A Damage Scenario for the 2012 Northern Italy Earthquakes and Estimation of the Economic Losses to Residential Buildings

Abstract

In May 2012 a seismic sequence occurred in Northern Italy that was characterized by two main shocks with a magnitude range between 5.5 and 6. These shocks represent a good case study by which to quantify the monetary losses caused by a moderate earthquake in a densely populated and economically well-developed area. The loss estimation accounts for damage to residential buildings, and considers the full effect of all the seismic aftershock events that lasted for nearly a month. The building damage estimation is based on the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-98) definitions, which depict the effects of an earthquake on built-up areas in terms of observed intensities. Input data sources are the residential building census provided by Istituto Nazionale di Statistica—the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)—and the official market value of real estate assets, obtained from the Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare—the Real Estate Market Observatory (OMI). These data make it possible to quantify the economic losses due to earthquakes, an economic indicator updated yearly. The proposed multidisciplinary method takes advantage of seismic, engineering, and economic data sets, and is able to provide a reasonable after the event losses scenario. Data are not gathered for each single building and the intensity values are not a simple hazard indicator, but, notwithstanding its coarseness, this method ensures both robust and reproducible results. As the local property value is available throughout the Italian territory, the present loss assessment can be effortlessly repeated for any area, and may be quickly reproduced in case of future events, or used for predictive economic estimations.

Keywords

Earthquake damage / Economic losses / EMS-98 intensity / Northern Italy / 20 May 2012 earthquake

References

[1] ANIA (Associazione Nazionale fra le Imprese Assicuratrici/National Association of Insurers Companies) and Guy Capenter groups. 2011. Damage due to seismic and flood events on Italian housing: Quantitative study and possibile insurance schemes (Danni da eventi sismici e alluvionali al patrimonio abitativo italiano: studio quantitativo e possibili schemi assicurativi). Report. http://www.ania.it/export/sites/default/it/pubblicazioni/monografie-e-interventi/Danni/Danni-da-eventi-sismici-e-alluvionali.pdf. Accessed 7 Sept 2017 (in Italian).

[2] ATC (Applied Technology Council). 1985. Earthquake damage evaluation. Data for California. Report No. ATC-13. Redwood City, CA, USA.

[3] Bal IE, Crowley H, Pinho R, Gulay FG. Detailed assessment of structural characteristics of Turkish RC building stock for loss assessment models. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2008, 28(10/11): 914-932

[4] Bater CW, Coops NC. Evaluating error associated with LiDAR-derived DEM interpolation. Computers & Geosciences, 2009, 35(2): 289-300

[5] Benedetti D, Petrini V. On seismic vulnerability of masonry buildings: Proposal of an evaluation procedure. L’industria delle Costruzioni, 1984, 18: 66-78 (in Italian)

[6] Bernardini, A., S. Giovinazzi, S. Lagomarsino, and S. Parodi. 2007. The vulnerability assessment of current buildings by a macroseismic approach derived from the EMS-98 scale. The 3rd Congreso National de Ingeniería Sismíca, 8–11 May 2007, Girona. Asociación Española de Ingeniería Sísmica, 704–718.

[7] Bernardini A, Salmaso L, Solari A. Statistical evaluation of vulnerability and expected seismic damage of residential buildings in the Veneto-Friuli area (NE Italy). Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica e Applicata, 2008, 49(3–4): 427-446.

[8] Bevere, L., O. Kuebler, and C. Honegger. 2015. The natural catastrophe protection gap in Italy: Time for action. Swiss Re Ltd. http://www.swissre.com/library/The_natural_catastrophe_protection_gap_in_Italy_time_for_action.html. Accessed 7 Sept 2017.

[9] Burrato P, Vannoli P, Fracassi U, Basili R, Valensise G. Is blind faulting truly invisible? Tectonic-controlled drainage evolution in the epicentral area of the May 2012, Emilia-Romagna earthquake sequence (northern Italy). Annals of Geophysics, 2012, 55(4): 525-531.

[10] Castelli V, Bernardini F, Camassi R, Caracciolo CH, Ercolani E, Postpischl L. Looking for missing earthquakes traces in the Ferrara-Modena plain: An update on historical seismicity. Annals of Geophysics, 2012, 55(4): 519-524.

[11] Centro studi. 2014. The earthquake costs in Italy (I costi dei terremoti in Italia). Roma: Consiglio nazionale ingegneri. http://cache.b.centrostudicni.it/images/pubblicazioni/ricerche/cr470_costi_terremoto_59a5d.pdf. Accessed 7 Sept 2017 (in Italian).

[12] Chay KY, Greenstone M. Does air quality matter? Evidence from the housing market. Journal of Political Economy, 2005, 113(2): 376-424

[13] Cipollotti GB. Criteria for the cost assessment in the real estate appraisal (Il criterio del costo nella stima immobiliare). Aestimum, 2013, 62: 111-127 (in Italian)

[14] Davis, L.W. 2011. The effect of power plants on local housing values and rents. Review of Economics and Statistics 93(4): 1391–1402.

[15] Erdik M, Sesetyan K, Betul Demircioglu M, Hancilar U, Zulfikar C. Garevski M, Ansal A. Rapid earthquake loss assessment after damaging earthquakes. Earthquake engineering in Europe, 2010, Dordrecht: Springer 523-547

[16] FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) Multi-hazard loss estimation methodology, earthquake model HAZUS-MHMR1, advanced engineering building module, technical and user’s manual, 2003, Washington, DC: FEMA

[17] Galli P, Castenetto S, Peronace E. The MCS macroseismic survey of the Emilia 2012 earthquakes. Annals of Geophysics, 2012, 55(4): 663-672.

[18] Giovinazzi, S., and S. Lagomarsino. 2004. Exposure and vulnerability of buildings in the Imperia province (Esposizione e vulnerabilità del costruito in provincia di Imperia). Italian meeting “Rischio sismico, territorio e centri storici”. Sanremo (IM), 2–3 July 2004, ed. S. Lagomarsino, and P. Ugolini, 321–332. Milan: FrancoAngeli (in Italian).

[19] Glaeser EL, Gyourko J. Urban decline and durable housing. Journal of Political Economy, 2005, 113(2): 345-375

[20] Glaeser, E.L., J. Gyourko, and R. Saks. 2005. Why have housing prices gone up? No. w11129. National Bureau of Economic Research. http://www.nber.org/papers/w11129. Accessed 7 Sept 2017.

[21] Grünthal, G. (ed.). 1998. European macroseismic scale 1998 (EMS-98). European Seismological Commission, Sub Commission on Engineering Seismology, Working Group Macroseismic Scales. Conseil de l’Europe, Cahiers du Centre Européen de Géodynamique et de Séismologie 15. Luxembourg.

[22] Gruppo di Lavoro MPS. 2004. Seismic hazard map of the Decree 3274 of 20 March 2003 (Redazione della mappa di pericolosità sismica prevista dall’Ordinanza PCM 3274 del 20 marzo 2003). Rapporto Conclusivo per il Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, INGV, Milano-Roma. http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it. Accessed 7 Sept 2017 (in Italian).

[23] ISTAT (Istituto Nazionale di Statistica/National Institute of Statistics). 1991. The 13th general census on population—Data on population, housing characteristics and economical variables (Censimento generale della popolazione—Dati sulle caratteristiche strutturale della popolazione, delle abitazioni e variabili economiche). http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/104317. Accessed 13 Sept 2017 (in Italian).

[24] Lagomarsino S, Giovinazzi S. Macroseismic and mechanical models for the vulnerability and damage assessment of current buildings. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2006, 4(4): 415-443

[25] Lantada N, Irizarry J, Barbat AH, Goula X, Roca A, Susagna T, Pujades LG. Seismic hazard and risk scenarios for Barcelona, Spain, using the Risk-UE vulnerability index method. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2010, 8(2): 201-229

[26] Liberatore L, Sorrentino L, Liberatore D, Decanini LD. Failure of industrial structures induced by the Emilia (Italy) 2012 earthquakes. Engineering Failure Analysis, 2013, 34: 629-647

[27] Masi A, Santarsiero G, Digrisolo A, Chiauzzi L, Manfredi V. Procedures and experiences in the post-earthquake usability evaluation of ordinary buildings. Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica e Applicata, 2017, 52(2): 119-220.

[28] Meroni F, Pessina V, Bernardini A. Damage risk and scenarios in the Veneto-Friuli area. Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica e Applicata, 2008, 49(3–4): 485-503.

[29] Meroni F, Pessina V, Bernardini A, Valluzzi M, D’Ayala D. Damage scenarios in the Vittorio Veneto town center. Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica e Applicata, 2008, 49(3–4): 505-512.

[30] Meroni, F., V. Pessina, T. Squarcina, M. Locali, R. Zoboli, and M. Modica. 2016. The economic assessment of seismic damage: An example for the 2012 event in northern Italy. International Conference on Urban Risk, Lisbon, 30 June–2 July 2016, 323–330.

[31] Meroni F, Petrini V, Zonno G. Bernardini A. National distribution of the average municipal vulnerability (Distribuzione nazionale della vulnerabilità media comunale). La vulnerabilità degli edifici, 2000, Roma: CNR-GNDT 105-131 (in Italian)

[32] Modica, M., R. Zoboli, F. Meroni, V. Pessina, T. Squarcina, and M. Locati. 2016. Housing market response to 2012 northern Italy earthquake: The role of house quality and changing risk perception. SEEDS, Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies. Working paper 4: 1–26. http://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:srt:wpaper:0416. Accessed 7 Sept 2017.

[33] Montealegre AL, Teresa Lamelas MT, De la Riva J. Interpolation routines assessment in ALS-derived digital elevation models for forestry applications. Remote Sensing, 2015, 7(7): 8631-8654

[34] Mouroux P. RISK-UE—An advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios with applications to different European towns, 2003, European Commission: Final report. Brussels

[35] Mouroux, P., and B. Le Brun. 2006. Risk-Ue project: An advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios with application to different European towns. In Assessing and managing earthquake risk, ed. C.S. Oliveira, A. Roca, and X. Goula, 479–508. Vol. 2. Berlin: Springer.

[36] Mucciarelli M, Liberatore D. Guest editorial: The Emilia 2012 earthquakes. Italy. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2014, 12(5): 2111-2116

[37] Murdoch JC, Singh H, Thayer M. The impact of natural hazards on housing values: The Loma Prieta earthquake. Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 1993, 21(2): 167-184

[38] Musson RMW, Grünthal G, Stucchi M. The comparison of macroseismic intensity scales. Journal of Seismology, 2010, 14(2): 413-428

[39] Naoi M, Seko M, Sumita K. Earthquake risk and housing prices in Japan: Evidence before and after massive earthquakes. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 2009, 39(6): 658-669

[40] Norme Tecniche per le Costruzioni. 2008. Technical standards for construction (Norme tecniche per le costruzioni). Decree of the Minister of the Infrastructures, 14 January 2008, Italian Official Gazette n. 29 of 4 February 2008. http://www.gazzettaufficiale.it/eli/id/2008/02/04/08A00368/sg. Accessed 7 Sept 2017 (in Italian).

[41] OPCM 3274 (Ordinanza del Presidente del Consiglio dei Ministri 3274). 2003. General criteria for the seismic classification of the national territory and technical standards (Primi elementi in materia di criteri generali per la classificazione del territorio nazionale e di normative tecniche). G.U. n. 105 del 08/05/2003. http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it/documenti/gazzetta.pdf. Accessed 7 Sept 2017 (in Italian).

[42] Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare. 2009. Agency of the real estate market database manual (Manuale della banca dati dell’osservatorio del mercato immobiliare). Version 1.3. http://www.agenziaentrate.gov.it/wps/content/Nsilib/Nsi/Documentazione/omi/Manuali+e+guide/. Accessed 2015 (in Italian).

[43] Pessina, V., F. Meroni, T. Squarcina, M. Locati, A. Tertulliani, and I. Leschiutta. 2014. Validation of macroseismic models for the assessment of damage (Validazione di modelli macrosismici per la stima del danneggiamento). The XXXIII Italian Convention Gruppo Nazionale di Geofisica della Terra Solida. Bologna, 25–27 November 2014, ed. D. Slejko et al., 2: 457–463. http://www3.ogs.trieste.it/gngts/files/2014/S23/Riassunti/Pessina.pdf. Accessed 7 Sept 2017 (in Italian).

[44] Regione Emila Romagna. 2017. Earthquake, the reconstruction (Terremoto, la ricostruzione). http://www.regione.emilia-romagna.it/terremoto (in Italian).

[45] Riedel I, Gueguen P, Dalla Mura M, Pathier E, Leduc T, Chanussot J. Seismic vulnerability assessment of urban environments in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions using association rule learning and support vector machine methods. Natural Hazards, 2015, 76(2): 1111-1141

[46] Riedel I, Gueguen P, Dunand F, Cottaz S. Macroscale vulnerability assessment of cities using association rule learning. Seismological Research Letters, 2014, 85(2): 295-305

[47] Roca A, Goula X, Susagna T, Chavez J, Gonzalez M, Reinoso E. A simplified method for vulnerability assessment of dwelling buildings and estimation of damage scenarios in Catalonia. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2006, 4(2): 141-158

[48] Rovida A, Locati M, Camassi R, Lolli B, Gasperini P. CPTI15, the 2015 version of the parametric catalogue of Italian earthquakes. Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, 2016

[49] Sambridge M, Braun J, McQueen H. Geophysical parametrization and interpolation of irregular data using natural neighbours. Geophysical Journal International, 1995, 122(3): 837-857

[50] Scognamiglio L, Margheriti L, Mele FM, Tinti E, Bono A, De Gori P, Lauciani V, Lucente FP, Mandiello AG, Marcocci C, Mazza S, Pintore S, Quintiliani M. The 2012 Pianura Padana Emilianan seismic sequence: Location, moment tensors and magnitudes. Annals of Geophysics, 2012, 55(4): 549-559.

[51] Sieberg A. The earthquake geology (Geologie der Erdbeben). Handbuch der Geophysik, 1930, 2(4): 550-555 (in German)

[52] Spence, R. 2007. Earthquake disaster scenario prediction and loss modelling for urban areas. LessLoss report 7. http://elsa.jrc.ec.europa.eu/events.php?id=4. Accessed 7 Sept 2017.

[53] Syner-G Project. 2012. Systemic seismic vulnerability and risk analysis for buildings, lifeline networks and infrastructures safety gain. European research project funded by FP7. http://www.vce.at/SYNER-G/. Accessed 7 Sept 2017.

[54] Tertulliani A, Arcoraci L, Berardi M, Bernardini F, Brizuela B, Castellano C, Del Mese S, Ercolani E, Graziani L, Maramai A, Rossi A, Sbarra M, Vecchi M. The Emilia 2012 sequence: A macroseismic survey. Annals of Geophysics, 2012, 55(4): 679-687.

[55] UPStrat-MAFA (Urban Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic and FAult Sources). 2012. Urban disaster prevention strategies using macroseismic fields and fault sources. EC project number 230301/2011/613486/SUB/A5), DG ECHO Unit A5. http://upstrat-mafa.ov.ingv.it/UPStrat/. Accessed 7 Sept 2017.

[56] Whitman RV, Anagnos T, Kirker CA, Lagorio HJ, Lawson RS, Schneider P. Development of a national earthquake loss estimation methodology. Earthquake Spectra, 1997, 13(4): 643-661

[57] Zonno G, Oliveira CS, Ferreira MA, Musacchio G, Meroni F, Mota-de-Sá F, Neves F. Assessing seismic damage through stochastic simulation of ground shaking: The case of the 1998 Faial earthquake (Azores Islands). Surveys in Geophysics, 2010, 31(3): 361-381