A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Method Incorporating Physics-Based Simulation and Ground Motion Prediction Equation

Abstract

The traditional approach to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) relies on ground motion records, which restricts its application in regions with sparse seismic records or low seismicity. Recently, the 3D physics-based simulation (PBS) has been recognized as a more effective tool, which offers the flexibility to generate time histories of simulated ground motions. The PBS methods are essential for obtaining ground motion parameters and compensating for lack of records. In this study, building on the theoretical framework of the China Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (CPSHA) method, we integrated the hierarchical potential focal region model from the fifth-generation seismic ground motion parameters zonation map of China and an appropriate seismicity model reflecting spatial distribution characteristics. Ground motion parameters at the target scale were calculated using PBS for near-field seismic simulations and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for far-field seismic predictions, accounting for the uncertainties in ground motion attenuation from both methods to compute the seismic hazard of each site. In this manner, we established a comprehensive regional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method combining PBS and GMPE. Using Tianjin as a case study, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was conducted with this method, providing seismic hazard curves for specific sites within each administrative region and zoning maps, which were then compared with the results of the fifth-generation zonation maps. The results indicate that the calculated seismic hazard values are generally consistent with the fifth-generation map at the lower limit, while the upper limit is slightly higher due to the near-fault effect.

Keywords

3D physics-based simulation / Ground motion prediction equation / Scenario earthquake / Seismic hazard analysis / Tianjin area

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