A Hybrid Multi-Hazard Susceptibility Assessment Model for a Basin in Elazig Province, Türkiye

Abstract

Preparation of accurate and up-to-date susceptibility maps at the regional scale is mandatory for disaster mitigation, site selection, and planning in areas prone to multiple natural hazards. In this study, we proposed a novel multi-hazard susceptibility assessment approach that combines expert-based and supervised machine learning methods for landslide, flood, and earthquake hazard assessments for a basin in Elazig Province, Türkiye. To produce the landslide susceptibility map, an ensemble machine learning algorithm, random forest, was chosen because of its known performance in similar studies. The modified analytical hierarchical process method was used to produce the flood susceptibility map by using factor scores that were defined specifically for the area in the study. The seismic hazard was assessed using ground motion parameters based on Arias intensity values. The univariate maps were synthesized with a Mamdani fuzzy inference system using membership functions designated by expert. The results show that the random forest provided an overall accuracy of 92.3% for landslide susceptibility mapping. Of the study area, 41.24% were found prone to multi-hazards (probability value > 50%), but the southern parts of the study area are more susceptible. The proposed model is suitable for multi-hazard susceptibility assessment at a regional scale although expert intervention may be required for optimizing the algorithms.

Keywords

Earthquakes / Floods / Fuzzy inference systems / Landslides / Multi-hazard susceptibility assessment / Random forest / Türkiye

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