Analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns and propagation characteristics of drought risk in China

Abstract

Based on standardized precipitation index data, a systematic analysis was conducted of the spatiotemporal variations of drought events in China from 1978 to 2018. Drought events were identified using the run theory applied to the standardized precipitation index data set, and key variables such as drought frequency, duration, and intensity were quantified. Additionally, drought vulnerability, exposure, and resilience were calculated to comprehensively assess the regional drought risk. The spatiotemporal transmission characteristics and pathways of drought risk were further explored using the Markov chain model and its extended version based on spatial lag theory. The results revealed significant differences in the spatial and temporal distribution of drought events across China, with north-west China experiencing a particularly high frequency, duration, and intensity of droughts. Overall, the pattern of drought risk presented a gradient, being higher in the north-west and lower in the south-east. The risk was relatively stable from year to year, with few large fluctuations. Moreover, a strong spatial similarity in drought risk was observed among neighboring provinces, but there was no obvious spatial lag effect. This study provides a valuable scientific foundation for effective drought disaster risk management and the formulation of response measures.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

standardized precipitation index / drought risk / Markov chain / risk propagation

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