Tree ring derived summer temperature variability over the past millennium in the western Himalayas of northern Pakistan

Abstract

Long-term high resolution climate proxies are essential for understanding climate variability particularly, in regions such as the western Himalayas of northern Pakistan, where few long-term climate records are available. Using standard dendrochronological methods, an 1132-year (882 to 2013 C.E.) tree-ring chronology of Juniperus excelsa M. Bieb was established from the western Himalayas, northern Pakistan (WHNP). Tree growth was negatively and significantly (r = −0.65) correlated with the growing season (June–July) mean temperature, and positively and weakly (r = 0.22) associated with precipitation. This inverse relationship of tree radial growth with temperature and positive association with precipitation demonstrated that forest growth is sensitive to high temperature related drought. Utilizing a reliable STD chronology and robust reconstruction model, a 928-year (1086 to 2013 C.E.) mean temperature reconstruction was developed for the WHNP using the substantial negative correlation between the summer temperature and standard tree ring-width chronology. According to statistical validation, the reconstruction accounted for 41.6% of the climatic variation for the period of 1956–2013 C.E. instrumental period. Individual extreme-warm periods occurred in 1093 C.E. (29.42°C) and extreme cold periods in 1088 C.E. (26.99°C) observed during the past 928 years. The reconstruction's multi-taper method (MTM) spectral analysis reveals significant (p < 0.05) 2–3-year and 63.8-year cycles. Since the 2–3-year cycle occurred within the range of ENSO variation, which indicates that ENSO had an impact on the regional temperature in our studied area.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

tree rings / Juniperus excelsa / dendrochronology / reconstruction / western Himalaya

References

[1] Ahmed K, Shahid S, Nawaz N (2018). Impacts of climate variability and change on seasonal drought characteristics of Pakistan.Atmos Res, 214: 364–374

[2] Ahmed M, Palmer J, Khan N, Wahab M, Fenwick P, Esper J, Cook E (2011). The dendroclimatic potential of conifers from northern Pakistan.Dendrochronologia, 29(2): 77–88

[3] Asad F, Zhu H, Zhang H, Liang E, Muhammad S, Farhan S B, Hussain I, Wazir M A, Ahmed M, Esper J (2017). Are Karakoram temperatures out of phase compared to hemispheric trends?.Clim Dyn, 48(9–10): 3381–3390

[4] Bhattacharyya A, Shah S K, Chaudhary V (2006). Would tree ring data of Betula utilis be potential for the analysis of Himalayan glacial fluctuations?.Curr Sci, 91(6): 754–761

[5] Bishop M P, Shroder J F Jr, Bonk R, Olsenholler J (2002). Geomorphic change in high mountains: a western Himalayan perspective.Global Planet Change, 32(4): 311–329

[6] Bolch T, Kulkarni A, Kääb A, Huggel C, Paul F, Cogley J G, Frey H, Kargel J S, Fujita K, Scheel M, Bajracharya S, Stoffel M (2012). The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers.Science, 336(6079): 310–314

[7] Borgaonkar H, Sabin T, Krishnan R (2020). Deciphering climate variability over western Himalaya using instrumental and tree-ring records. In: Himalayan Weather and Climate and their Impact on the Environment. New York: Springer, 205–238

[8] Chen F, Opała-Owczarek M, Khan A, Zhang H, Owczarek P, Chen Y, Ahmed M, Chen F (2021). Late twentieth century rapid increase in high Asian seasonal snow and glacier-derived streamflow tracked by tree rings of the upper Indus River basin.Environ Res Lett, 16(9): 094055

[9] Chhetri P (2008). Dendrochronological analyses and climate change perceptions in Langtang National Park, Central Nepal.Climate Change Disaster Impact Reduction, 28: 36–40

[10] Cogley J G (2012). Himalayan glaciers in the balance.Nature, 488(7412): 468–469

[11] Cook E R (1985). A Time Series Analysis Approach to Tree Ring Standardization (Dendrochronology, Forestry, Dendroclimatology, Autoregressive Process). Dissertation for Doctoral Degree. Tucson: The University of Arizona

[12] Cook E R, Kairiukstis L A (1990). Methods of dendrochronology: applications in the environmental sciences. Springer Science & Business Media

[13] Cook E R, Krusic P J, Jones , P D (2003). Dendroclimatic signals in long tree-ring chronologies from the Himalayas of Nepal.Intern J Climatol: J Royal Meteorol Soc, 23: 707–732

[14] Cook E R, Meko D M, Stahle D W, Cleaveland M K (1999). Drought reconstructions for the continental United States.J Clim, 12(4): 1145–1162

[15] Cook E, Briffa K (1990). Data analysis. In: Cook E R, Kairiukstis L A, eds. Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 97–162

[16] Dawadi B, Liang E, Tian L, Devkota L P, Yao T (2013). Pre-monsoon precipitation signal in tree rings of timberline Betula utilis in the central Himalayas.Quat Int, 283: 72–77

[17] Esper J (2000). Long-term tree-ring variations in Juniperus at the upper timber-line in the Karakorum (Pakistan).Holocene, 10(2): 253–260

[18] Esper J, Frank D C, Wilson R J, Büntgen U, Treydte K (2007). Uniform growth trends among central Asian low-and high-elevation juniper tree sites.Trees (Berl), 21(2): 141–150

[19] Esper J, Schweingruber F H, Winiger M (2002). 1300 years of climatic history for Western Central Asia inferred from tree-rings.Holocene, 12(3): 267–277

[20] Fowler H, Archer D (2006). Conflicting signals of climatic change in the Upper Indus Basin.J Clim, 19(17): 4276–4293

[21] Fritts H (1976). Tree Rings and Climate. New York: Academic Press

[22] Gaire N P, Fan Z X, Shah S K, Thapa U K, Rokaya M B (2020). Tree-ring record of winter temperature from Humla, Karnali, in central Himalaya: a 229 years-long perspective for recent warming trend. Geogr Ann, Ser A, 102(3): 297–316 10.1080/04353676.2020.1751446

[23] Hewitt K (2002). Styles of rock-avalanche depositional complexes conditioned by very rugged terrain, Karakoram Himalaya, Pakistan.Rev Eng Geol, 15: 345–377

[24] Holmes R (1983). Computer assisted quality control.Tree-Ring Bull, 43: 69–78

[25] Huang J G, Zhang Q B (2007). Tree rings and climate for the last 680 years in Wulan area of northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.Clim Change, 80(3–4): 369–377

[26] Huang R, Zhu H, Liang E, Asad F, Grießinger J (2019a). A tree-ring–based summer (June–July) minimum temperature reconstruction for the western Kunlun Mountains since AD 1681.Theor Appl Climatol, 138(1–2): 673–682

[27] Huang R, Zhu H, Liang E, Bräuning A, Zhong L, Xu C, Feng X, Asad F, Sigdel S R, Li L, Grießinger J (2022). Contribution of winter precipitation to tree growth persists until the late growing season in the Karakoram of northern Pakistan.J Hydrol (Amst), 607: 127513

[28] Huang R, Zhu H, Liang E, Liu B, Shi J, Zhang R, Yuan Y, Grießinger J (2019b). A tree ring-based winter temperature reconstruction for the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since 1340 CE.Clim Dyn, 53(5–6): 3221–3233

[29] Immerzeel W W, Droogers P, De Jong S, Bierkens M (2009). Large-scale monitoring of snow cover and runoff simulation in Himalayan river basins using remote sensing.Remote Sens Environ, 113(1): 40–49

[30] Kamp U, Owen L A (2011). Late Quaternary glaciation of northern Pakistan. In: Ehlers J, Gibbard P L, Hughes P D, eds. Quaternary Glaciations- Extent and Chronology. Develop Quat Sci, vol. 15. Elsevier, 909–927

[31] Kargel J S, Cogley J G, Leonard G J, Haritashya U, Byers A (2011). Himalayan glaciers: the big picture is a montage.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 108(36): 14709–14710

[32] Keyimu M, Li Z, Liu G, Fu B, Fan Z, Wang X, Wu X, Zhang Y, Halik U (2021). Tree-ring based minimum temperature reconstruction on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.Quat Sci Rev, 251: 106712

[33] Khan A, Ahmed M, Gaire N P, Iqbal J, Siddiqui M F, Khan A, Shah M, Hazrat A, Saqib N U, Mashwani W K, Shah S, Bhandari S (2021). Tree-ring-based temperature reconstruction from the western Himalayan region in northern Pakistan since 1705 CE.Arab J Geosci, 14(12): 1122

[34] Khan A, Chen F, Ahmed M, Zafar M U (2020). Rainfall reconstruction for the Karakoram region in Pakistan since 1540 CE reveals out-of-phase relationship in rainfall between the southern and northern slopes of the Hindukush-Karakorum-Western Himalaya region.Int J Climatol, 40(1): 52–62

[35] Kumar P, Kotlarski S, Moseley C, Sieck K, Frey H, Stoffel M, Jacob D (2015). Response of Karakoram-Himalayan glaciers to climate variability and climatic change: a regional climate model assessment.Geophys Res Lett, 42(6): 1818–1825

[36] Liang E, Dawadi B, Pederson N, Eckstein D (2014). Is the growth of birch at the upper timberline in the Himalayas limited by moisture or by temperature?.Ecology, 95(9): 2453–2465

[37] Liang E, Shao X, Qin N (2008). Tree-ring based summer temperature reconstruction for the source region of the Yangtze River on the Tibetan Plateau.Global Planet Change, 61(3–4): 313–320

[38] Liang E, Shao X, Xu Y (2009). Tree-ring evidence of recent abnormal warming on the southeast Tibetan Plateau.Theor Appl Climatol, 98(1–2): 9–18

[39] Liang H, Lyu L, Wahab M (2016). A 382-year reconstruction of August mean minimum temperature from tree-ring maximum latewood density on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, China.Dendrochronologia, 37: 1–8

[40] Lv L X, Zhang Q B (2013). Tree-ring based summer minimum temperature reconstruction for the southern edge of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China.Clim Res, 56(2): 91–101

[41] Mazzarella A (2007). The 60-year solar modulation of global air temperature: the Earth’s rotation and atmospheric circulation connection.Theor Appl Climatol, 88(3–4): 193–199

[42] Opała M, Niedźwiedź T, Rahmonov O, Owczarek P, Małarzewski Ł (2017). Towards improving the Central Asian dendrochronological network—new data from Tajikistan, Pamir-Alay.Dendrochronologia, 41: 10–23

[43] Opała-Owczarek M, Niedźwiedź T, Rahmonov O, Owczarek P (2017). Millennia-long dendroclimatic records from the Pamir-Alay Mountains (Tajikistan)–perspectives and limitations. In: Wistuba M, Cedro A, Malik L, Helle G, Gärtner H, eds. TRACE–Tree Rings in Archaeology, Climatology and Ecology, Vol. 15. Scientific Technical Report 17/04. GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, 31–38

[44] Sabin T, Krishnan R, Vellore R, Priya P, Borgaonkar H, Singh B B, Sagar A (2020). Climate change over the Himalayas. In: Krishnan R, Sanjay J, Gnanaseelan C, Mujumdar M, Kulkarni S, Chakraborty S, eds. Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region. New York: Springer, 207–222

[45] Sarangzai A M, Ahmed M, Ahmed A, Tareen L, Jan S U (2012). The ecology and dynamics of Juniperus excelsa forest in Balochistan-Pakistan.Pak J Bot, 44: 1617–1625

[46] Shekhar M, Bhardwaj A, Singh S, Ranhotra P S, Bhattacharyya A, Pal A K, Roy I, Martín-Torres F J, Zorzano M P (2017). Himalayan glaciers experienced significant mass loss during later phases of little ice age.Sci Rep, 7(1): 10305

[47] Tao Q, Zhang Q B, Chen X (2021). Tree-ring reconstructed diurnal temperature range on the eastern Tibetan plateau and its linkage to El Niño-Southern Oscillation.Int J Climatol, 41(3): 1696–1711

[48] Treydte K S, Schleser G H, Helle G, Frank D C, Winiger M, Haug G H, Esper J (2006). The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium.Nature, 440(7088): 1179–1182

[49] Wigley T M, Briffa K R, Jones P D (1984). On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology.J Clim Appl Meteorol, 23(2): 201–213

[50] Yang X, Yao T, Deji , Zhao H, Xu B (2018). Possible ENSO influences on the northwestern Tibetan Plateau revealed by annually resolved ice core records.J Geophys Res Atmos, 123(8): 3857–3870

[51] Yu D P, Gu H Y, Wang J D, Wang Q L, Dai L M (2005). Relationships of climate change and tree ring of Betula ermanii tree line forest in Changbai Mountain.J For Res, 16(3): 187–192

[52] Zafar M U, Ahmed M, Rao M P, Buckley B M, Khan N, Wahab M, Palmer J (2016). Karakorum temperature out of phase with hemispheric trends for the past five centuries.Clim Dyn, 46(5–6): 1943–1952

[53] Zhang F, Thapa S, Immerzeel W, Zhang H, Lutz A (2019). Water availability on the Third Pole: a review.Water Secur, 7: 100033

[54] Zhu H F, Shao X M, Yin Z Y, Xu P, Xu Y, Tian H (2011). August temperature variability in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau since AD 1385 inferred from tree rings.Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol, 305(1–4): 84–92

[55] Zhu H, Huang R, Asad F, Liang E, Bräuning A, Zhang X, Dawadi B, Man W, Grießinger J (2021). Unexpected climate variability inferred from a 380-year tree-ring earlywood oxygen isotope record in the Karakoram, Northern Pakistan.Clim Dyn, 57(3–4): 701–715

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

Higher Education Press