Global precipitation change during the Holocene: a combination of records and simulations

Abstract

Precipitation can shape our climate both in the present and the future. Even though we have made significant advances in studying the mechanisms of millennial-scale climate changes through high-resolution records, we still cannot quantitatively characterize the global spatiotemporal precipitation variations within the Holocene. Therefore, we developed a new approach to integrating data from 349 globally distributed records and climate models to reconstruct regional and global precipitation patterns over the last 12000 years. Our results reveal that precipitation reconstructions can be divided into monsoon-driven and westerly driven patterns. The results suggest that an arid climate was experienced in the late glacial and early Holocene epoch (~12−7.4 cal ka BP), attaining a middle Holocene optimum (~7.4−3.5 cal ka BP), and drier after the middle Holocene. According to our reconstructions, the global precipitation reconstruction increased from the early Holocene until 3.8 cal ka BP and then subsequently decreased. In addition, our reconstructions better reproduce the low-frequency events and extreme precipitation at the millennial scale in the hemispheres, but the performance of the reconstructions in the equatorial Pacific and the Southern Hemisphere of Africa and the Americas is controversial. The resolution of the record and the simulation capability of the climate model remain important means to improve our understanding of past climate change.

Graphical abstract

References

[1] Abram N J, Mcgregor H V, Tierney J E, Evans M N, Mckay N P, Kaufman D S, Thirumalai K, Martrat B, Goosse H, Phipps S J, Steig E J, Kilbourne K H, Saenger C P, Zinke J, Leduc G, Addison J A, Mortyn P G, Seidenkrantz M, Sicre M, Selvaraj K, Filipsson H L, Neukom R, Gergis J, Curran M A J, Gunten L V (2016). Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents.Nature, 536(7617): 411–418

[2] Adam O, Schneider T, Enzel Y, Quade J (2019). Both differential and equatorial heating contributed to African monsoon variations during the mid-Holocene.Earth Planet Sci Lett, 522: 20–29

[3] An C B, Chen F H, Barton L (2008). Holocene environmental changes in Mongolia: a review.Global Planet Change, 63(4): 283–289

[4] Asmerom Y, Polyak V J, Burns S J (2010). Variable winter moisture in the southwestern United States linked to rapid glacial climate shifts.Nat Geosci, 3(2): 114–117

[5] Ault T R, Cole J E, Overpeck J T, Pederson G T, Meko D M (2014). Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data.J Clim, 27(20): 7529–7549

[6] Bar-Matthews M, Ayalon A, Gilmour M, Matthews A, Hawkesworth CJ (2003). Sea-land oxygen isotopic relationships from planktonic foraminifera and speleothems in the Eastern Mediterranean region and their implication for paleorainfall during interglacial intervals. Geochim Cosmochim Acta, 67(17): 3181–3199

[7] Berke M A, Johnson T C, Werne J P, Grice K, Schouten S, Damste J (2012). Molecular records of climate variability and vegetation response since the Late Pleistocene in the Lake Victoria basin, East Africa.Quat Sci Rev, 55: 59–74

[8] Boch R, Spötl C, Kramers J (2009). High-resolution isotope records of early Holocene rapid climate change from two coeval stalagmites of Katerloch Cave, Austria. Quat Sci Rev, 28(23):2527–2538

[9] BonnefilleR, ChalieF (2000). Pollen-inferred precipitation time-series from equatorial mountains, Africa, the last 40 kyr BP. Global Planet Change, 26(1–3): 25–50

[10] Bouchette F, Schuster M, Ghienne J F, Denamiel C, Roquin C, Moussa A, Marsaleix P, Duringer P (2010). Hydrodynamics in Holocene Lake Mega-Chad.Quat Res, 73(2): 226–236

[11] Cai Y, Tan L, Cheng H, An Z, Edwards R L, Kelly M J, Kong X, Wang X (2010). The variation of summer monsoon precipitation in central China since the last deglaciation.Earth Planet Sci Lett, 291(1–4): 21–31

[12] ChenF H, ChenJ H, HolmesJ, Boomer I, AustinP, GatesJ B, WangN L, BrooksS J, Zhang J W (2010). Moisture changes over the last millennium in arid central Asia: a review, synthesis and comparison with monsoon region. Quat Sci Rev, 29(7–8): 1055–1068

[13] Chen F H, Cheng B, Zhao Y, Zhu Y, Madsen D B (2006). Holocene environmental change inferred from a high-resolution pollen record, Lake Zhuyeze, arid China.Holocene, 16(5): 675–684

[14] ChenF H, YuZ C, YangM L, Ito E, WangS M, MadsenD B, HuangX Z, ZhaoY, Sato T, BirksH J B, BoomerI, ChenJ H, AnC B, Wünnemann B (2008). Holocene moisture evolution in arid central Asia and its out-of-phase relationship with Asian monsoon history. Quat Sci Rev, 27(3–4): 351–364

[15] Chen F, Chen J, Huang W, Chen S, Huang X, Jin L, Jia J, Zhang X, An C, Zhang J, Zhao Y, Yu Z, Zhang R, Liu J, Zhou A, Feng S (2019). Westerlies Asia and monsoonal Asia: spatiotemporal differences in climate change and possible mechanisms on decadal to sub-orbital timescales.Earth Sci Rev, 192: 337–354

[16] Constantin S, Bojar A, Lauritzen S, Lundberg J (2007). Holocene and Late Pleistocene climate in the sub-Mediterranean continental environment: a speleothem record from Poleva Cave (Southern Carpathians, Romania). Palaeogeogr, Palaeoclimatol, Palaeoecol, 243(3): 322–338

[17] Cosford J, Qing H, Mattey D, Eglington B, Zhang M (2009). Climatic and local effects on stalagmite δ13C values at Lianhua Cave, China. Palaeogeogr, Palaeoclimatol, Palaeoecol, 280(1): 235–244

[18] Cosford J, Qing H, Yuan D, Zhang M, Holmden C, Patterson W, Hai C (2008). Millennial-scale variability in the Asian monsoon: evidence from oxygen isotope records from stalagmites in southeastern China. Palaeogeogr, Palaeoclimatol, Palaeoecol, 266(1): 3–12

[19] Costa K M, Russell J M, Vogel H, Bijaksana S (2015). Hydrological connectivity and mixing of Lake Towuti, Indonesia in response to paleoclimatic changes over the last 60,000 years.Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol, 417: 467–475

[20] Cruz F W, Burns S J, Karmann I, Sharp W D, Vuille M, Cardoso A O, Ferrari J A, Silva Dias P L, Viana O (2005). Insolation-driven changes in atmospheric circulation over the past 116,000 years in subtropical Brazil.Nature, 434(7029): 63–66

[21] Dean W, Rosenbaum J, Skipp G, Colman S, Forester R, Liu A, Simmons K, Bischoff J (2006). Unusual Holocene and late Pleistocene carbonate sedimentation in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho, USA.Sediment Geol, 185: 93–112

[22] deMenocalP, OrtizJ, GuildersonT, Adkins J, SarntheinM, BakerL, Yarusinsky M (2000). Abrupt onset and termination of the African Humid Period: rapid climate responses to gradual insolation forcing. Quat Sci Rev, 19(1–5): 347–361

[23] Denniston R F, González L A, Asmerom Y, Baker RG, Reagan MK, Bettis EAI (1999a). Evidence for increased cool season moisture during the middle Holocene.Geology, 27(9): 815–818

[24] Denniston R F, González L A, Baker R G, Asmerom Y, Reagan M K, Edwards R L, Alexander E C (1999b). Speleothem evidence for Holocene fluctuations of the prairie-forest ecotone, north-central USA.The Holocene, 9(6): 671–676

[25] Dong J G, Wang Y J, Cheng H, Hardt B, Edwards R L, Kong X G, Wu J Y, Chen S T, Liu D B, Jiang X Y, Zhao K (2010). A high-resolution stalagmite record of the Holocene East Asian monsoon from Mt Shennongjia, central China.Holocene, 20(2): 257–264

[26] Drysdale R, Zanchetta G, Hellstrom J, Maas R, Fallick A E, Pickett M, Cartwright I, Piccini L (2006). Late Holocene drought responsible for the collapse of Old World civilizations is recorded in an Italian flowstone.Geology, 34: 101–104

[27] Duan F, Wang Y, Shen C C, Wang Y, Cheng H, Wu C C, Hu H M, Kong X, Liu D, Zhao K (2014). Evidence for solar cycles in a late Holocene speleothem record from Dongge Cave, China.Sci Rep, 4(1): 5159

[28] DykoskiC A, Edwards R L, ChengH, YuanD X, CaiY J, ZhangM L, Lin Y S, QingJ M, AnZ S, Revenaugh J (2005). A high-resolution, absolute-dated Holocene and deglacial Asian monsoon record from Dongge Cave, China. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 233(1–2): 71–86

[29] Filippov A, Riedel F (2009). The late Holocene mollusc fauna of the Aral Sea and its biogeographical and ecological interpretation. Limnologica, 39(1): 67–85

[30] Fleitmann D, Burns SJ, Mangini A, Mudelsee M, Kramers J, Villa I, Neff U, Al-Subbary AA, Buettner A, Hippler D, Matter A (2007). Holocene ITCZ and Indian monsoon dynamics recorded in stalagmites from Oman and Yemen (Socotra). Quat Sci Rev, 26(1): 170–188

[31] Fleitmann D, Cheng H, Braun-Badertscher S, Edwards R, Mudelsee M, Göktürk OM, Fankhauser A, Pickering R, Raible C, Matter A, Kramers J, Tuysuz O (2009). Timing and climatic impact of Greenland interstadials recorded in stalagmites from northern Turkey. Geophys Res Lett, 36

[32] Fornace K L, Hughen K A, Shanahan T M, Fritz S C, Baker P A, Sylva S P (2014). A 60,000-year record of hydrologic variability in the Central Andes from the hydrogen isotopic composition of leaf waxes in Lake Titicaca sediments.Earth Planet Sci Lett, 408: 263–271

[33] Fritz S C, Baker P A, Tapia P, Garland J (2006). Spatial and temporal variation in cores from Lake Titicaca, Bolivia/Peru during the last 13,000yrs.Quat Int, 158(1): 23–29

[34] Frumkin A, Ford DC, Schwarcz HP (1999). Continental oxygen isotopic record of the last 170,000 years in Jerusalem. Quat Res, 51(3): 317–372

[35] Gagen M H, Zorita E, McCarroll D, Zahn M, Young G H F, Robertson I (2016). North Atlantic summer storm tracks over Europe dominated by internal variability over the past millennium.Nat Geosci, 9: 630–625

[36] Găinuşă-Bogdan A, Swingedouw D, Yiou P, Cattiaux J, Codron F, Michel S (2020). AMOC and summer sea ice as key drivers of the spread in mid-holocene winter temperature patterns over Europe in PMIP3 models.Global Planet Change, 184: 103055

[37] Gasse F (2000). Hydrological changes in the African tropics since the Last Glacial Maximum.Quat Sci Rev, 19(1–5): 189–211

[38] Govindan R B, Vyushin D, Bunde A, Brenner S, Havlin S, Schellnhuber H J (2002). Global climate models violate scaling of the observed atmospheric variability.Phys Rev Lett, 89(2): 028501

[39] Griffiths M L, Drysdale R N, Gagan M K, Zhao J X, Ayliffe L K, Hellstrom J C, Hantoro W S, Frisia S, Feng Y X, Cartwright I, Pierre E S, Fischer M J, Suwargadi B W (2009). Increasing Australian-Indonesian monsoon rainfall linked to early Holocene sea-level rise.Nat Geosci, 2(9): 636–639

[40] Grootes P M, Stuiver M (1997). Oxygen 18/16 variability in Greenland snow and ice with 10⁻³- to 10⁵-year time resolution.J Geophys Res, 102(C12): 26455–26470

[41] Hardt B, Rowe H D, Springer G S, Cheng H, Edwards R L (2010). The seasonality of east central North American precipitation based on three coeval Holocene speleothems from southern West Virginia.Earth Planet Sci Lett, 295(3–4): 342–348

[42] Hardy D R, Vuille M, Bradley R S (2003). Variability of snow accumulation and isotopic composition on Nevado Sajama, Bolivia.J Geophys Res-Atmosph, 108(D22): 2003JD003623

[43] Haug G H, Hughen K A, Sigman D M, Peterson L C, Röhl U (2001). Southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone through the Holocene.Science, 293(5533): 1304–1308

[44] HeikkiläM, Edwards TW D, Seppä H, SonninenE (2010). Sediment isotope tracers from Lake Saarikko, Finland, and implications for Holocene hydroclimatology. Quat Sci Rev, 29(17–18): 2146–2160

[45] Hodell D, Curtis J, Brenner M (1995). Possible Role of Climate in the Collapse of Classic Maya Civilization.Nature, 375: 391–394

[46] HolmgrenK, Lee-Thorp J A, CooperG R J, LundbladK, Partridge T C, ScottL, SithaldeenR, TalmaA S, TysonP D (2003). Persistent millennial-scale climatic variability over the past 25,000 years in Southern Africa. Quat Sci Rev, 22(21–22): 2311–2326

[47] Hopcroft P O, Valdes P J, Harper A B, Beerling D J (2017). Multi vegetation model evaluation of the Green Sahara climate regime.Geophys Res Lett, 44(13): 6804–6813

[48] Hu C, Henderson G, Huang J, Zhenghong C, Kathleen J (2008). Report of a three-year monitoring programme at Heshang Cave, Central China. Int J Speleol, 37

[49] Ji J, Shen J, Balsam W, Chen J, Liu L, Liu X (2005). Asian monsoon oscillations in the northeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau since the late glacial as interpreted from visible reflectance of Qinghai Lake sediments. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 233(1): 61–70

[50] Jia Y H, Li D W, Yu M, Zhao X C, Xiang R, Li G X, Zhang H L, Zhao M X (2019). High- and low-latitude forcing on the south Yellow Sea surface water temperature variations during the Holocene.Global Planet Change, 182: 103025

[51] Johnson T C, Brown E T, McManus J, Barry S, Barker P, Gasse F (2002). A high-resolution paleoclimate record spanning the past 25000 Years in southern East Africa.Science, 296(5565): 113–132

[52] Kaufman A, Bar-Matthews M, Ayalon A, Carmi I (2003). The vadose flow above Soreq Cave, Israel: a tritium study of the cave waters. J Hydrol (Amst), 273(1): 155–163

[53] Lachniet M S, Asmerom Y, Burns S J, Patterson W P, Polyak V J, Seltzer G O (2004). Tropical response to the 8200 yr B.P. cold event?.Speleothem isotopes indicate a weakened early Holocene monsoon in Costa Rica. Geology, 32(11): 957–960

[54] Lachniet MS, Johnson L, Asmerom Y, Burns SJ, Polyak V, Patterson WP, Burt L, Azouz A (2009). Late Quaternary moisture export across Central America and to Greenland: evidence for tropical rainfall variability from Costa Rican stalagmites. Quat Sci Rev, 28(27): 3348–3360

[55] Laepple T, Huybers P (2014). Ocean surface temperature variability: large model-data differences at decadal and longer periods.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 111(47): 16682–16687

[56] Lea D W, Pak D K, Spero H J (2000). Climate impact of late Quaternary equatorial pacific sea surface temperature variations.Science, 289(5485): 1719–1724

[57] LeGrande A N, Schmidt G A (2009). Sources of Holocene variability of oxygen isotopes in paleoclimate archives.Clim Past, 5(3): 441–455

[58] Li Y, Wang N, Cheng H, Long H, Zhao Q (2009). Holocene environmental change in the marginal area of the Asian monsoon: a record from Zhuye Lake, NW China.Boreas, 38(2): 349–361

[59] Li Y, Wang N, Zhou X, Zhang C, Wang Y (2014). Synchronous or asynchronous Holocene Indian and East Asian summer monsoon evolution: a synthesis on Holocene Asian summer monsoon simulations, records and modern monsoon indices.Global Planet Change, 116(5): 30–40

[60] Li Y, Xu L M (2016). Asynchronous Holocene Asian monsoon vapor transport and precipitation.Palaeogeogr Palaeoclimatol Palaeoecol, 461: 195–200

[61] Li Y, Xu L, Zhang C, Liu Y, Zhu G, Zhou X (2018). Temporal and spatial evolution of Holocene vegetation and lake hydrological status, China.Holocene, 28(5): 706–720

[62] Magee J W, Miller G H, Spooner N A, Questiaux D (2004). Continuous 150 k.y. monsoon record from Lake Eyre, Australia: Insolation-forcing implications and unexpected Holocene failure.Geology, 32(10): 885–888

[63] Majewski J M, Switzer A D, Meltzner A J, Parham P R, Horton B P, Bradley S L, Pile J, Chiang H W, Wang X F, Ng C T, Tanzil J, Muller M, Mujahid A (2018). Holocene relative sea-level records from coral microatolls in Western Borneo, South China Sea.Holocene, 28(9): 1431–1442

[64] McGee D (2020). Glacial-interglacial precipitation changes.Annu Rev Mar Sci, 12(1): 525–557

[65] Neff U, Burns SJ, Mangini A, Mudelsee M, Fleitmann D, Matter A (2001). Strong coherence between solar variability and the monsoon in Oman between 9 and 6 kyr ago.Nature, 411(6835): 290–293

[66] Oviatt CG, Madsen DB, Miller DM, Thompson RS, McGeehin JP (2015). Early Holocene Great Salt Lake, USA.Quat Res, 84(1): 57–68

[67] Parsons L A, Loope G R, Overpeck J T, Ault T R, Stouffer R, Cole J E (2017). Temperature and precipitation variance in CMIP5 simulations and paleoclimate records of the Last Millennium.J Clim, 30(22): 8885–8912

[68] Partin J W, Cobb K M, Adkins J F, Clark B, Fernandez D P (2007). Millennial-scale trends in west Pacific warm pool hydrology since the Last Glacial Maximum.Nature, 449(7161): 452–455

[69] Pausata F S R, Zhang Q, Muschitiello F, Lu Z, Chafik L, Niedermeyer E M, Stager J C, Cobb K M, Liu Z (2017). Greening of the Sahara suppressed ENSO activity during the mid-Holocene.Nat Commun, 8(1): 16020

[70] Repinski P, Holmgren K, Lauritzen S E, Lee-Thorp J A (1999). A late Holocene climate record from a stalagmite, Cold Air Cave, Northern Province, South Africa. Palaeogeogr, Palaeoclimatol, Palaeoecol, 150(3): 269–277

[71] Ricketts R D, Johnson T C, Brown E T, Rasmussen K A, Romanovsky V V (2001). The Holocene paleolimnology of Lake Issyk-Kul, Kyrgyzstan: trace element and stable isotope composition of ostracodes. Palaeogeogr, Palaeoclimatol, Palaeoecol, 176(1): 207–227

[72] Schewe J, Levermann A (2017). Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming.Earth Syst Dyn, 8(3): 495–505

[73] ScottL (1999). Vegetation history and climate in the Savanna biome South Africa since 190,000 ka: a comparison of pollen data from the Tswaing Crater (the Pretoria Saltpan) and Wonderkrater. Quat Int, 57–58: 215–223

[74] Shakun JD, Burns SJ, Fleitmann D, Kramers J, Matter A, Al-Subary A (2007). A high-resolution, absolute-dated deglacial speleothem record of Indian Ocean climate from Socotra Island, Yemen. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 259(3): 442–456

[75] Shaw P A, Bateman M D, Thomas D S G, Davies F (2003). Holocene fluctuations of Lake Ngami, Middle Kalahari: chronology and responses to climatic change. Quat Int, 111(1):23–35

[76] Shi J, Yan Q (2019). Evolution of the Asian-African monsoonal precipitation over the last 21 kyr and the associated dynamic mechanisms.J Clim, 32(19): 6551–6569

[77] Smagorinsky J (1963). General circulation experiments with the primitive equations.Mon Weather Rev, 91(3): 99–164

[78] Springer G, Rowe H, Hardt B, Edwards R, Cheng H (2008). Solar forcing of Holocene droughts in a stalagmite record from West Virginia in east-central North America. Geophys Res Lett, 35

[79] Stansell N D, Rodbell D T, Licciardi J M, Sedlak C M, Schweinsberg A D, Huss E G, Delgado G M, Zimmerman S H, Finkel RC (2015). Late Glacial and Holocene glacier fluctuations at Nevado Huaguruncho in the Eastern Cordillera of the Peruvian Andes.Geology, 43(8): 747–750

[80] Stein R, Fahl K, Gierz P, Niessen F, Lohmann G (2017a). Arctic Ocean sea ice cover during the penultimate glacial and the Last Interglacial.Nat Commun, 8(1): 373

[81] Stein R, Fahl K, Schade I, Manerung A, Wassmuth S, Niessen F, Nam S I (2017b). Holocene variability in sea ice cover, primary production, and Pacific-water inflow and climate change in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas (Arctic Ocean).J Quaternary Sci, 32(3): 362–379

[82] Stocker T F, Johnsen S J (2003). A minimum thermodynamic model for the bipolar seesaw.Paleoceanography, 18(4): 1087

[83] Tierney J E, Ummenhofer C C, deMenocal P B (2015). Past and future rainfall in the Horn of Africa.Sci Adv, 1(9): e1500682

[84] Tierney JE, Russell JM, Huang Y, Damsté JSS, Hopmans EC, Cohen AS (2008). Northern Hemisphere Controls on Tropical Southeast African Climate During the Past 60,000 Years.Science, 322(5899): 252–255

[85] Vaks A, Bar-Matthews M, Ayalon A, Schilman B, Gilmour M, Hawkesworth CJ, Frumkin A, Kaufman A, Matthews A (2003). Paleoclimate reconstruction based on the timing of speleothem growth and oxygen and carbon isotope composition in a cave located in the rain shadow in Israel. Quat Res, 59(2): 182–193

[86] van Breukelen MR, Vonhof HB, Hellstrom JC, Wester WCG, Kroon D (2008). Fossil dripwater in stalagmites reveals Holocene temperature and rainfall variation in Amazonia. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 275(1): 54–60

[87] Vörösmarty C J, Green P, Salisbury J, Lammers R B (2000). Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.Science, 289(5477): 284–288

[88] Wagner J D M, Cole J E, Beck J W, Patchett P J, Henderson G M, Barnett H R (2010). Moisture variability in the southwestern United States linked to abrupt glacial climate change.Nat Geosci, 3(2): 110–113

[89] Wang X F, Auler A S, Edwards R L, Cheng H, Ito E, Wang Y J, Kong X G, Solheid M (2007). Millennial-scale precipitation changes in southern Brazil over the past 90,000 years.Geophys Res Lett, 34: L23701

[90] Wang Y J, Cheng H, Edwards R L, An Z S, Wu J Y, Shen C C, Dorale J A (2001). A high - resolution absolute-dated Late Pleistocene monsoon record from Hulu Cave, China.Science, 294(5550): 2345–2348

[91] Wang Y, Cheng H, Edwards R L, He Y, Kong X, An Z, Wu J, Kelly M J, Dykoski C A, Li X (2005). The Holocene Asian monsoon: links to solar changes and North Atlantic Climate.Science, 308(5723): 854–857

[92] Wang Y, Cheng H, Edwards R L, Kong X, Shao X, Chen S, Wu J, Jiang X, Wang X, An Z (2008). Millennial- and orbital-scale changes in the East Asian monsoon over the past 224,000 years.Nature, 451(7182): 1090–1093

[93] Werne J P, Hollander D J, Lyons T W, Peterson L C (2000). Climate-induced variations in productivity and planktonic ecosystem structure from the Younger Dryas to Holocene in the Cariaco Basin, Venezuela.Paleoceanography, 15(1): 19–29

[94] Williams P W, Neil H L, Zhao J X (2010). Age frequency distribution and revised stable isotope curves for New Zealand speleothems: palaeoclimatic implications.Int J Speleol, 39(2): 99–112

[95] Xia Q, Zhao J, Collerson KD (2001). Early-Mid Holocene climatic variations in Tasmania, Australia: multi-proxy records in a stalagmite from Lynds Cave. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 194(1): 177–187

[96] Xu D, Lu H, Wu N, Liu Z, Li T, Shen C, Wang L (2013). Asynchronous marine-terrestrial signals of the last deglacial warming in East Asia associated with low- and high-latitude climate changes.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 110(24): 9657–9662

[97] Yancheva G, Nowaczyk N R, Mingram J, Dulski P, Schettler G, Negendank J F W, Liu J, Sigman D M, Peterson L C, Haug GH (2007). Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East Asian monsoon.Nature, 445(7123): 74–77

[98] Yang H, Johnson K R, Griffiths M L, Yoshimura K (2016). Interannual controls on oxygen isotope variability in Asian monsoon precipitation and implications for paleoclimate reconstructions.J Geophys Res Atmos, 121(14): 8410–8428

[99] Yang W, Seager R, Cane M A, Lyon B. (2014). The East African long rains in observations and models.J Clim, 27(19): 7185–7202

[100] Yang Y, Yuan D X, Cheng H, Zhang M L, Qin J M, Lin Y S, Zhu X Y, Edwards R L (2010). Precise dating of abrupt shifts in the Asian Monsoon during the last deglaciation based on stalagmite data from Yamen Cave, Guizhou Province, China.Sci China Earth Sci, 53(5): 633–641

[101] Yuan D, Cheng H, Edwards R L, Dykoski C A, Kelly M J, Zhang M, Qing J, Lin Y, Wang Y, Wu J, Dorale J A, An Z, Cai Y (2004). Timing, Duration, and Transitions of the Last Interglacial Asian Monsoon.Science, 304(5670): 575–578

[102] Zhu F, Emile-Geay J, McKay N P, Hakim G J, Khider D, Ault T R, Steig E J, Dee S, Kirchner J W (2019). Climate models can correctly simulate the continuum of global-average temperature variability.Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 116(18): 8728–8733

[103] Zwart J A, Sebestyen S D, Solomon C T, Jones S E (2017). The influence of hydrologic residence time on lake carbon cycling dynamics following extreme precipitation events.Ecosystems, 20(5): 1000–1014

Acknowledgement

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42077415); the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) (Grant No. 2019QZKK0202); the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA20100102); the 111 Project (BP0618001).

Supplementary Materials

are available in the online version of this article at https://doi.org/10.1007/s11707-022-1047-5 and are accessible for authorized users.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

2023 Higher Education Press

审图号：GS京（2024）1246号