Responses of a ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratio in groundwater to earthquakes in the South Baikal Basin, Siberia

Abstract

In the western part of the South Baikal Basin, spatial-temporal distribution of earthquake epicenters shows quasi-periodic seismic reactivation. The largest earthquakes that occurred in 1999 (M_W = 6.0) and 2008 (M_W = 6.3) fall within seismic intervals of 1994–2003 and 2003–2012, respectively. In the seismic interval that began in 2013, the ²³⁴U/²³⁸U activity ratio (AR) in groundwater was monitored assuming its dependence on crack opening/closing that facilitated/prevented water circulation in an active boundary fault of the basin. Transitions from disordered, high-amplitude fluctuations of AR values to consistent, low-amplitude fluctuations in different monitoring sites were found to be sensitive indicators of both small seismic events occurring directly on the observation area, and of a large remote earthquake. The hydroisotopic responses to seismic events were consistent with monitoring data on deformation and temperature variations of rocks. The hydroisotopic effects can be applied for detecting a seismically dangerous state of an active fault and prediction of a large future earthquake.

Keywords

²³⁴U/²³⁸U / groundwater / earthquake / active fault / Baikal

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Acknowledgments

We are grateful to Drew Coleman for critical reading and correction of the manuscript and also to anonymous reviewer for constructive comments. In analytical work, we used an Agilent 7500 ce quadrupole mass spectrometer in the collective use center “Ultramicroanalysis” (Limnological institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Irkutsk) and a Finnigan MAT 262 mass spectrometer of the collective use center “Geochronology and Geodynamics” (Institute of the Earth’s crust SB RAS, analyst N.N. Fefelov). The work has been prepared with the financial support of Russian Science Foundation (grant 18-77-10027).

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