Development and Validation of a Scale Based on Protection Motivation Theory to Investigate Factors Affecting Earthquake Preparedness Behaviors

Abstract

Given Türkiye’s high seismic risk, earthquake preparedness is vital. This study explored factors affecting earthquake preparedness behaviors among residents in high-risk areas. The factors affecting earthquake preparedness behaviors Scale based on protection motivation theory was developed, and its validity was tested. Scale development consists of a pilot and main application process. The pilot application was carried out with 50 participants, and the main application was carried out with 804 participants. The sample consisted of 804 participants who were divided into two groups for exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis. The sample was selected from 11 neighborhoods using the cluster sampling method. IBM SPSS 25 was used for exploratory factor analysis, while AMOS 24.0 was employed for confirmatory factor analysis. The final version of the scale consists of 24 items across four dimensions, with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.883, exceeding the acceptable threshold of 0.7 for each dimension. The Kaiser–Meyer–Olkin value is 0.898, and Bartlett’s test of sphericity is significant, with the total variance explained being 51%. Confirmatory factor analysis results indicate a good fit for both the measurement and structural models (χ2/df = 1.779; RMSEA = 0.44; CFI = 0.96; NFI = 0.91; TLI = 0.95; p<0.001). Structural equation modeling showed that, among the constructs of protection motivation theory, perceived efficacy (β = 0.690) is the most important factor affecting earthquake preparedness behaviors. The results show that the scale is a valid and reliable tool to determine the factors affecting earthquake preparedness behaviors in Turkish society.

Keywords

Disaster / Earthquake preparedness / Perceived efficacy / Protection motivation theory / Scale development / Türkiye

References

[1] AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency). 2018. Türkiye earthquake hazard map. Ankara, Turkey: AFAD.

[2] Aghdasi M, OmidiNajafabadi M, Mirdamadi SM, Farajollah Hosseini SJ. Investigating pro-environmental behaviors and institutional drought management mechanisms and their impact on sustainable livelihood in Borkhar-Isfahan region: Application of protection motivation theory (PMT). Journal of Agriculture Science and Technology, 2023, 24(2): 305-320

[3] Ao Y, Zhang H, Yang L, Wang Y, Martek I, Wang G. Impacts of earthquake knowledge and risk perception on earthquake preparedness of rural residents. Natural Hazards, 2021, 107(2): 1287-1310.

[4] Bartlett MS. A further note on the multiplying factors for various Chi-square approximations in factor analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 1954, 16: 296-298.

[5] Becker JS, Paton D, Johnston DM, Ronan KR. A model of household preparedness for earthquakes: How individuals make meaning of earthquake information and how this influences preparedness. Natural Hazards, 2012, 64(1): 107-137.

[6] Becker JS, Paton D, Johnston DM, Ronan KR. Salient beliefs about earthquake hazards and household preparedness. Risk Analysis, 2013, 33(9): 1710-1727.

[7] Botzen WJW, Kunreuther H, Czajkowski J, De Moel H. Adoption of individual flood damage mitigation measures in New York City: An extension of protection motivation theory. Risk Analysis, 2019, 39(10): 2143-2159.

[8] Brown TAConfirmatory factor analysis for applied research, 20152New YorkGuilford Press

[9] Bubeck P, Botzen WJW, Aerts JCJH. A review of risk perceptions and other factors that influence flood mitigation behavior. Risk Analysis, 2012, 32(9): 1481-1495.

[10] Bubeck P, Botzen WWJ, Laudan J, Aerts JCJH, Thieken AH. Insights into flood-coping appraisals of protection motivation theory: Empirical evidence from Germany and France. Risk Analysis, 2018, 38(6): 1239-1257.

[11] Byrne BMStructural equation modeling with AMOS: Basic concepts, applications, and programming, 2010New YorkRoutledge

[12] Clark LA, Watson D. Constructing validity: Basic issues in objective scale development. Psychological Assessment, 1995, 7(3): 309-319.

[13] Clark LA, Watson DKazdin AE. Constructing validity: Basic issues in objective scale development. Methodological issues and strategies in clinical research, 2016Washington, DCAmerican Psychological Association187-203.

[14] Collier DAApplied structural equation modeling using AMOS: Basic to advanced techniques, 2020New YorkRoutledge.

[15] Comrey AL, Lee HBA first course in factor analysis, 1992Hillsdale, NJLawrence Erlbaum Associates Inc

[16] CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster)2023 disasters in numbers, 2024BrusselsCRED

[17] Davarani ER, Nekoei-Moghadam M, Khanjani N, Iranpour A, Chashmyazdan M, Farahmandnia H. Factors related to earthquake preparedness of households based on social-cognitive theory constructs: A systematic review. Frontiers in Public Health, 2023.

[18] Davis LL. Instrument review: Getting the most from your panel of experts. Applied Nursing Research, 1992, 5: 194-197.

[19] DeVellis RFScale development theory and applications, 20123Los Angeles, CASAGE Publications

[20] Duval TS, Mulilis JP. A person-relative-to-event (PrE) approach to negative threat appeals and earthquake preparedness: A field study. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 1999, 29(3): 495-516.

[21] Fabrigar LR, Duane TW, Robert CM, Erin JS. Evaluating the use of exploratory factor analysis in psychological research. Psychological Methods, 1999, 4(3): 272-299.

[22] Faryabi R, Davarani FR, Daneshi S, Moran DP. Investigating the effectiveness of protection motivation theory in predicting behaviors relating to natural disasters, in the households of southern Iran. Frontiers in Public Health, 2023.

[23] Fatehpanah A, Maraghi E, Coetzer-Liversage A, Karimy M, Pakpour AH, Maripour M, Fard NJH, Araban M. Modeling factors related to earthquake preparedness: A structural equation modeling approach. BMC Public Health, 2025.

[24] Fornell C, Larcker DF. Evaluating structural equation models with unobservable variables and measurement error. Journal of Marketing Research, 1981, 18(1): 39-50.

[25] George D, Mallery PSPSS for Windows step by step: A simple guide and reference, 11.0 update, 20034BostonAllyn & Bacon

[26] Ghoreishi M, Bellows B, Lindenschmidt K. Enhancing community resilience to ice-jam floods through individuals’ mitigation efforts. Scientific Reports, 2025.

[27] Goltz JD, Park H, Nakano G, Yamori K. Earthquake ground motion and human behavior: Using DYFI data to assess behavioral response to earthquakes. Earthquake Spectra, 2020, 36(3): 1231-1253.

[28] Gumasing, M.J.J., and M.D.M. Sobrevilla. 2023. Determining factors affecting the protective behavior of Filipinos in urban areas for natural calamities using an integration of protection motivation theory, theory of planned behavior, and ergonomic appraisal: A sustainable disaster preparedness approach. Sustainability 15(8): Article 6427.

[29] Gunawan J, Marzilli C, Aungsuroch Y. Establishing appropriate sample size for developing and validating a questionnaire in nursing research. Belitung Nursing Journal, 2021, 7(5): 356-360.

[30] GünÇınğı T, Yazgan ÇÜ. Examination of risk perception, fear and preparedness of individuals experiencing earthquakes. Afet ve Risk Dergisi, 2022, 5(2): 656-668.

[31] Gürbüz, S. 2019. Structural equation modeling with AMOS, 2nd edn. (AMOS ile yapısal eşitlik modellemesi. 2). Baskı Ankara: Seçkin Yayıncılık (in Turkish).

[32] Habibi H, Feld J. The effects of earthquake exposure on preparedness in the short and long term: A difference-in-differences estimation. Natural Hazards, 2020, 104(2): 1443-1463.

[33] Haddow GD, Bullock JA, Coppola DPHaddow GD, Bullock JA, Coppola DP. Natural and technological hazards and risk assessment. Introduction to emergency management, 20207AmsterdamButterworth-Heinemann33-84.

[34] Hair JF, Black WC, Babin BJ, Anderson REMultivariate data analysis, 20107New JerseyPearson Educational International

[35] Heller K, Alexander DB, Gatz M, Knight BG, Rose T. Social and personal factors as predictors of earthquake preparedness: The role of support provision, network discussion, negative affect, age, and education. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 2005, 35(2): 399-422.

[36] Hu L, Bentler PM. Cutoff criteria for fit indexes in covariance structure analysis: Conventional criteria versus new alternatives. Structural Equation Modeling, 1999, 6(1): 1-55.

[37] Hu S, Yu M, Que T, Fan G, Xing H. Individual willingness to prepare for disasters in a geological hazard risk area: An empirical study based on the protection motivation theory. Natural Hazards, 2021, 110(3): 2087-2111.

[38] Johanson GA, Brooks GP. Initial scale development: Sample size for pilot studies. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 2010, 70(3): 394-400.

[39] Kaiser HF. An index of factorial simplicity. Psychometrika, 1974, 39(1): 31-36.

[40] Keshavarz M, Karami E. Farmers’ pro-environmental behavior under drought: Application of protection motivation theory. Journal of Arid Environments, 2016, 127: 128-136.

[41] Kline RBPrinciples and practice of structural equation modeling, 2005New YorkGilford Press

[42] Kline RBPrinciples and practice of structural equation modeling, 20164New YorkGuilford Press

[43] Kurata, Y.B., A.K.S. Ong, R.Y.B. Ang, J.K.F. Angeles, B.D.C. Bornilla, and J.L.P. Fabia. 2023. Factors affecting flood disaster preparedness and mitigation in flood-prone areas in the Philippines: An integration of protection motivation theory and theory of planned behavior. Sustainability 15(8): Article 6657.

[44] Kurata, Y., Y.T. Prasetyo, A.K.S. Ong, R. Nadlifatin, and T. Chuenyindee. 2022. Factors affecting perceived effectiveness of Typhoon Vamco (Ulysses) flood disaster response among Filipinos in Luzon, Philippines: An integration of protection motivation theory and extended theory of planned behavior. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 67: Article 102670.

[45] Lindell MK, Perry WR. The protective action decision model: Theoretical modifications and additional evidence. Risk Analysis, 2011, 32(4): 616-632.

[46] Lindell MK, Whitney DJ. Correlates of household seismic hazard adjustment adoption. Risk Analysis, 2000, 20(1): 13-25.

[47] Liu, D., X. Chang, S. Wu, Y. Zhang, N. Kong, and X. Zhang. 2024. Influencing factors of urban public flood emergency evacuation decision behavior based on protection motivation theory: An example from Jiaozuo City, China. Sustainability 16(13): Article 5507.

[48] Lovekamp WE, Tate ML. College student disaster risk, fear and preparedness. International Journal of Mass Emergencies & Disasters, 2008, 26(2): 70-90.

[49] Ma, C., D.P. Culhane, and S.S. Bachman. 2024. Understanding the dynamic process of human behavior changes towards disaster preparedness: An application of the integrated TTM with SCT and PMT. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 110: Article 104606.

[50] Ma Z, Guo S, Deng X, Xu D. Community resilience and resident’s disaster preparedness: Evidence from China’s earthquake-stricken areas. Natural Hazards, 2021, 108(1): 567-591.

[51] MacDonell K, Chen X, Yan Y, Li F, Gong J, Sun H, Li X, Stanton B. A protection motivation theory-based scale for tobacco research among Chinese youth. Journal of Addiction Research & Therapy, 2013.

[52] Mao X, Chen K, Hu X, Wen X, Loke AY. Establishment of the psychometric properties of a disaster resilience measuring tool for healthcare rescuers in China: A cross-sectional study. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2021, 12(3): 381-393.

[53] McCaughey JW, Mundir I, Daly P, Mahdi S, Patt A. Trust and distrust of tsunami vertical evacuation buildings: Extending protection motivation theory to examine choices under social influence. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2017, 24: 462-473.

[54] Moon J, Hwang H, Chung J. Factors affecting awareness of preparedness after moderate earthquakes. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 2020, 29(3): 405-420.

[55] Mulilis J, Lippa R. Behavioral change in earthquake preparedness due to negative threat appeals: A test of protection motivation theory. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 1990, 20(8): 619-638.

[56] Mundfrom DJ, Shaw DG, Ke TL. Minimum sample size recommendations for conducting factor analyses. International Journal of Testing, 2005, 5(2): 159-168.

[57] Ong, A.K.S., Y.T. Prasetyo, F.C. Lagura, R.N. Ramos, K.M. Sigua, J.A. Villas, M.N. Young, J.F.T. Diaz, et al. 2021. Factors affecting intention to prepare for mitigation of “The Big One” earthquake in the Philippines: Integrating protection motivation theory and extended theory of planned behavior. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 63: Article 102467.

[58] Oral M, Yenel A, Oral E, Aydin N, Tuncay T. Earthquake experience and preparedness in Turkey. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 2015, 24(1): 21-37.

[59] Över S, Büyüksaraç A, Bekta Ö, Filazi A. Assessment of potential seismic hazard and site effect in Antakya (Hatay Province). SE Turkey. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2010, 62(2): 313-326.

[60] Paton D. Disaster preparedness: A social-cognitive perspective. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 2003, 12(3): 210-216.

[61] Prati G, Saccinto E, Pietrantoni L, Pérez-Testor C. The 2012 northern Italy earthquakes: Modeling human behavior. Natural Hazards, 2013, 69: 99-113.

[62] Prentice-Dunn S, Rogers RW. Protection motivation theory and preventive health: Beyond the health belief model. Health Education Research, 1986, 1(3): 153-161.

[63] Rogers RWCacioppo JR, Petty RE. Cognitive and physiological processes in fear appeals and attitude change: A revised theory of protection motivation. Social psychology: A sourcebook, 1983New YorkGuilford Press153-176

[64] Rostami-Moez, M., M. Rabiee-Yeganeh, M. Shokouhi, A. Dosti-Irani, and F. Rezapur-Shahkolai. 2020. Earthquake preparedness of households and its predictors based on health belief model. BMC Public Health 20(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-08814-2.

[65] Russell LA, Goltz JD, Bourque LB. Preparedness and hazard mitigation actions before and after two earthquakes. Environment and Behavior, 1995, 27(6): 744-770.

[66] Shapira S, Aharonson-Daniel L, Bar-Dayan Y. Anticipated behavioral response patterns to an earthquake: The role of personal and household characteristics, risk perception, previous experience and preparedness. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2018, 31: 1-8.

[67] Shaw R, Kobayashi KSH, Kobayashi M. Linking experience, education, perception and earthquake preparedness. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 2004, 13(1): 39-49.

[68] Shrestha N. Factor analysis as a tool for survey analysis. American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 2021, 9(1): 4-11.

[69] Soffer Y, Goldberg A, Adini B, Cohen R, Ben-Ezra M, Palgi Y, Essar N, Bar-Dayan Y. The relationship between demographic/educational parameters and perceptions, knowledge and earthquake mitigation in Israel. Disasters, 2011, 35(1): 36-44.

[70] Spittal, M.J. 2003. Demographic and psychological factors and preparedness for earthquakes. Ph.D. thesis. Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand.

[71] Spittal MJ, McClure J, Siegert RJ, Walkey FH. Predictors of two types of earthquake preparedness. Environment and Behavior, 2008, 40: 798-817.

[72] Stratton SJ. Data sampling strategies for disaster and emergency health research. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 2019, 34(3): 227-229.

[73] Tabachnick BG, Fidell LSUsing multivariate statistics, 20136BostonPearson

[74] Tabachnick BG, Fidell LSUsing multivariate statistics, 20146HarlowPearson Education

[75] Tang, J.S., and J.Y. Feng. 2018. Residents’ disaster preparedness after the Meinong Taiwan Earthquake: A test of protection motivation theory. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15(7): Article 1434.

[76] Tasantab, J.C., T. Gajendran, and K. Maund. 2022. Expanding protection motivation theory: The role of coping experience in flood risk adaptation intentions in informal settlements. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 76: Article 103020.

[77] TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute). 2025a. Women in statistics, 2024. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Istatistiklerle-Kadin-2024-54076. Accessed 25 Jul 2025 (in Turkish).

[78] TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute). 2025b. Address-based population registration system results, 2024. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Adrese-Dayali-Nufus-Kayit-Sistemi-Sonuclari-2024-53783. Accessed 25 Jul 2025 (in Turkish).

[79] Usluer FO, Barca O, Karakaya S, Demir F, Bayram Arlı N. Explanation of behavioral intentions to mitigate climate change with protection motivation theory. Journal of Economy Culture and Society, 2023, 68: 85-96

[80] Vrselja I, Pandžić M, Glavaš D. Predicting earthquake preparedness intention among Croatian residents: Application of the theory of planned behaviour. International Journal of Psychology, 2022, 58(2): 124-133.

[81] Wachinger G, Renn O, Begg C, Kuhlicke C. The risk perception paradox—Implications for governance and communication of natural hazards. Risk Analysis, 2012, 33(6): 1049-1065.

[82] Watkins MW. Exploratory factor analysis: A guide to best practice. Journal of Black Psychology, 2018, 44(3): 219-246.

[83] Welton-Mitchell C, James LE, Khanal SN, James AS. An integrated approach to mental health and disaster preparedness: A cluster comparison with earthquake affected communities in Nepal. BMC Psychiatry, 2018.

[84] Westcott R, Ronan K, Bambrick H, Taylor M. Expanding protection motivation theory: Investigating an application to animal owners and emergency responders in bushfire emergencies. BMC Psychology, 2017.

[85] Zaremohzzabieh, Z., A.A. Samah, S. Roslan, H.A.M. Shaffril, J.L. D’Silva, S. Kamarudin, and S. Ahrari. 2021. Household preparedness for future earthquake disaster risk using an extended theory of planned behavior. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 65: Article 102533.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

The Author(s)