Quantitative attribution of Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past 2000 years

Abstract

Quantitative assessment of natural internal variability and externally forced responses of Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperatures is necessary for understanding and attributing climate change signals during past warm and cold periods. However, it remains a challenge to distinguish the robust internally generated variability from the observed variability. Here, large-ensemble (70 member) simulations, Energy Balance Model simulation, temperature ensemble reconstruction, and three dominant external forcings (volcanic, solar, and greenhouse gas) were combined to estimate the internal variability of NH summer (June–August) temperatures over the past 2000 years (1–2000 CE). Results indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly was predominantly attributed to centennial-scale internal oscillation, accounting for an estimated 104% of the warming anomaly. In contrast, the Current Warm Period is influenced mainly by external forcing, contributing up to 90% of the warming anomaly. Internal temperature variability offsets cooling by volcanic eruptions during the Late Antique Little Ice Age. These findings have important implications for the attribution of past climate variability and improvement of future climate projections.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

Common Era / Internal variability / Dark Ages Cold Period / Medieval Climate Anomaly / Current Warm Period

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Acknowledgments

We thank Qiuzhen Yin, Qing Yan, and Wenmin Man for help with the discussion. This work was jointly funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41888101 and 42077406), the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. XDB26020000), and the Key Research Program of the Institute of Geology & Geophysics, CAS (No. IGGCAS-201905). Feng Shi is funded by the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS.

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