Modeling the Adverse Impact of Rainstorms on a Regional Transport Network

Abstract

Cities are centers of socioeconomic activities, and transport networks carry cargoes and passengers from one city to another. However, transport networks are influenced by meteorological hazards, such as rainstorms, hurricanes, and fog. Adverse weather impacts can easily spread over a network. Existing models evaluating such impacts usually neglect the transdisciplinary nature of approaches for dealing with this problem. In this article, a mesoscopic mathematical model is proposed to quantitatively assess the adverse impact of rainstorms on a regional transport network in northern China by measuring the reduction in traffic volume. The model considers four factors: direct and secondary impacts of rainstorms, interdependency between network components, and recovery abilities of cities. We selected the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the case study area to verify our model. Socioeconomic, precipitation, and traffic volume data in this area were used for model calibration and validation. The case study highlights the potential of the proposed model for rapid disaster loss assessment and risk reduction planning.

Keywords

China / Disaster loss assessment / Mathematical modeling / Rainstorm hazards / Recovery / Transport networks

References

[1] Amin M. Toward self-healing infrastructure systems. Computer, 2000, 33(8): 44-53

[2] Attoh-Okine NO, Cooper AT, Mensah S. Formulation of resilience index of urban infrastructure using belief functions. Systems Journal, 2009, 3(2): 147-153

[3] Baidu Map. n.d. http://map.baidu.com. Accessed 6 Mar 2015.

[4] Bloomfield, R., L. Buzna, P. Popov, K. Salako, and D. Wright. 2009. Stochastic modelling of the effects of interdependencies between critical infrastructures. Proceedings of the 4th international workshop, critical information infrastructures security, 30 September–2 October 2009, Bonn, 201–212.

[5] Buzna L, Peters K, Helbing D. Modelling the dynamics of disaster spreading in networks. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2006, 363(1): 132-140

[6] Camacho FJ, García A, Belda E. Analysis of impact of adverse weather on freeway free-flow speed in Spain. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2010, 2169(1): 150-159

[7] Chang SE, McDaniels TL, Mikawoz J, Peterson K. Infrastructure failure interdependencies in extreme events: Power outage consequences in the 1998 ice storm. Natural Hazards, 2007, 41(2): 337-358

[8] Chang SE, McDaniels T, Fox J, Dhariwal R, Longstaff H. Toward disaster-resilient cities: Characterizing resilience of infrastructure systems with expert judgments. Risk Analysis, 2014, 34(3): 416-434

[9] China News. n.d. News communication: 21 July storm caused economic losses of 11.64 billion yuan in Beijing. http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2012/07-25/4058908.shtml. Accessed 6 Mar 2015 (in Chinese).

[10] Chung Y. Assessment of non-recurrent congestion caused by precipitation using archived weather and traffic flow data. Transport Policy, 2012, 19(1): 167-173

[11] Chung, E., O. Ohtani, H. Warita, M. Kuwahara, and H. Morita. 2006. Does weather affect highway capacity. In Proceedings of the symposium on highway capacity, Yokohama. http://its.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/pdf/5th%20ISHC%20Yokohama%202006%20Chung.pdf. Accessed 6 Mar 2015.

[12] Dehman A. Effect of inclement weather on two capacity flows at recurring freeway bottlenecks. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2012, 2286(1): 84-93

[13] Godschalk DR. Urban hazard mitigation: Creating resilient cities. Natural Hazards Review, 2003, 4(3): 136-143

[14] Guo C, Xiao H, Yang H, Tang Q. Observation and modeling analyses of the macro-and microphysical characteristics of a heavy rain storm in Beijing. Atmospheric Research, 2015, 156: 125-141

[15] Henry D, Ramirez-Marquez JE. Generic metrics and quantitative approaches for system resilience as a function of time. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2012, 99: 114-122

[16] Hoel LA, Garber NJ, Sadek AW. Transportation infrastructure engineering: A multimodal integration, 2007, Chicago: Thomson Nelson

[17] Jiang X, Yuan H, Xue M, Chen X, Tan X. Analysis of a heavy rainfall event over Beijing during 21–22 July 2012 based on high resolution model analyses and forecasts. Journal of Meteorological Research, 2014, 28: 199-212

[18] Johansson J, Hassel H. An approach for modelling interdependent infrastructures in the context of vulnerability analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2010, 95(12): 1335-1344

[19] Munson BR, Young D, Okiishi TH. Fundamentals of fluid mechanics, 2006 5 New York: Wiley

[20] National Bureau of Statistics of China. n.d. National data. http://data.stats.gov.cn/. Accessed 6 Mar 2015 (in Chinese).

[21] Rahmstorf S, Coumou D. Increase of extreme events in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2011, 108(44): 17905-17909

[22] Rinaldi SM, Peerenboom JP, Kelly TK. Identifying, understanding, and analyzing critical infrastructure interdependencies. Control Systems, 2001, 21(6): 11-25

[23] Saberi, M., and R.L. Bertini. 2010. Empirical analysis of the effects of rain on measured freeway traffic parameters. 89th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC. http://trid.trb.org/view.aspx?id=910448. Accessed 6 Mar 2015.

[24] Santos JR, Herrera LC, Yu KDS, Pagsuyoin SAT, Tan RR. State of the art in risk analysis of workforce criticality influencing disaster preparedness for interdependent systems. Risk Analysis, 2014, 34(6): 1056-1068

[25] Smith, B.L., K.G. Byrne, R.B. Copperman, S.M. Hennessy, and N.J. Goodall. 2004. An investigation into the impact of rainfall on freeway traffic flow. 83rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC. http://people.virginia.edu/~njg2q/TRB_2004.pdf. Accessed 6 Mar 2015.

[26] Su B, Huang H, Li Y. Integrated simulation method for waterlogging and traffic congestion under urban rainstorms. Natural Hazards, 2016, 81(1): 23-40

[27] Weng, J., L. Liu, and J. Rong. 2013. Impacts of snowy weather conditions on expressway traffic flow characteristics. Discrete dynamics in nature and society 2013. Article 791743.

[28] World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 2011. WMO statement on the status of the global climate in 2010. WMO-No. 1074. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/statement/documents/1074_en.pdf. Accessed 6 Mar 2015.

[29] Yang SN, Ye JY, Zhang XC, Liu H. Study of the impact of rainfall on freeway traffic flow in Southeast China. International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 2012, 8(2/3): 230-241