Background
A new phase of global green and low-carbon development was initiated with the Paris Agreement in 2015 [
1]. China’s international responsibility toward addressing climate change is consistent with its own sustainable development needs.
In December 2015,195 countries unanimously adopted the Paris Agreement at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP21), setting institutional conditions for a global response to climate change after 2020. The Paris Agreement is a legally binding agreement under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and marks a new starting point for global action to address climate change, as well as the beginning of a new phase of global green and low-carbon development [
2].
The Paris Agreement further clarifies the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), which seeks to control future global temperature increases by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of the CBDR-RC is to limit the increase in temperature to 2°C, relative to pre-Industrial Revolution values, and to strive for an increase of 1.5°C. A further aim is to balance human activities, greenhouse gas emissions and absorption sinks, with the aim to achieve zero emissions, or as near as possible, by the second half of the century. Reductions after 2020 will be based on the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) submitted by each country. From 2023 onward, the progress made by each country to reduce emissions as per their INDC will be evaluated every five years. The CBDR-RC principle is embodied in factors such as mitigation, adaptation, capital, technology, and capacity building. From 2020, developed countries will collectively contribute USD 100 billion per year to support developing countries in their efforts to manage climate change; from 2025, this contribution will increase. All countries will use a “bottom-up” evaluation mechanism to reinforce action and cooperation. Realizing these goals will require low-carbon economic transformation, an economic and low-carbon win-win situation, sustainable development, and control over global climate change via an energy revolution.
China’s global responsibility toward tackling climate change is highly consistent with the inherent sustainable development needs of the country. In line with this responsibility, four low-carbon development goals were proposed by China in a joint statement on climate change issued by China and the United States in November 2014, and in the INDC it submitted to the United Nations in 2015. The four goals are: ① China’s total carbon dioxide emissions must peak by 2030, however the country must strive to reach this peak as soon as possible; ② carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP in 2030 must be 60%–65% less than it was in 2005; ③ the proportion of non-fossil fuel based energy in primary energy consumption must be about 20% by 2030; and ④ the volume of forest must increase by 4.5 billion cubic meters by 2030, relative to the volume in 2005. Based on these goals, China promulgated a series of top-level design documents, including the 13th Five-Year Plan. The Control of Greenhouse Gas Emissions program in the 13th Five-Year Plan clearly defines future emission reduction targets. These aims demonstrate both positive and pragmatic participation by China in tackling global climate change, which is a practical implementation of the Paris Agreement. In addition, China is seeking to construct an ecological civilization and promote an energy revolution.
The goals and focus of the Paris Agreement have resulted from increased innovation and development, which represent an international competition to achieve green, low-carbon production and living. For this to be achieved, and for China to succeed, an energy revolution is needed, thus ensuring that China strives to take the initiative and not fall behind other countries.
An important question in light of the Paris Agreement is “can low-carbon development lead to modernization”? Analysis of energy economics data for developed countries published by the World Bank (Fig. 1) shows there are two types of developed countries: those with high levels of energy consumption and carbon emissions (e.g., the United States and Canada), and those with relatively low levels of energy consumption and carbon emissions (e.g., Japan and Europe) [
3]. In light of high and low levels of energy consumption, there are four key points which China must take into account in regard to development: ① China cannot follow the high-energy consumption and high emission model of countries such as the United States; ② even achieving the average energy consumption levels of developed countries will result in China being a quasi-United States, with higher levels of energy consumption and carbon emissions than Europe and Japan; ③ while countries such as Japan and those in Europe have demonstrated a relatively low-carbon development model, successfully implementing this model will result in the 2010 total energy consumption levels of China doubling; ④ and in order to achieve a new type of industrialization, and thus a subsequent advantage, China needs to demonstrate better energy and carbon efficiency levels than Japan and countries in Europe.
As shown by countries undertaking low-carbon development, high-carbon development is not the only route to modernization (Fig. 1). A linear extrapolation of the development path undertaken by China in the first decade of this century will result in unsustainable and an unacceptably high-carbon inertia scenario (black line in Fig. 1). Therefore, it is important that the development path taken by China must change; the green dotted line in Fig. 1 shows a projected developmental scenario for China based on the INDC presented to the United Nations in 2015.
China’s energy revolution
The essence of China’s energy revolution is a low-carbon transformation [
4]. Changes to the energy structure will progress through three stages, based on the source of energy: fossil fuel energy, multisource energy, and non-fossil fuel energy.
Energy savings and improving efficiency is the primary goal of China’s energy strategy
China’s energy consumption per unit of GDP in 2015 was 1.5 times greater than the world average, and several times greater than that of developed countries. Improving efficiency through multiple channels requires, among other aspects, adjusting the industrial structure, inhibiting unreasonable demand, accelerating technological progress, improving energy efficiency standards, and improving management. These changes will enable “the double control of total energy amount and intensity.” The current situation of low energy efficiency and high energy intensity must be significantly improved in order to achieve the reductions in energy and carbon intensity specified in the national INDC. Total energy consumption in 2020 must be below 4.8 billion tons of standard coal and 5.5 billion tons by 2030; consumption in 2015 was 4.3 billion tons of standard coal. There must also be a gradual reduction in energy elasticity, and the annual growth rate of energy consumption in 2030 should be below 1%.
Gradual reduction of coal
The total annual consumption of coal in China has declined for the last three consecutive years, which has decoupled economic growth and the growth in coal consumption. This decline is not only a natural result of the new economic normal, new energy normal and industrial restructuring, it is also a part of the requirement to improve air quality and to mitigate air pollution. The proportion of coal used in primary energy production in China must decline below 50% by 2030.
The replacement of scattered coal burning techniques is an important necessity and major requirement for the high carbon-based form of energy used in China. The combination of geographical resources and local conditions is important to successfully utilize alternative energy sources, for example gas, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, nuclear or heat from industrial waste. With the adjustment of the industrial structure and improvements in energy efficiency, industrial coal production will steadily decline. Coal power generation is an important method for using coal in a clean, efficient and centralized way; currently there is overcapacity in China’s coal power installations thus new installations are not required and should be prevented. Current coal-fired power plants need to be made more flexible, have high-quality installations for peak performance, and support the use of wind, solar and other sources of renewable energy, thereby gradually changing their role from power generation to service and raw materials. The innovation of carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) should also be explored; if CO2 emissions do not decline, the aim of “ultra-low emissions” will not be achieved.
Active development of high-quality non-fossil fuel energy
The proportion of non-fossil fuel energy in China’s primary energy sources must attain 15% by 2020, and it must be considerably greater than 20% by 2030. Achieving this goal requires developing renewable energy (e.g., water, wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, ocean, refuse energy utilization, etc.), combining concentrated and scattered use, and developing distributed energy. In addition, the following three obstacles need to be overcome in order to implement a high proportion of renewable energy: ① lower cost: the cost of wind power in 2020 should be comparable to that of coal-generated electricity, and photovoltaic power generation should achieve user-side parity; ② energy storage: innovative and large-scale implementations of physical storage (e.g., pumped hydropower storage, using compressed air storage), chemical storage (e.g., using air lithium batteries, graphene batteries), and heat storage need to be achieved; and ③ peak usage: peak activities need to be managed with the help of thermal power, and peak electricity production should also be used for the electrolysis of water to produce hydrogen, sea water desalination, heat storage, etc.
Nuclear power is a stable, low-carbon, high-energy density form of non-fossil fuel energy, although safety is critical in coastal and inland areas to achieve steady progress. Legal, institutional and operational mechanisms should be improved to promote basic research on nuclear energy and to strengthen the organization of the overall industry.
Stabilizing oil and increasing utilization of gas
Improving oil and gas (including unconventional and deep-sea) exploration, encouraging the replacement of oil with electricity, and the use of biomass gas are important. Equally important are continued development of small, low-carbon electric vehicles, improving fuel standards, and achieving intelligent optimization of the number and types of cars and roads. By improving use and efficiency of oil, it is aimed that annual consumption should peak by 2025–2030.
Natural gas (including unconventional natural gas, coal bed methane, tight gas, shale gas and natural gas hydrate) is a relatively low-carbon fossil fuel energy. Current aims are to increase its portion of primary energy in China from 6% in 2015 to 10% by 2020, and then to about 15% by 2030. Natural gas is important, as it will play an important role in the transition to low-carbon energy use in China.
The proportion of low-carbon energy including renewables, nuclear energy, and natural gas in China’s primary energy is predicted in Table 1.
Development of a smart energy network
The adaptability of the electricity power system to renewable energy is the key to a low-carbon energy system. China’s energy network is characterized by three characteristics and two combinations. The three characteristics are: electrification (to increase the proportion of electricity in the terminal energy), low carbonation (to increase the proportion of non-fossil fuel energy), and intelligence (a deep integration with information technology and digital technology). The first combination is that of a centralized smart grid (top-down) and a distributed low-carbon energy network (bottom-up). The second combination is the optimized combination of horizontal complementary multi-energy and vertical source-network-load-storage-use. These characteristics and combinations can be used to create an energy efficient, low-carbon, safe, intelligent energy network that works over the internet, including a smart grid, distributed energy network, water network, natural gas network, heating (cooling) network, and a meteorological network.
The increment in demand for energy created by new urbanization and agricultural modernization processes should be met by the low-carbon energy network. The progress of energy in rural areas is an important implication of the energy revolution and national modernization.
It has been forecast (Fig. 2) that changing China’s energy structure will gradually produce a transition into a low-carbon system. The three stages in the transition of the global primary energy structure, based on the source of energy, are coal, coal to oil and gas, and oil and gas to non-fossil fuel energy; this transition will result in the global energy structure moving from the oil and gas stage to the non-fossil fuel stage. The transformation of China’s primary energy structure will go through the same three stages, except the fact that the second stage is termed the multi-source stage, which includes coal, oil, gas, renewable energy and nuclear energy. If the criterion for entering the multi-source stage is set at non-fossil fuel energy accounting for more than 10% of total energy, this was achieved by China in 2015. After that, through the decade’s increase of non-fossil energy and decrease of high-carbon energy, China will enter the non-fossil energy dominated stage. In April 2017, the “Energy Production and Consumption Revolutionary Strategy (2016–2030)” proposed that, by 2050, the proportion of non-fossil fuel energy consumption will account for half of all energy consumed, with further growth in natural gas consumption. In this case, the proportion of coal consumption in China’s will reduce to less than 30% [
5].
China’s low-carbon transition
China’s low-carbon transition is a long-term ambition that will be difficult, but the direction and path are clear. There is, however, a need to redefine the concept in order to follow the route of low-carbon development.
The transition to green and low-carbon energy is a global strategy addressing climate change, and it is a common orientation for sustainable development in all countries. The recent withdrawal from the Paris Agreement by the United States may affect the joint action (including low-carbon energy transformation) of a global response to climate change. However, importantly, climate change science is the cornerstone of climate change action, which means that green and low-carbon energy transformation is an objective demand for global sustainable development. This is a trend that cannot be changed.
A common question is “will a low-carbon transformation affect economic development”? Raising such questions indicates the strong inertia of the high-carbon option. High-carbon energy is easy to obtain, with the growth of high-carbon, low-end industries being short and fast, and there are precedents set by countries such as the United States in the international community. As a result, it is commonly believed that the high-carbon route is the only way to realize modernization.
However, Fig. 1 shows that Europe and Japan demonstrated a relatively low-carbon development path. In China, different scenarios regarding carbon use exist. For example, the adjustment of the industrial and energy structure in the Pearl River Delta is relatively early; an economic and environmental win-win scenario is being achieved. In contrast, the economic growth in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and in other regions heavily relies on investment in high energy-consuming industries, leading to significant overcapacity and a compressed and complex structural environmental pollution problem. In areas of high energy consumption, pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions exceed environmental capacity, showing a nonlinear trend. The lessons that have been learnt in China and abroad can be summarized as “change the development mode without delay,” with both the economy and the environment benefiting from such a change. Since the 18th Congress of the Communist Party of China, the government has repeatedly and clearly defined “green,” “low-carbon,” and “recycling” development paths, noting “it is our choice to manage climate change, not the choice of others who want us to do so.” This is a profound summary of the development path, and it is the guideline to the country’s actions.
The transformation from the traditional development model to a low-carbon development will inevitably impose constraints on high-carbon energy and high energy-consuming industries, which will inevitably slow down the growth of that part of GDP based on these industries. On the other hand, low-carbon development will promote new low-carbon energy, as well as new industries and services, optimize the industry and employment structure, facilitate the development of low-carbon transport and low-carbon buildings, cultivate new economic growth and new energy, and improve the country’s innovation and competitiveness [
6]. Such progress is the only way to avoid falling into the “middle income trap,” and to make the change from the new normal to new development. Reaching peak greenhouse gas emissions by as early as 2030 should be China’s medium-term strategy and focus for low-carbon development [
7]. This will play a synergistic role in managing haze pollution and in reducing carbon emissions. Furthermore, studies have shown that it should be possible to reach this peak by about 2025.
At the same time, as a response to climate change, strategies should be implemented to increase the carbon sink, reduce emissions, improve the urban and rural infrastructure, promote climate change science, and improve the capacity for scientific and technological innovation [
8]. Such actions will lead to a healthy and smooth development in China. Low-carbon development will also promote low-carbon living, and a sign of social progress will be reflected by efficient and economical practices. Thus, society in China needs to advocate a lifestyle of “healthy material consumption, and a rich pursuit of spirit,” rather than focusing on luxury items; fundamental low-carbon development will inevitably result in a low-carbon society. At the cellular level, the overall aim is to realize low-carbon communities, low-carbon enterprises, low-carbon villages and towns, and even low-carbon families. This will not only have a direct positive impact on the construction of beautiful cities and rural villages, it will significantly improve the quality of life and the level of civilization, which are fundamental to China’s being one of the world’s culturally advanced nations.
Promoting low-carbon development through an energy revolution is a long-term and difficult process, but the direction and path is clear. The government, enterprises and people need to work together to practice the “five development concepts” of innovation, coordination, green-tech, open-mindedness and mutual-sharing, thus creating a new path of sustainable development in China and contributing to the continued global advancement.
Prof. Xiangwan Du, born on Apr. 29, 1938 in Nanyang, Henan Province, is specialized in applied nuclear physics, laser technology and energy research.
Prof. Du graduated from Moscow Engineering Physics Institute of the Soviet Union in 1964. He was vice president of the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE), research fellow and senior scientific advisor of China Academy of Engineering Physics (CAEP). He was in charge of systematic research on diagnostic theory of nuclear tests and neutron physics of nuclear weapon. He served as a chief scientist in China’s new power laser research and drove China’s several new types of power laser technologies such as chemical oxygen-iodine laser to reach the world’s most advanced levels. He has been director of the committee of experts in the field of advanced defense technology of the 863 Program since 2001.
Prof. Du was elected the member of CAE in 1997 and foreign member of Russia Academy of Engineering Science in 2006. He has been vice president of CAE since 2002 and has played a leading role in the consulting work on China’s energy development strategy such as Research on China 2020 Renewable Energy Development Strategy, Research on China Energy Medium and Long Term (2030, 2050) Development Strategy and Re-consideration of Nuclear Energy Development, etc. He is currently the deputy head, National Energy Expert Advisory Committee.
Prof. Du has participated in addressing climate change. He has been in charge of the study of scientific and technologic issues concerning addressing climate change. He is currently chairman of the National Expert Committee of Climate Change. He was advisor of Chinese Delegation to COP UNFCCC at Copenhagen, Durban, Doha, Cancun, Warsaw and Paris where he elaborated on efforts China needs to make in carbon intensity reduction and presented China’s determination inactive commitment and achievement of goals in terms of energy.
Prof. Du was honored with one top prize, one first prize and two second prizes of the National Award for Science and Technology Progress and dozens of ministry- and commission-level first and second prizes. He won the Ho Leung Ho Lee Science & Technology Progress Award in 2000.
Higher Education Press and Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature
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