Assessing the Drought Vulnerability of Rice in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River from Physical and Social Dimensions

Abstract

The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are key rice-producing regions in China. Conducting vulnerability assessments on rice production is beneficial for reducing agricultural disaster losses and improving China’s disaster prevention and control capabilities. This study used a crop growth model to fit hazard-loss rate curves (HLC) representing crop sensitivity to drought, employed an integrated index method to assess the adaptability and coping capacity, and developed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework from both physical and social vulnerability dimensions. The results suggest that, high adaptability is concentrated in Jiangsu and northern Zhejiang Provinces, while low adaptability is observed in western Hubei, Hunan, and Anhui Provinces. Approximately 25% of the areas exhibit relatively low coping capacity. Sensitivity levels exceeding 0.4 are primarily found in high-altitude regions, with a general trend of lower sensitivity in the north and higher sensitivity in the south. Comprehensive vulnerability is significantly greater south of the Yangtze River compared to the north, with a positive correlation between altitude and comprehensive vulnerability. Implementing targeted countermeasures based on vulnerability assessments can reduce rice losses in the region and ensure food security.

Keywords

Drought / Hazard-loss rate curve / Middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River / Physical vulnerability / Rice production / Social vulnerability

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