Evaluation of ecological capability and land use planning for different uses of land with a new model of EMOLUP in Jahrom County, Iran

Abstract

Land use planning is one of the basic principles of sustainable development in a region and in a country. The main objective of this paper is to test a new model of land use planning in order to evaluate ecological suitability and prioritize different land uses in Jahrom County placed in Fars Province, Iran. Hence two main steps were prepared for the new model of Eco-Socio-economic Model of Land Use Planning (EMOLUP). Step 1 includes ecological capability evaluation of different land uses including forest, rangeland, agriculture, conservation, and development. This step is composed of the geometric mean method instead of the Boolean method; and step 2 includes land use planning and prioritizing for the various uses mentioned above. This step is composed of intersecting ecological capability maps and land use planning, based on two scenarios (economic and social). It was compared with qualitative and current quantitative methods. Also, current land use is employed for calibrating and modifying the models. The results of ecological suitability evaluation showed that the EMOLUP model has more accuracy in the process of comparison than other current methods. Accordingly, revised method using the geometric mean (with overall accuracy > 72 and kappa index > 0.55 for all land uses and rangeland with overall accuracy = 32 and kappa index = 0.02) is better than Boolean models, and the method of the calibrated geometric mean (with overall accuracy > 87 and kappa index > 0.73 for all land uses) is the best among different used models. It should be noted that the arithmetic mean has the lowest accuracy (with overall accuracy < 45 and kappa index < 0.24 for all land uses). Also, the results of prioritizing and land use planning showed that the quantitative method with two socio-economic scenarios (result based on average of EPM erosion model = 0.3 that means 30% of modification in whole study area land uses) is the best method for land use planning in the study area.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

EMOLUP Model / geomean / Boolean / prioritizing / land use / capability

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