Comprehensive evaluation of hydrological drought characteristics and their relationship to meteorological droughts in the upper Tarim River Basin, central Asia

Abstract

Comprehensive evaluation of the characteristics and mechanisms of droughts is of great significance to drought risk prediction and prevention. The 3-monthly scale Standardized Runoff Index (SRI-3) and 3-monthly scale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) were employed herein to characterize hydrological and meteorological droughts, respectively, within the four upper subbasins of the Tarim River Basin (TRB) during 1961–2015. The propagation of droughts was also evaluated. The hydrological drought duration (Dd) and drought severity (Ds) were determined by Run theory, and Copula functions were adopted to investigate the hydrological drought probabilities and return periods. The propagation relationships of hydrological and meteorological droughts were assessed. The results indicated that: 1) hydrological drought index (SRI-3) significantly increased in the TRB from 1961 to 2015; the increase was most significant in winter. Meteorological drought index (SPEI-3) exhibited a weak upward trend through time; 2) the characteristics of hydrological droughts varied between the subbasins; increases in the SRI were most significant in the Yarkand and Hotan Rivers, whereas the Dd and Ds of hydrological droughts were higher in the Kaidu and Yarkand Rivers; 3) Frank Copula was the most closely fitted Copula function in the four subbasins of the TRB and yielded average drought return periods of 4.86, 4.78, 3.72, and 5.57 years for the Kaidu, Aksu, Yarkand, and Hotan River Basins, respectively. The return periods in the four subbasins were generally less than 10 years from 1961 to 2015; 4) a cross wavelet transform (XWT) exhibited a significant positive correlation between hydrological and meteorological droughts, except for the Yarkand River Basin, which exhibited a significant negative correlation. Besides, the propagation relationship of meteorological droughts to hydrological droughts showed remarkable seasonal variations.

Keywords

hydrological drought / meteorological drought / Copula / drought propagation

Yanyun Xiang received her D. Sc. Degree in State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences. She is specialized in Hydrological drought, hydrology and water resource in arid area

Yi Wang is a professor in State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences. She is specialized in hydrological process research; mitigation and prevention of related water disasters under the influence of climate change

Yaning Chen is a professor in State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences. He is specialized in hydrology and water resources in arid area; eco-hydrological process; climate change in arid region; resource development and environmental improvement

Qifei Zhang received his D.Sc. Degree in State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences. He is specialized in glacier change and water resources

Hongwei Li is a graduate student in State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences. His current research includes climate change and meteorological drought in global

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Acknowledgments

The research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. U1903208); Guangdong Foundation for Program of Science and Technology Research (Nos. 2020B1111530001 and 2019QN01L682), the GDAS Special Project of Science and Technology Development (Nos. 2020GDASYL-20200102013 and 2020GDASYL-20200301003). We thank LetPub for its linguistic assistance and scientific consultation during the preparation of this manuscript.

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