Assessing Social Vulnerability to Flood Hazards in the Dutch Province of Zeeland

Abstract

The 2007 European Union Floods Directive encouraged member nations to pursue a more integrated view of flood risks and management strategies, taking into account social vulnerabilities of residents. To date, most flood-risk analyses conducted by the Dutch government have focused on physical risk. This study utilizes fine-scale data to construct a social vulnerability index for 147 districts of the Dutch province of Zeeland, located in the Southwestern Delta and the scene of widespread devastation following the 1953 North Sea Flood. Factor analysis of 25 indicators of social vulnerability selected from related research in Europe and the United States results in seven factors explaining roughly 66% of the total variance. These factors of social vulnerability in Zeeland are urban density, low-income households, recent population change, female gender, train access, and self-employed and service-sector employment. The index was constructed using the top-loading variable in each of these factors, with weights determined by the variance explained by each factor. Scores range from a low of 0.20 in Schore, municipality of Kapelle, to the highest score of 0.64 in Oudelandse Hoeve of Terneuzen. The most vulnerable districts are located in South Zeeland, with eight of the 10 found in Terneuzen. The majority of less vulnerable districts are located in Zeeland’s central region.

Keywords

Factor analysis / Flood hazards / Netherlands / Social vulnerability index / Southwest Delta / Zeeland

References

[1] Baker, A. 2009. Creating an empirically derived community resilience index of the Gulf of Mexico region. M.S. thesis. Baton Rouge: Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University.

[2] van den Berg JH, Asselman NEM, Ruessink GG. Flemming BW, Bartholomä A. Hydraulic roughness of tidal channel bedforms, Westerschelde estuary, the Netherlands. Tidal signatures in modern and ancient sediments, 1995, Utrecht: Blackwell 19-32

[3] Beurton, S. and A. Thieken, A. 2012. Key findings of research related to: Flood resilient communities – Managing consequences of flooding. 2nd Crue Funding Initiative on Flood Resilient Communities Synthesis Report. http://temis.documentation.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/docs/Temis/0078/Temis-0078003/20664_synthese.pdf. Accessed 12 Apr 2019.

[4] Birkmann J. Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales: Applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Environmental Hazards, 2006, 7(1): 20-31

[5] Braams N. From self-employed to employed, 2010, The Hague/Heerlen: Statistics Netherlands

[6] Cai H, Lam NSN, Zou L, Qiang Y, Li K. Assessing community resilience to coastal hazards in the lower Mississippi River basin. Water, 2016, 8(2): 46

[7] CBS (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek/Statistics Netherlands). 2015. Explanation of district and neighborhood figures 2012, 2013, and 2014 (Toelichting Wijk—en Buurtkaart 2012, 2013, en 2014). Den Haag: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek. https://www.cbs.nl/-/media/imported/documents/2015/06/2015-toelichting-wijk-en-buurtkaart-2012-2014.pdf?la=nl-nl. Accessed 9 May 2019 (in Dutch).

[8] CBS (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek/Statistics Netherlands), PBL (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), RIVM (Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu/Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment), and WUR (Wageningen University & Research). 2014. Highly educated, 2013 (Hoogopgeleiden, 2013) (indicator 2100, version 05, 18 July 2014). https://www.clo.nl/indicatoren/nl210005-opleidingsniveau-bevolking. Den Haag: CBS; PBL. Wageningen: WUR (in Dutch).

[9] Chen W, Cutter SL, Emrich CT, Shi P. Measuring social vulnerability to natural hazards in the Yangtze River Delta region, China. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2013, 4(4): 169-181

[10] Coninx, I., and K. Bachus. 2007. Integrating social vulnerability to floods in a climate change context. Leuven: Higher Institute for Labour Studies, Catholic University of Leuven. https://www.newater.uni-osnabrueck.de/caiwa/data/papers%20session/D3/Coninx%20and%20Bachus.pdf. Accessed 10 May 2019.

[11] CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters). 2010. EM-DAT. The International Disaster Database. Université catholique. http://emdat.be/. Accessed 17 Oct 2016.

[12] Cutter SL, Finch C. Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2008, 105(7): 301-306

[13] Cutter SL, Boruff BJ, Shirley WL. Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Social Science Quarterly, 2003, 84(2): 242-261

[14] Donner, W., and H. Rodriguez. 2011. Disaster risk and vulnerability: The role and impact of population and society. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau. https://www.prb.org/disaster-risk/. Accessed 12 Apr 2019.

[15] EEA (European Environmental Agency) Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2012: An indicator-based report, 2012, Copenhagen: European Environment Agency

[16] Eurofound (European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions). 2017. The many faces of self-employment in Europe. https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/blog/the-many-faces-of-self-employment-in-europe.pdf. Accessed Oct 2017.

[17] Fekete A. Validation of a social vulnerability index in context to river-floods in Germany. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2009, 9(2): 393-403

[18] Fekete, A. 2010. Assessment of social vulnerability for river-floods in Germany. Doctoral thesis. Bonn: United Nations University–Institute for Environmental and Human Security (UNU-EHS).

[19] Finch C, Emrich CT, Cutter SL. Disaster disparities and differential recovery in New Orleans. Population and Environment, 2010, 31(4): 179-202

[20] Holand IS, Lujala P. Replicating and adapting an index of social vulnerability to a new context: A comparison study for Norway. The Professional Geographer, 2013, 65(2): 312-328

[21] HVRI (Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute). 2019. Social vulnerability index: Frequently asked questions. http://artsandsciences.sc.edu/geog/hvri/faq. Accessed 10 May 2019.

[22] H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment. 2002. Human links to coastal disasters. Washington, DC: The H. John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment.

[23] Lam, N.S.N., M. Reams, K. Li, C. Li, and L.P. Mata. 2016. Measuring community resilience to coastal hazards along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Natural Hazards Review 17(1): Article 04015013.

[24] Perrow C. The next catastrophe, 2007, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press

[25] Reams MA, Lam NSN, Baker A. Measuring capacity for resilience among coastal counties of the U.S. northern Gulf of Mexico region. American Journal of Climate Change, 2012, 1(4): 194-204

[26] Rijkswaterstaat AHN2 TOP10NL, 2014, Delft: Rijkswaterstaat Centrale Informatievoorziening

[27] Schmidtlein MC, Deutsch RC, Piegorsch WW, Cutter SL. A sensitivity analysis of the social vulnerability index. Risk Analysis, 2008, 28(4): 1099-1114

[28] Sherrieb K, Norris FN, Galea S. Measuring capacities for community resilience. Social Indicators Research, 2010, 99(2): 227-247

[29] Stocker T, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, New York: Cambridge University Press

[30] Tapsell, S., S. McCarthy, H. Faulkner, and M. Alexander. 2010. Social vulnerability to natural hazards. State of the art report from CapHaz-Net’s WP4. London: CapHaz-Net Consortium.

[31] Tate E. Uncertainty analysis for a social vulnerability index. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2012, 103(3): 526-543

[32] VNK2 (Veiligheid Nederland in Kaart 2). 2012. Flood risk in the Netherlands. Translated by Sue McDonnell Translation. Utrecht: VNK2 Project Office. https://www.helpdeskwater.nl/publish/pages/131663/vnk-rapport-eng-lr.pdf. Accessed 9 May 2019.