Changes of tropical cyclone size in three oceanic basins of the northern hemisphere from 2001 to 2021

Abstract

In this study the changes of tropical cyclone (TC) size from 2001 to 2021 are analyzed based on linear and quadratic curve fittings of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) / Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data, based on the radius of maximum wind (RMW) and the average radius of 34-kt wind (AR34), in three oceanic basins of the North Atlantic (NATL), the Western North Pacific (WPAC) and the Eastern North Pacific (EPAC). The computations are done separately for two categories of tropical cyclones: tropical storms (TS) and hurricanes (HT). Size changes of landfalling and non-landfalling TCs are also discussed. Results show that there is a great inter-basin variability among the changes in TC sizes. Major conclusions include: 1) overall, the inner cores of TSs have become larger in all three basins, with the increasing tendencies being significant in the NATL and WAPC, while those of HTs mostly get smaller or remain similar; 2) meanwhile, comparatively large inter-basin differences are observed for the TC outer core sizes, and the sizes of landfalling TCs; 3) particularly, a significant decrease in landfalling HT outer core size is observed over the EPAC; 4) in contrast, significant increases in landfalling TS inner core size are found over the NATL and WPAC. The presented analysis results could benefit future research about TC forecasts, storm surge studies, and the cyclone climate and its changes.

Graphical abstract

Keywords

tropical cyclone / storm size / frequency / intensity / duration

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Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the Guangdong Province Introduction of Innovative R&D Team Project China (No. 2019ZT08G669), the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (No. 2020A1515110275), the Guangdong Science and Technology Key Project (No. 21080208). We would also like to thank the HWRF team of NOAA/NCEP/EMC for making this study possible.

Competing Interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

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