Quantifying the impact of mountain precipitation on runoff in Hotan River, northwestern China

Abstract

It is of great significance to quantitatively assess the impact of mountain precipitation on inland river runoff in data scarce regions. Based on the corrected TRMM precipitation and runoff data, a variety of statistical methods were used to identify which areas of precipitation have an important impact on runoff in the Hotan River Basin, and to evaluate the effects that precipitation changes have on runoff at low, mid, high, and extremely high altitudes of mountainous areas. The results showed that: 1) From 1998 to 2015, the annual runoff showed a fluctuating upward trend with a rate of 11.21 × 10⁸ m³/10 a (P<0.05). Runoff in every season also had an increasing trend, with summer runoff the most significant at a rate of 6.09×10⁸ m³/10 a. 2) The annual runoff and precipitation changes had certain synchronization, with a correlation coefficient of 0.45 (P<0.05). Among them, the correlations between precipitation and runoff changes were highest at low and mid- altitudes, with coefficients of 0.62 and 0.55, respectively (P<0.05). 3) 65.95% of the regional precipitation at low altitudes and 48.34% at high altitudes were significantly correlated with runoff (P<0.05), while only 38.84% and 26.58% of regional precipitation levels at mid- and extremely high altitudes were significantly correlated with runoff. 4) The annual precipitation change in the basin was 1%, which would cause the annual runoff to change by 0.24%. In 1998–2015, the change of annual runoff caused by precipitation change at high altitudes was largest at a rate of −6.01%; the change rates of annual runoff caused by precipitation change in the low, mid-, and extremely high altitudes were −3.66%, −3.62%, and −3.67%, respectively. The results have significant scientific guidance for water resource management in arid basins.

Keywords

precipitation / mountainous areas / runoff / TRMM / arid region of northwestern China

References

[1] Chen Y, Li B, Fan Y, Sun C, Fang G (2019). Hydrological and water cycle processes of inland river basins in the arid region of Northwest China. J Arid Land, 11(2): 161–179

[2] Chen Y, Li B, Li Z, Li W (2016). Water resource formation and conversion and water security in arid region of northwest China. J Geogr Sci, 26(7): 939–952

[3] Deng H, Chen Y, Wang H, Zhang S (2015). Climate change with elevation and its potential impact on water resources in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia. Global Planet Change, 135: 28–37

[4] Duan Z, Bastiaanssen W G M (2013). First results from Version 7 TRMM 3B43 precipitation product in combination with a new downscaling–calibration procedure. Remote Sens Environ, 131: 1–13

[5] Gould G K, Liu M, Barber M E, Cherkauer K A, Robichaud P R, Adam J C (2016). The effects of climate change and extreme wildfire events on runoff erosion over a mountain watershed. J Hydrol (Amst), 536: 74–91

[6] Jongjin B, Jongmin P, Dongryeol R, Minha C (2016). Geospatial blending to improve spatial mapping of precipitation with high spatial resolution by merging satellite-based and ground-based data. Hydrol Processes, 30(16): 2789–2803

[7] Kummerow C, Barnes W, Kozu T, Shiue J, Simpson J (1998). The tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) sensor package. J Atmos Ocean Technol, 15(3): 809–817

[8] Li B, Chen Y, Chen Z, Li W (2012). Trends in runoff versus climate change in typical rivers in the arid region of northwest China. Quat Int, 282: 87–95

[9] Li B, Chen Y, Chen Z, Xiong H, Lian L (2016a). Why does precipitation in northwest China show a significant increasing trend from 1960 to 2010? Atmos Res, 167: 275–284

[10] Li B, Chen Y, Xiong H (2016b). Quantitatively evaluating the effects of climate factors on runoff change for Aksu River in northwestern China. Theor Appl Climatol, 123(1–2): 97–105

[11] Li B, Chen Y, Chen Z, Li W, Zhang B (2013). Variations of temperature and precipitation of snowmelt period and its effect on runoff in the mountainous areas of northwest China. J Geogr Sci, 23(1): 17–30

[12] Li B, Chen Y, Chipman J W, Shi X, Chen Z (2018a). Why does the runoff in Hotan River show a slight decreased trend in northwestern China? Atmos Sci Lett, 19(1): e800

[13] Li B, Chen Y, Shi X (2020a). Does elevation dependent warming exist in high mountain Asia? Environ Res Lett, 15(2):024012

[14] Li B, Shi X, Lian L, Chen Y, Chen Z, Sun X (2020b). Quantifying the effects of climate variability, direct and indirect land use change, and human activities on runoff. J Hydrol (Amst), 584:124684

[15] Li Y, Chen Y, Li Z, Fang G (2018b). Recent recovery of surface wind speed in northwest China. Inter J Clim, 38(12): 4445–4458

[16] Liu J, Zhang Q, Singh V P, Shi P (2017). Contribution of multiple climatic variables and human activities to streamflow changes across China. J Hydrol (Amst), 545: 145–162

[17] Liu J, Li W, Chen Y, Jing S, Ma R (2018). Analysis on desertification of degraded riparian forest in the lower reaches of Peacock River. J Liaocheng U Natura, 117(01):65–71+103

[18] Luo K, Tao F, Deng X, Moiwo J P (2017). Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff in 1981–2010 and the driving factors in Upper Heihe River Basin in northwest China. Hydrol Processes, 31(1): 90–103

[19] Luo Y, Arnold J, Liu S, Wang X, Chen X (2013). Inclusion of glacier processes for distributed hydrological modeling at basin scale with application to a watershed in Tianshan Mountains, northwest China. J Hydrol (Amst), 477: 72–85

[20] Mo S, Li Z, Gou K, Qin L, Shen B (2018). Quantifying the effects of climate variability and direct human activities on the change in mean annual runoff for the Bahe river (northwest China). J Coast Res, 34(1): 81–89

[21] Qin J, Liu Y, Chang Y, Liu S, Pu H, Zhou J (2016). Regional runoff variation and its response to climate change and human activities in northwest China. Environ Earth Sci, 75(20): 1366

[22] Rozante J, Vila D, Barboza Chiquetto J, Fernandes A, Souza Alvim D (2018). Evaluation of trmm/gpm blended daily products over Brazil. Remote Sens, 10(6): 882

[23] Tian X, Li B, Li X, Li T, Zhu M, Wang L (2019). Spatiotemporal variation of precipitable water and its influencing factors in the north China Plain during 1970–2012. J Liaocheng U Nature, 32(3): 81–88

[24] Wang H, Chen Y, Chen Z (2013). Spatial distribution and temporal trends of mean precipitation and extremes in the arid region, northwest of China, during 1960–2010. Hydrol Processes, 27(12): 1807–1818

[25] Wang H, Pan Y, Chen Y, Ye Z (2017). Linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices in the arid region of northwestern China. Atmos Res, 196: 108–118

[26] Wang R, Cheng Q, Liu L, Yan C, Huang G (2019). Multi-Model projections of climate change in different RCP scenarios in an arid inland region, northwest China. Water, 11(2): 347

[27] Xu C, Zhao J, Deng H, Fang G, Tan J, He D, Chen Y, Chen Y, Fu A (2016a). Scenario-based runoff prediction for the Kaidu River basin of the Tianshan Mountains, northwest China. Environ Earth Sci, 75(15): 1126

[28] Xu F, Guo B, Ye B, Ye Q, Chen H, Ju X, Guo J, Wang Z (2019). Systematical evaluation of GPM IMERG and TRMM 3B42V7 precipitation products in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China. Remote Sens, 11(6): 697

[29] Xu J, Chen Y, Bai L, Xu Y (2016b). A hybrid model to simulate the annual runoff of the Kaidu River in northwest China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 20(4): 1447–1457

[30] Yang P, Xia J, Zhang Y, Hong S (2017). Temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in northwest China during 1960–2013. Atmos Res, 183: 283–295

[31] Yang Z (1991). Glacier Water Resources in China. Lanzhou: Gansu Sci & Tech Press

[32] Yao J, Yang Q, Mao W, Zhao Y, Xu X (2016). Precipitation trend-elevation relationship in arid regions of the China. Global Planet Change, 143: 1–9

[33] Yin Z, Feng Q, Liu S, Zou S, Li J, Yang L, Deo R (2017). The spatial and temporal contribution of glacier runoff to watershed discharge in the Yarkant River Basin, northwest China. Water, 9(3): 159

[34] Zhang F, Zhang H, Hagen S C, Ye M, Wang D, Gui D, Zeng C, Tian L, Liu J (2015). Snow cover and runoff modelling in a high mountain catchment with scarce data: effects of temperature and precipitation parameters. Hydrol Processes, 29(1): 52–65

[35] Zhang Q, Shi P, Singh V P, Fan K, Huang J (2017). Spatial downscaling of TRMM-based precipitation data using vegetative response in Xinjiang, China. Inter J Clim, 37(10): 3895–3909

[36] Zhang Y, Li Y, Ji X, Luo X, Li X (2018). Fine-resolution precipitation mapping in a mountainous watershed: geostatistical downscaling of TRMM products based on environmental variables. Remote Sens, 10(1): 119

[37] Zheng H, Zhang L, Zhu R, Liu C, Sato Y, Fukushima Y (2009). Responses of streamflow to climate and land surface change in the headwaters of the Yellow River Basin. Water Resour Res, 45(7)

[38] Zheng J, Li B, Chen Y, Chen Z, Lian L (2018). Spatiotemporal variation of upper-air and surface wind speed and its influencing factors in northwestern China during 1980–2012. Theor Appl Climatol, 133(3–4): 1303–1314

[39] Zhu X, Qiu X, Zeng Y, Ren W, Tao B, Pan H, Gao T, Gao J (2018). High-resolution precipitation downscaling in mountainous areas over China: development and application of a statistical mapping approach. Inter J Clim, 38(1): 77–93

Acknowledgments

This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. U1903208 and 41501211). We are grateful to anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on improving the manuscript.

RIGHTS & PERMISSIONS

2020 Higher Education Press