Climate change impact and adaptation on wheat yield, water use and water use efficiency at North Nile Delta

Abstract

Investigation of climate change impacts on food security has become a global hot spot. Even so, efforts to mitigate these issues in arid regions have been insufficient. Thus, in this paper, further research is discussed based on data obtained from various crop and climate models. Two DSSAT crop models (CMs) (CERES-Wheat and N-Wheat) were calibrated with two wheat cultivars (Gemiza9 and Misr1). A baseline simulation (1981-2010) was compared with different scenarios of simulations using three Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 2030s, 2050s and 2080s. Probable impacts of climate change were assessed using the GCMs and CMs under the high emission Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). Results predicted decreased wheat grain yields by a mean of 8.7%, 11.4% and 13.2% in the 2030s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, relative to the baseline yield. Negative impacts of climatic change are probable, despite some uncertainties within the GCMs (i.e., 2.1%, 5.0% and 8.0%) and CMs (i.e., 2.2%, 6.0% and 9.2%). Changing the planting date with a scenario of plus or minus 5 or 10 days from the common practice was assessed as a potentially effective adaptation option, which may partially offset the negative impacts of climate change. Delaying the sowing date by 10 days (from 20 November to 30 November) proved the optimum scenario and decreased further reduction in wheat yields resulting from climate change to 5.2%, 6.8% and 8.5% in the 2030s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively, compared with the 20 November scenario. The planting 5-days earlier scenario showed a decreased impact on climate change adaptation. However, the 10-days early planting scenario increased yield reduction under projected climate change. The cultivar Misr1 was more resistant to rising temperature than Gemiza9. Despite the negative impacts of projected climate change on wheat production, water use efficiency would slightly increase. The ensemble of multi-model estimated impacts and adaptation uncertainties of climate change can assist decision-makers in planning climate adaptation strategies.

Keywords

DSSAT models / scenarios / adaptation / water use efficiency / climate change

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Acknowledgments

We thank the Agricultural Research Center; Soils, Water and Environment Research Institute (SWERI) for financial support. We are grateful to Dr Alex. C. Ruane (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA) for providing us with GCMs of the study area. Authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

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