Polar WRF V4.1.1 simulation and evaluation for the Antarctic and Southern Ocean

Abstract

A recent version of the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) has been upgraded to the version 4.X era with an improved NoahMP Land Surface Model (LSM). To assess the model performance over the Antarctic and Southern Ocean, downscaling simulations with different LSM (NoahMP, Noah), WRF versions (Polar WRF 4.1.1 and earlier version 4.0.3, WRF 4.1.1), and driving data (ERA-Interim, ERA5) are examined with two simulation modes: the short-term that consists of a series of 48 h segments initialized daily at 0000 UTC with the first 24 h selected for model spin-up, whereas the long-term component used to evaluate long-term prediction consists of a series of 38−41 day segments initialized using the first 10 days for spin-up of the hydrological cycle and planetary boundary layer structure. Simulations using short-term mode driven by ERA-Interim with NoahMP and Noah are selected for benchmark experiments. The results show that Polar WRF 4.1.1 has good skills over the Antarctic and Southern Ocean and better performance than earlier simulations. The reduced downward shortwave radiation bias released with WRF 4.1.1 performed well with PWRF411. Although NoahMP and Noah led to very similar conclusions, NoahMP is slightly better than Noah, particularly for the 2 m temperature and surface radiation because the minimum albedo is set at 0.8 over the ice sheet. Moreover, a suitable nudging setting plays an important role in long-term forecasts, such as reducing the surface temperature diurnal cycle near the coast. The characteristics investigated in this study provide a benchmark to improve the model and guidance for further application of Polar WRF in the Antarctic.

Keywords

Polar WRF / downscaling simulation / performance evaluation / the Antarctic and Southern Ocean

Jianjun Xue, Ph.D. candidate of State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. He mainly focuses on polar meteorology and climatology being studied using climate models. He was working for the polar version of the regional WRF model that is being developed, tested, and applied as a visiting scholar at The Ohio State University, USA from August 2018 to July 2020. His e-mail is [e-mail]

Ziniu Xiao, received his Ph.D. Degree in Atmospheric Science from Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Beijing, China, in 2006. He is the chief scientist of National Basic Research Program of China Program. Professor and director of State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics. He mainly focuses on climate dynamics, climate prediction and weather forecast, solar impact on climate systems. Dr. Xiao’s e-mail is [e-mail]

David H. Bromwich, received his Ph.D. Degree in meteorology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA, in 1979. Research Professor, Senior Research Scientist, Atmospheric Sciences Program, Dept. of Geography, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center of The Ohio State University. He focuses on global climate change in high latitudes resulting from local and tropical influences and uses climate models and atmospheric reanalyses as well as the polar version of the regional WRF model that is being developed, tested, and applied to climate variability and change problems in both polar regions. Dr. Bromwich’s e-mail is [e-mail]

Lesheng Bai, Senior Research Associate of Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center of The Ohio State University. He focuses on the polar version of the regional WRF model that is being developed, tested, and applied to climate variability and change problems in both polar regions. His e-mail is [e-mail]

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. XDA20060501) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91937000) to the first two authors. The other co-authors were supported by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) (No. N00014-18-1-2361). We are grateful to the Antarctic Meteorological Research Center (AMRC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the OGIMET database for the surface observations. We also would like to thank University of Wyoming and the Antarctic Meteo-Climatological Observatory funded by the Italian National Program of Antarctic Research for the upper-air observation data. We appreciate the use of BSRN stations data for downwelling surface longwave and shortwave radiation. Thanks for the comments from the reviewers and editors that substantially improved this article. Contribution No. 1616 of Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center.

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