Spatial statistical analysis of earthquakes in the Fethiye - Burdur fault zone

Abstract

Turkey is located in the Alpine-Himalayan seismic zone. The Anatolian plate has witnessed very severe and destructive earthquakes both in the past and today. In this study, statistical analyses of earthquakes that occurred between 1914 and 2019 along the Fethiye-Burdur fault zone, which is an active line, were conducted using geographic information systems. Analyses of standard distance, standard deviational eclipse, mean center, and median center were conducted to determine the geographic distributions of epicenters with a magnitude value of 3.5 and above. Quadrat and Average Nearest Neighbor analyses were used to reveal the spatial pattern. Anselin Local Moran I and Getis Ord Gi* method were used to determining where the earthquake epicenters are clustered locally. Kernel Density analyses were conducted to measure earthquake epicenters’ density. Quadrat analysis, Average Nearest Neighbor, Global Moran’s I, and Getis - Ord General G indices demonstrated that earthquakes are clustered in certain regions and are related to each other positionally. Anselin Moran’s I regional analyses revealed that high values were clustered in the West of Burdur city center and the district of Yeşilova, and similar results were obtained in the Getis Ord Gi* method.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

earthquake / Geographic Information Systems / spatial analysis / Fethiye-Burdur fault zone / Turkey

References

[1] AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Authority) (2018). Disaster management and natural disasters statistics in Turkey (in Turkish)

[2] Affan M, Syukri M, Wahyuna L, Sofyan H (2016). Spatial statistics analysis of earthquakes in Aceh Province Year 1921–2014: cluster seismicity.Aceh Int J Sci Technol (Banda Aceh), 5(2): 54–62

[3] AkyurekO, ArslanO (2018). Spatial statistical analysis of historical earthquakes (1900–2016) in Kocaeli Province and its surroundings. J Genomics, 3(1): 48–62 (in Turkish)

[4] Al-Ahmadi K, Al-Amri A, See L (2014). A spatial statistical analysis of the occurrence of earthquakes along the Red Sea floor spreading: clusters of seismicity.Arab J Geosci, 7(7): 2893–2904

[5] Ammon C J, Lay T, Simpson D W (2010). Great earthquakes and global seismic networks.Seismol Res Lett, 81(6): 965–971

[6] Anselin L (1995). Local indicators of spatial association-LISA.Geogr Anal, 27(2): 93–115

[7] ArslanR (2017). 1957 Fethiye earthquake and effects on region. International Periodical for the Languages, Literature, and History of Turkish or Turkic, 12(35): 33–47 (in Turkish)

[8] AtabeyE (2000). Earthquake. General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration Training Series, 1–71 (in Turkish)

[9] AydayC, YamanN, GocmezA (2015). Contributions to Eskisehir Province earthquake risk analysis with earthquake center data between 1900–2015. TUFUAB VIII. Technical Symposium Konya, 71–76

[10] BakakO (2016). The spatial evaluation of 2005 Sığacık Gulf (İzmir) earthquakes. Bulletin of the Earth Sciences Application and Research Centre of Hacettepe University, 37(1): 51–63 (in Turkish)

[11] Barka A, Reilinger R, Şaroglu F, Şengor A M C (1997). The Isparta Angle: Its importance in the neotectonics of the Eastern Mediterranean region. International Earth Sciences Colloquium on the Aegean Region (IESCA-1995).Proc Natl Acad Sci, 1: 3–17

[12] BeringD (1971). Lithostratigraphy, development and maritime history of the Neogene and Quaternary intramontane basins of the Pisidian lake region. Supplements to the Geological Yearbook,101. Hannover: Eren Publications (in German)

[13] Beyhan G, Keskinsezer A (2016). Investigation of the gravity data from Fethiye–Burdur fault zone using the Euler deconvolution technique.Geomechanics Geophysics Geo-Energy Geo-Resources, 2(3): 195–201

[14] BozcuM, Yagmurlu F, SenturkM (2007). Some neotectonic and paleosismological features of the Fethiye-Burdur Fault zone, SW Anatolia. J Geol Eng, 31(1): 25–48 (in Turkish)

[15] Bufe C G, Perkins D M (2005). Evidence for a global seismic-moment release sequence.Bull Seismol Soc Am, 95(3): 833–843

[16] DaneseM, Lazzari M, MurganteB (2008). Kernel density estimation methods for a geostatistical approach in seismic risk analysis: The case study of Potenza Hilltop Town (Southern Italy). International Conference on Computational Science and Its Applications Perugia, Italy: Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 415–429

[17] ErdoganS (2010). GIS applications in epidemiology: A comparison of spatial clustering methods-example of Meningococcal. Electron J Math Technol, 2(2): 23–31 (in Turkish)

[18] Getis A, Ord J (1992). The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics.Geogr Anal, 24(3): 189–206

[19] Hall J, Aksu A E, Elitez I, Yaltırak C, Cifci G (2014). The Fethiye-Burdur fault zone: A component of upper plate extension of the subduction transform edge propagator fault linking Hellenic and Cyprus Arcs, Eastern Mediterranean.Tectonophysics, 685: 80–99

[20] İlciV (2013). Determination of traffic hotspots using spatial statistical methods: Case study Afyonkarahisar-Konya. Afyon Kocatepe University Graduate School of Natural and Applied Science, 1–108

[21] Kagan Y Y, Jackson D D (1991). Seismic gap hypothesis ten years after.J Geophys Res, 96(B13): 21419–21431

[22] KaramanM E (1986). Seismicity of settlement areas in and around Burdur Province. Bulletin of Turkish National Committee of Engineering Geology, 23–30 (in Turkish)

[23] KaramanM E (1990). Basic geological characteristics of southern Isparta. Geological Bulletin of Turkey, 33: 57–67 (in Turkish)

[24] KasapR, GurlenU (2003). Obtaining the return period of earthquake magnitudes: As an example Marmara Region. Doguş University Journal, 4(2): 157–166 (in Turkish)

[25] KoçyigitA (1983). Tectonics of the Hoyran Lake (Isparta Bend) region. Bulletin of the Geological Society of Turkey, 26: 1–10 (in Turkish)

[26] Koukouvelas I, Aydın A (2002). Fault structure and related basins of the North Aegean Sea and its surroundings.Tectonics, 21(5): 1–17

[27] LeeJ, WongD W (2001). Statistical Analysis with Arcview GIS. Canada: John Wiley & Sons Inc

[28] McClusky S, Balassanian S, Barka A, Demir C, Ergintav S, Georgiev I, Gurkan O, Hamburger M, Hurst K, Kahle H, Kastens K, Kekelidze G, King R, Kotzev V, Lenk O, Mahmoud S, Mishin A, Nadariya M, Ouzounis A, Paradissis D, Peter Y, Prilepin M, Reilinger R, Sanli I, Seeger H, Tealeb A, Toksöz M N, Veis G (2000). Global positioning system constraints on plate kinematics and dynamics in the eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus.J Geophys Res, 105(B3): 5695–5719

[29] McKenzie D (1978). Active tectonics of the Alpine-Himalayan belt: The Aegean Sea and surrounding regions.Geophys J Int, 55(1): 217–254

[30] MitchellA (2005). The ESRI Guide to GIS Analysis, Spatial Measurements, and Statistics. Redlands California: ESRI Press

[31] Ord J, Getis A (1995). Local spatial autocorrelation statistics: distributional issues and an application.Geogr Anal, 27(4): 286–306

[32] OzataM (2009). Burdur History from Antiquity to the War of Independence. İzmir: Umay Press,1–262 (in Turkish)

[33] OzyıldıranG (2015). Reconstruction after 1971 Burdur earthquake. International Burdur Earthquake & Environment Symposium (IBEES). Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Burdur, 311–321 (in Turkish)

[34] Price S, Scott B (1994). Fault-block rotations at the edge of a zone of continental extension; southwest Turkey.J Struct Geol, 16(3): 381–392

[35] SenturkM (2003). Seismotectonic features of the region between Acıgöl and Burdur Lakes. Isparta Master Thesis Süleyman Demirel University Institute of Science, 1–83 (in Turkish)

[36] SezerC (2014). Ottoman Red Crescent Association’s Aid in 1914 Isparta-Burdur Earthquake. J Suleyman Demirel University Institute Social Sci, 1(19): 17–34 (in Turkish)

[37] SilvermanB (1986). Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. London: Chapman & Hall, 1–175

[38] Stein R S, Barka A A, Dieterich J H (1997). Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering.Geophys J Int, 128(3): 594–604

[39] TagılS, Alevkayalı Ç (2013). Earthquake spatial distribution in the Egean Region, Turkey: The Geostatistical approach. J Intern Social Res, 6(28): 369–379 (in Turkish)

[40] TanO, Tapırdamaz M C, YorukA (2008). The earthquake catalogues for Turkey. Turk J Earth Sci, 17(2): 405–418 (in Turkish)

[41] Taymaz T, Price S (1992). The 1971 May 12 Burdur earthquake sequence, SW Turkey: A synthesis of seismological and geological observations.Geophys J Int, 108(2): 589–603

[42] Tiryakioglu İ, Floyd M, Erdogan S, Gulal E, Ergintav S, McClusky S, Reilinger R (2013). GPS constraints on active deformation in the Isparta Angle region of SW Turkey.Geophys J Int, 195(3): 1455–1463

[43] UCLEA (2012). Turkey’s Earthquake Fact and the Chamber of Mechanical Engineers Chamber᾽s Recommendations. Chamber of Mechanical Engineers, Ankara. Press No: MMO, 587: 1–78 (in Turkish)

[44] Woo G (1996). Kernel estimation methods for seismic hazard area source modeling.Bull Seismol Soc Am, 86(2): 353–362

[45] YagmurluF (2000). Seismotectonic features of the Burdur fault. Seismicity of Western Anatolia Symposium İzmir: Izmir governorship, 143–152 (in Turkish)

[46] YılmazY (2000). Active tectonics of the Aegean Region. In: Seismicity Symposium of Western Anatolia, Proceedings Book, 3–14

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

2024 Higher Education Press

审图号：GS京（2024）1973号