Enhancing Societal Value of Early Warning Early Action and Anticipatory Action Frameworks Using NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index

Abstract

Given the contemporary increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme anomalous hydromet hazards (droughts, floods, tropical storms, heatwaves), heightened attention of governments, scientists, media, and humanitarian organizations is being given to hydromet early warning systems. The focus of this article is multidisciplinary and multifaceted: it involves connecting an earliest warning indicator associated with the Oceanic Niño Index, one that complements the existing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicator, with early warning early action and anticipatory action approaches for disaster risk reduction (DRR). This new indicator in theory at least could increase the lead time between the release of an official forecast of an El Niño and the first appearance of its adverse impacts, thereby serving as the earliest warning of an event. As such, this DRR research links new usable earliest warning information, providing additional time to initiate tactical actions to cope with El Niño-spawned hydromet hazards. Integrating an earliest indicator of the likely onset of an El Niño into early action frameworks would hasten humanitarian assistance by providing at-risk communities and humanitarian organizations with more time to consider a range of options for responding to El Niño’s impacts.

Keywords

Anticipatory action / Earliest warning / Early warning systems / El Niño / ENSO / Disaster risk reduction

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