Tree ring derived summer temperature variability over the past millennium in the western Himalayas of northern Pakistan

Abstract

Long-term high resolution climate proxies are essential for understanding climate variability particularly, in regions such as the western Himalayas of northern Pakistan, where few long-term climate records are available. Using standard dendrochronological methods, an 1132-year (882 to 2013 C.E.) tree-ring chronology of Juniperus excelsa M. Bieb was established from the western Himalayas, northern Pakistan (WHNP). Tree growth was negatively and significantly (r = −0.65) correlated with the growing season (June–July) mean temperature, and positively and weakly (r = 0.22) associated with precipitation. This inverse relationship of tree radial growth with temperature and positive association with precipitation demonstrated that forest growth is sensitive to high temperature related drought. Utilizing a reliable STD chronology and robust reconstruction model, a 928-year (1086 to 2013 C.E.) mean temperature reconstruction was developed for the WHNP using the substantial negative correlation between the summer temperature and standard tree ring-width chronology. According to statistical validation, the reconstruction accounted for 41.6% of the climatic variation for the period of 1956–2013 C.E. instrumental period. Individual extreme-warm periods occurred in 1093 C.E. (29.42°C) and extreme cold periods in 1088 C.E. (26.99°C) observed during the past 928 years. The reconstruction's multi-taper method (MTM) spectral analysis reveals significant (p < 0.05) 2–3-year and 63.8-year cycles. Since the 2–3-year cycle occurred within the range of ENSO variation, which indicates that ENSO had an impact on the regional temperature in our studied area.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

tree rings / Juniperus excelsa / dendrochronology / reconstruction / western Himalaya

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Muhammad Zafar and Adam Khan, who kindly provided their reconstruction data for comparison. We also thank the Pakistan Metrological Department for providing the station data. A special acknowledgment should be expressed to China-Pakistan joint research center of earth sciences that supported the implementation of this study. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42007407), the Sino-German mobility program (M-0393) and the China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences (No. 131551KYSB20200022).

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

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