopic simulation model for pedestrian flow at signalized crosswalks. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2014, 2434(1): 113-122.

[28] Shi X, Ye Z, Shiwakoti N, Tang D, Lin J. Examining effect of architectural adjustment on pedestrian crowd flow at bottleneck. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2019, 522: 350-364.

[29] Shiwakoti N, Sarvi M, Rose G, Burd M. Animal dynamics based approach for modeling pedestrian crowd egress under panic conditions. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 2011, 45(9): 1433-1449.

[30] Song Y, Liu B, Li L, Liu J. Modelling and simulation of crowd evacuation in terrorist attacks. Kybernetes, 2024, 53(4): 1229-1249.

[31] Subramanian, G.H., N. Choubey, and A. Verma. 2022. Modelling and simulating serpentine group behaviour in crowds using modified social force model. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 604: Article 127674.

[32] Tak S, Kim S, Yeo H. Agent-based pedestrian cell transmission model for evacuation. Transportmetrica A: Transport Science, 2018, 14(5–6): 484-502.

[33] Wang, K., Z. Fu, Y. Li, and S. Qian. 2020. Influence of human-obstacle interaction on evacuation from classrooms. Automation in Construction 116: Article 103234.

[34] Wang J, Ni S, Shen S, Li S. Empirical study of crowd dynamic in public gathering places during a terrorist attack event. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 2019, 523: 1-9.

[35] Xie, C., L. Huang, R. Wang, J. Deng, and Y. Shu. 2022. Ship fire modelling and evacuation simulation in navigation tunnel. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 126: Article 104546.

[36] Yang, L., and N. Ding. 2023. Evacuation behavior under violent attacks in classrooms based on experiments and interpretable machine learning method. Safety Science 166: Article 106243.

[37] Yue, H., J. Zhang, W. Chen, X. Wu, X. Zhang, and C. Shao. 2021. Simulation of the influence of spatial obstacles on evacuation pedestrian flow in walking facilities. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 571: Article 125844.

[38] Zhang, W., C. Li, and W. Gai. 2024. How does evacuation risk change over time? Influences on evacuation strategies during accidental toxic gas releases. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 108: Article 104531.

[39] Zhou, Y., J. Chen, M. Zhong, F. Hua, and J. Sui. 2023. Evacuation effect analysis of guidance strategies on subway station based on modified cellular automata model. Safety Science 168: Article 106309.

[40] Zuriguel I, Echeverría I, Maza D, Hidalgo RC, Martín-Gómez C, Garcimartín A. Contact forces and dynamics of pedestrians evacuating a room: The column effect. Safety Science, 2020, 121: 394-402.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s)

Just Accepted

This article has successfully passed peer review and final editorial review, and will soon enter typesetting, proofreading and other publishing processes. The currently displayed version is the accepted final manuscript. The officially published version will be updated with format, DOI and citation information upon launch. We recommend that you pay attention to subsequent journal notifications and preferentially cite the officially published version. Thank you for your support and cooperation.