Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions for Alternate Food to Address Agricultural Catastrophes Globally

Abstract

The literature suggests there is about a 1 % risk per year of a 10 % global agricultural shortfall due to catastrophes such as a large volcanic eruption, a medium asteroid or comet impact, regional nuclear war, abrupt climate change, and extreme weather causing multiple breadbasket failures. This shortfall has an expected mortality of about 500 million people. To prevent such mass starvation, alternate foods can be deployed that utilize stored biomass. This study developed a model with literature values for variables and, where no values existed, used large error bounds to recognize uncertainty. Then Monte Carlo analysis was performed on three interventions: planning, research, and development. The results show that even the upper bound of USD 400 per life saved by these interventions is far lower than what is typically paid to save a life in a less-developed country. Furthermore, every day of delay on the implementation of these interventions costs 100–40,000 expected lives (number of lives saved multiplied by the probability that alternate foods would be required). These interventions plus training would save 1–300 million expected lives. In general, these solutions would reduce the possibility of civilization collapse, could assist in providing food outside of catastrophic situations, and would result in billions of dollars per year of return.

Keywords

Agricultural catastrophe / Alternate food / Global catastrophic risk / Intervention cost-effectiveness

References

[1] Aizen MA, Garibaldi LA, Cunningham SA, Klein AM. How much does agriculture depend on pollinators? Lessons from long-term trends in crop production. Annals of Botany, 2009, 103(9): 1579-1588

[2] Bailey R, Benton TG, Challinor A, Elliott J, Gustafson D, Hiller B, Jones A, Kent A, Lewis K, Meacham T, Rivington M, Tiffin R, Wuebbles D. Extreme weather and resilience of the global food system: Final project report from the UK-US taskforce on extreme weather and global food system resilience, 2015, UK: The Global Food Security Programme

[3] Barrett AM, Baum SD, Hostetler KR. Analyzing and reducing the risks of inadvertent nuclear war between the United States and Russia. Science & Global Security, 2013, 21(2): 106-133

[4] Baum SD, Denkenberger DC, Pearce JM. Alternative foods as a solution to global food supply catastrophes. Solutions, 2016, 7(4): 31-35.

[5] Baum SD, Denkenberger DC, Pearce JM, Robock A, Winkler R. Resilience to global food supply catastrophes. Environment Systems and Decisions, 2015, 35(2): 301-313

[6] Beckstead N. On the overwhelming importance of shaping the far future. Doctoral thesis, 2013, New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University

[7] Bolstad WM. Introduction to bayesian statistics, 2013, Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons

[8] Chrisman L, Henrion M, Morgan R, Arnold B, Brunton F, Esztergar A, Harlan J. Analytica user guide, 2007, Los Gatos, CA: Lumina Decision Systems

[9] Denkenberger DC, Pearce JM. Feeding everyone no matter what: Managing food security after global catastrophe, 2014, London: Academic Press

[10] Denkenberger DC, Pearce JM. Feeding everyone: Solving the food crisis in event of global catastrophes that kill crops or obscure the sun. Futures, 2015, 72(September): 57-68

[11] Do T, Anderson K, Brorsen BW. The world’s wheat supply, 2010, Stillwater, OK: Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service

[12] Earth Policy Institute Rising meat consumption takes big bite out of grain harvest, 2011, New Brunswick, NJ: Earth Policy Institute, Rutgers University

[13] Ehrlich PR, Ehrlich AH. Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 2013, 280: 20122845

[14] Foley JA, Ramankutty N, Brauman KA, Cassidy ES, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Mueller ND Solutions for a cultivated planet. Nature, 2011, 478(7369): 337-342

[15] FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 2005. Biological diversity. Global forest resources assessment 2005. Progress towards sustainable forest management. http://www.fao.org/docrep/008/a0400e/a0400e00.htm. Accessed 21 Aug 2016.

[16] FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 2015. The state of food insecurity in the world. Meeting the 2015 international hunger targets: Taking stock of uneven progress. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4646e/index.html. Accessed 21 Aug 2016.

[17] GiveWell. 2015a. Against Malaria Foundation (AMF). http://www.givewell.org/international/top-charities/amf. Accessed Jul 2015.

[18] GiveWell. 2015b. Your dollar goes further overseas. Giving 101: The basics. http://www.givewell.org/giving101/Your-dollar-goes-further-overseas. Accessed Jul 2015.

[19] Godfray HCJ, Beddington JR, Crute IR, Haddad L, Lawrence D, Muir JF, Pretty J, Robinson S, Thomas SM, Toulmin C. Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 2010, 327(5967): 812-818

[20] Goodhand J. Enduring disorder and persistent poverty: A review of the linkages between war and chronic poverty. World Development, 2003, 31(3): 629-646

[21] Gwatkin DR. How many die? A set of demographic estimates of the annual number of infant and child deaths in the world. American Journal of Public Health, 1980, 70(12): 1286-1289

[22] Helfand, I. 2013. Nuclear famine: Two billion people at risk, 2nd edn. International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. https://www.mapw.org.au/files/downloads/two-billion-at-risk.pdf. Accessed 21 Aug 2016.

[23] Henneberg M. Evolution of the human brain: Is bigger better?. Clinical and Experimental Pharmacology and Physiology, 1998, 25(9): 745-749

[24] Keller EJ. Drought, war, and the politics of famine in Ethiopia and Eritrea. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 1992, 30(4): 609-624

[25] Keramat M, Kielbasa R. Becerra JJ, Friedman EG. Latin hypercube sampling Monte Carlo estimation of average quality index for integrated circuits. Analog design issues in digital VLSI circuits and systems, 1997, New York: Springer 131-142

[26] Kim K-Y, Chung H-J. Flavor compounds of pine sprout tea and pine needle tea. Journal of Agriculture and Food Chemistry, 2000, 48(4): 1269-1272

[27] Langan P, Gnanakaran S, Rector KD, Pawley N, Fox DT, Cho DW, Hammel KE. Exploring new strategies for cellulosic biofuels production. Energy & Environmental Science, 2011, 4: 3820-3833

[28] Lazzaro, J. 2013. Bengal famine of 1943—A man-made holocaust. International Business Times, 22 February 2013.

[29] Loftas T, Ross J. Dimensions of need: An atlas of food and agriculture, 1995, Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

[30] Mason B, Pyle D, Oppenheimer C. The size and frequency of the largest explosive eruptions on earth. Bulletin of Volcanology, 2004, 66(8): 735-748

[31] Meadows DH, Randers J, Meadows DL. Limits to growth: The 30 year update, 2004, White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green Publishing Company

[32] Miller TR. Variations between countries in values of statistical life. Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 2000, 34(2): 169-188.

[33] Morgan MG, Henrion M. Uncertainty: A guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis, 1990, New York: Cambridge University Press

[34] Myers RH, Montgomery DC, Anderson-Cook CM. Response surface methodology: Process and product optimization using designed experiments, 2009 3 Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons

[35] Napier W. Bostrom N, Cirkovic MM. Hazards from comets and asteroids. Global catastrophic risks, 2008, New York: Oxford University Press 222-237.

[36] Oerke EC. Crop losses to pests. The Journal of Agriculture Science, 2006, 144(1): 31-43

[37] Özdoğan M, Robock A, Kucharik CJ. Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on soybean and maize production in the Midwest United States. Climatic Change, 2013, 116(2): 373-387

[38] Pearce JM, Denkenberger D, Zielonka H. Accelerating applied sustainability by utilizing return on investment for energy conservation measures. International Journal of Energy, Environment and Economics, 2009, 17(1): 61-80.

[39] Rampino MR. Bostrom N, Cirkovic MM. Super-volcanism and other geophysical processes of catastrophic import. Global catastrophic risks, 2008, New York: Oxford University Press 205-221.

[40] Robinson LA. How US government agencies value mortality risk reductions. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2007, 1(2): 283-299

[41] Rosen J. Thinking the unthinkable. Science, 2016, 353(6296): 232-237

[42] Spinosa R. Fungi and sustainability. Fungi, 2008, 1(1): 38-43.

[43] Turco RP, Toon OB, Ackerman TP, Pollack IB, Sagan C. Climate and smoke: An appraisal of nuclear winter. Science, 1990, 247: 166-176

[44] Unibio. 2014. What is uniprotein^®? http://www.unibio.dk/?page_id=47. Accessed Jul 2015.

[45] UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Emergency Fund) The state of the world’s children, 2006, New York: United Nations Children’s Fund

[46] Valdes P. Built for stability. Nature Geoscience, 2011, 4(7): 414-416

[47] Von Braun J, Teklu T, Webb P. Famine in Africa: Causes, responses, and prevention, 1999, Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute

[48] Waldman RJ. Public health in times of war and famine: What can be done? What should be done?. JAMA The Journal of the American Medical Association, 2001, 286(5): 588-590