Shades of Chaos: Lessons Learned About Lessons Learned About Forecasting El Niño and Its Impacts

Abstract

The troubled forecast of El Niño’s onset in 2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet reflects two different perceptions about what transpired. The forecast community suggests they got it right, while the popular media suggests forecasters got it wrong. Why such a gap? The major El Niño that was alluded to by several organizations did not materialize when or even as expected. A science-fed media frenzy took place about an event considered in retrospect to have been an unusual borderline (weak) El Niño event, “trickiest ever to forecast.” That is understandable, as the science of El Niño is still on a learning curve. But it suggests that the forecasting of El Niño’s onset is still in an experimental phase and not yet operational. Forecasting its onset (as a specific event) should be separated from forecasting its behavior and impacts (as a process) once the onset has been assured. Whenever a forecast is made, someone is responding to it. Therefore, such a distinction is necessary for the benefit of those societies and economic sectors affected by El Niño.

Keywords

2014 El Niño forecast / El Niño / ENSO / Experimental forecast / Oscillations / Teleconnections

References

[1] Barnston AG, He Y, Glantz MH. Predictive skill of statistical and dynamical climate models in SST forecasts during the 1997–98 El Niño episode and the 1998 La Niña onset. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1999, 80(2): 217-243

[2] Barnston AG, Leetmaa A, Kousky VE, Livezey RE, O’Lenic E, Van den Dool H, Wagner AJ, Unger DA. NCEP forecasts of the El Niño of 1997–98 and its US impacts. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1999, 80(9): 1829-1852

[3] Bjerknes J. A possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature. Tellus, 1966, 18(4): 820-829

[4] Bjerknes J. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 1969, 97(3): 163-172.

[5] FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). n.d. Total production of Peruvian anchoveta (E. ringens) in the Southeast Pacific (Area 87) and “El Niño” years since 1950. http://www.fao.org/NEWS/GLOBAL/IMG/anchov-e.gif. Accessed 21 Feb 2015.

[6] Glantz MH. Forecasting El Niño: Science’s gift to the 21st century. Ecodecision, 1994, 12: 78-81.

[7] Glantz MH. Once burned twice shy: Lessons learned from the 1997–98 El Niño, 2001, Tokyo: United Nations University Press

[8] Hall, M. 2011. Are you a poet or a mathematician? http://www.agilegeoscience.com/blog/2011/10/13/are-you-a-poet-or-a-mathematician.html?rq=probability. Accessed 22 Feb 2015.

[9] Hendon HH, Salby ML. The life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 1994, 51(15): 2225-2237

[10] International Research Institute, Columbia University and NOAA Climate Prediction Center. 2014. IRI ENSO forecast. 2014 October quick look. http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-October-quick-look. Accessed 22 Feb 2015.

[11] L’Heureux, M. 2015. Were model predictions of El Niño a Big Bust? http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/were-model-predictions-el-niño-big-bust. Accessed 22 Feb 2015.

[12] Merriam-Webster. n.d. Merriam-Webster.com. Web. 23 Oct 2014. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/chaos. Accessed 20 Jan 2015.

[13] Mehta, V. 2004. Decadal climate variability: Societal impacts, phenomena, problems and prospects. Unpublished PowerPoint document. Presented at the SORCE Science Team meeting, Meredith, New Hampshire, 27–29 October. http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2004ScienceMeeting/SORCE WORKSHOP 2004/SESSION_3/3_0_Mehta.pdf. Accessed 21 Feb 2015.

[14] Miller, C. 2014. El Niño fizzle: No relief likely for California drought. http://blogs.kqed.org/science/2014/08/07/el-nino-fizzle-no-relief-likely-for-california-drought/. Accessed 21 Feb 2014.

[15] NASA Science News. 2014. El Niño: Is 2014 the new 1997? http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19may_elnino/. Accessed 22 Feb 2015.

[16] National Weather Service, U.S.A. n.d. Weather impacts of ENSO. http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/yos/resource/JetStream/tropics/enso_impacts.htm. Accessed 21 Feb 2015.

[17] Queensland Government, Australia. n.d. What factors contribute to floods? http://www.chiefscientist.qld.gov.au/publications/understanding-floods/what-factors-contribute. Accessed 21 Feb 2015.

[18] Thompson, A. 2014. Waiting for El Niño. Still. Again. http://www.climatecentral.org/news/still-waiting-for-el-nino-18286. Accessed 22 Feb 2015.

[19] The Hindu. 2014. Strongest in 15 years, 2014 El Niño could hit India hard. 12 Jun 2014. http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/strongest-in-15-years-2014-el-nio-could-hit-india-hard/article6107952.ece. Accessed 20 Jan 2015.

[20] The Watchers. 2014. Super strong El Niño in 2014? http://thewatchers.adorraeli.com/2014/05/22/super-strong-el-Niño-2014/. Accessed 22 Feb 2015.