Global Climate Change Exacerbates Socioeconomic Drought Severity Across Vegetation Zones During 1901–2018

Abstract

Drought is one of the most complicated natural hazards and is among those that pose the greatest socioeconomic risks. How long-term climate change on a large scale affects different types of drought has not been well understood. This study aimed to enhance comprehension of this critical issue by integrating the run theory for drought identification, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, and partial correlation attribution methods to analyze global drought dynamics in 1901–2018. Methodological innovations include: (1) a standardized drought severity metric enabling cross-typology comparisons; and (2) quantitative separation of precipitation and temperature impacts. Key findings reveal that socioeconomic drought severity exceeded meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts by 350.48%, 47.80%, and 14.40%, respectively. Temporal analysis of Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) trends demonstrated intensification gradients: SPEI24 (− 0.09 slope/100 yr) > SPEI01 (− 0.088/100 yr) > SPEI06 (− 0.087/100 yr) > SPEI12 (− 0.086/100 yr). Climate drivers exhibited distinct patterns, with precipitation showing stronger partial correlations across all drought types (meteorological: 0.78; agricultural: 0.76; hydrological: 0.60; socioeconomic: 0.39) compared to temperature (meteorological: − 0.45; agricultural: − 0.38; hydrological: − 0.27; socioeconomic: − 0.18). These results quantitatively establish a hierarchical climate response gradient among drought types. The framework advances drought typology theory through three original contributions: (1) systematic quantification of cross-typology drought severity disparities; (2) precipitation-temperature influence partitioning across drought types; and (3) identification of socioeconomic drought as the most climate-decoupled yet fastest-intensifying type. This study refined drought typological theories and provides a methodological foundation for climate-resilient drought management planning.

Keywords

Climate change / Drought severity / Global scale / Multi-type drought / Various vegetation zones

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