Decision Support for Integrated Management of Local-Level Adaptation to Climate Changes: The Case of Serbia

Abstract

Projected climate changes will additionally increase the already significant risk of natural hazard-related disasters in Serbia and the west Balkan region as a whole. Serbia is about to introduce the strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, a national decision-support system for implementation of the climate change law and strategy is yet to be developed. This study contributes to the implementation of adaptation policies at subnational levels by development of a decision-support model for local-level management of the climate change adaptation process. The study explores the potential for synergetic application of multicriteria decision making analysis and probabilistic reasoning methods by focusing on Bayesian networks, analytical hierarchy processes, and geographic information systems for selection of priority adaptation measures. The study was based on the formation of causal chains, which enable linking management decisions and socioeconomic or biophysical consequences into articulated sequences of conditional relationships. A model was tested in the forestry sector, and it clearly pointed out development of an early warning system and planning of water intake basins as priority adaptation measures. Since the results are shown as a probability distribution for each alternative solutions, the model can assist decision makers with prompt evaluation of various scenarios.

Keywords

Bayesian networks / Climate change adaptation / Multicriteria decision-making / Serbia / Wildfire risk

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